Manufacturing 20/20 Prospects for a Competitive North American Economy Jayson Myers Senior Vice-President & Chief Economist, CME Manufacturing 20/20 Launched January 2004 Cross-country discussion on the Future of Manufacturing in Canada Discussion about the future of communities and the prosperity of all Canadians Led by Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters – Canada’s largest industry association What We Have Accomplished 65 meetings with over 900 senior manufacturing executives 33 community meetings involving more than 2,500 manufacturers and stakeholders Input from 15 industry associations Cross-country survey of 834 manufacturers Manufacturing Summit Issues Discussed What are the challenges facing the industry? How is manufacturing changing? What will manufacturing look like in Canada in five to ten years time? What will be Canada’s competitive advantage for manufacturers in the future? What do we have to do to ensure future business success? Importance of Manufacturing in Canada Single largest business sector in Canada Directly accounts for 18% of Canada’s GDP Every $1 of manufacturing output generates $3.05 in total economic activity – largest economic multiplier Over $580 billion in annual shipments (2004) 2.3 million Canadians employed in manufacturing Wage levels 22% above national average Accounts for 2/3 of Canada’s goods & services exports = $400 billion (2003) Accounts for 2/3 of private sector R&D in Canada Canada: Manufacturing Profile OTHER TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT 4.5% FURNITURE 2.9% OTHER 3.0% FOOD PRODUCTS 9.4% BEVERAGE & TOBACCO PRODUCTS 2.7% TEXTILES & CLOTHING 3.0% AUTOMOTIVE PRODUCTS 11.0% WOOD PRODUCTS 7.2% ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT 2.2% PAPER 6.6% COMPUTER & ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS 5.8% PRINTING 2.7% MACHINERY 6.1% FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS 7.6% CHEMICAL PRODUCTS 9.5% PRIMARY METALS 6.8% NON-METALLIC MINERAL PRODUCTS 3.1% PLASTIC & RUBBER PRODUCTS 6.0% 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 93 92 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Canada: Manufacturing Shipments 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 The Cost Squeeze 1st Qtr 2000 – 4th Qtr 2004 Selling Prices Wage Rates +17.5% Raw Materials +45.4% Payroll Taxes & Benefits +26.4% Electricity +54.2% Industrial Fuel -2.5% +138.5% Breakeven Time 8:00 7:53 7:46 7:39 7:32 7:24 7:17 20 04 20 02 20 00 19 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 7:10 What We Have Heard: Top Ten Challenges Increasing competition from China – and new opportunities! Impact of dollar appreciation More exacting customer & stakeholder expectations Problems & delays at the border Skills shortages & aging workforce Rising business costs – materials, energy, insurance Global sourcing/investment Accelerating pace of technological change Costly, slow, non-competitive tax & regulatory structure Infrastructure & reliable supply of cost-competitive energy Competing in World Markets Global markets – Global competition Competitors, partners, & customers from around the world Global sourcing – Global presence Global value chains – Increasing complexity & competition Global access to knowledge & new technologies New and more exacting customer expectations Accelerating pace of technological change Rapid pace of product commoditization Innovation & mastery of global value chains are preconditions for business success The China Factor PERCENTAGE OF MANUFACTURERS 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 LOSING LOSING LOSING MARKET SHARE MARKET SHARE MARKET SHARE IN CANADA IN THE USA IN OTHER CONTRIES CONCERNS OVER UNFAIR TRADE CONCERNS OVER INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY PROTECTION CUSTOMERS ARE RELOCATING TO CHINA PART OF A SUPPLY CHAIN THAT INCLUDES CHINA Manufacturing in the 21st Century The business of creating & delivering customer value in tangible goods – Global product and market management. Manufacturing is not just about producing things – It is about capturing the value in the knowledge inherent in customer solutions. It includes: Product Research and Development. Marketing, Design, Engineering. Value Chain Management. Production Systems & Maintenance. Innovation, Continuous Improvement & Quality Control. Market Development, Distribution, Sales, & Service. Business & Customer Financing. A System of Global Business Networks. Future Competitive Advantage? Customer Success Mastering global supply chains Knowledge management Specialized products & services Innovation – Continuous commercialization of new and improved products & processes New technologies & automation systems New business models and global value networks New market opportunities Agility & Customization Customer Value – Design, Engineering, Service, Financing Time – Product Development to Customer Delivery Lean – Products, Processes, & Enterprise Critical Success Factors Leadership Workforce Capabilities Innovation International Business Business Services & Financing Infrastructure Competitive Business Environment Manufacturing 20/20: www.cme-mec.ca/mfg2020/index.asp