US-Russian Relations:
Nuclear Arms Race
and Disarmament
Matt Rosenstein
Associate Director
Arms Control, Disarmament, and
International Security (ACDIS) at
UIUC
REES 200
October 30, 2006
“Pop Quiz”
1. What are the greatest threats to U.S.
national security today?
2. What are the greatest threats to Russian
national security today?
Objectives for This Session
Arms Race
•What hath we wrought? (“Results” of the USRussian arms race)
•How did it come to this? (motivations and
policies that explain the build-up)
Disarmament and Nonproliferation
•What steps did the US and Russia take to
reduce risk of nuclear war and # of arms?
•What are the salient security concerns today
with respect to US and Russian nuclear
arms?
What Hath We Wrought?
Only country in the world to carry out a
nuclear attack?
•United States, on Japan, WWII
•Hiroshima (August 6, 1945)
and Nagasaki (August 9, 1945)
Fat Man and Little Boy
The Destructive Potential of
Nuclear Arms: In Perspective
Event
Casualties (approx.)
Iraq war
2,800
9/11
3,000
Vietnam war
47,000
Hurricane Katrina
1,800
Pakistani
earthquake
80,000
Indian Ocean
tsunami
275,000
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Estimated that between 115,000-170,000
were killed immediately
 Twice as many more died over time
(radiation poisoning)
 95% of deaths were civilian

Hiroshima and Nagasaki




Little Boy: 13,000 tons of TNT equivalent
Most nuclear warheads today: yield between
150 kiloton-1 megaton
“Tsar bomba”: Soviets exploded a
50-megaton bomb in test (1961)
Spasm attack by US or USSR would
result in 40-75 million Soviet and
110-150 million US deaths
(RAND, 1960)
US and Soviet Nuclear Strategic
Forces, 1950-2000
US
USSR/Russia
Year Launchers
Warheads
Launchers
Warheads
1950 462
400
22*
84*
1960 1,559
3,127
144
354
1970 2,100
5,239
1,985
2,216
1980 2,022
10,608
2,545
7,480
1990 1,903
12,477
2,500
10,271
2000 1,407
7,519
1,266
6,094
2005 1,225
5,966
981
4,732
Source: Arms Control Association, Fact Sheets (2005)
*=1956 totals
Characteristics of US and Soviet
Nuclear Strategic Forces
• Both US and USSR created “nuclear
triad” forces:
• Ground (ICBM)
• Sea (SLBM)
• Air (Bombers)
Military Fissile Material Stocks
Country
Pu (tonnes) HEU (tonnes)
Israel
0.51-0.65
??
Pakistan
0.02-0.06
1.0-1.3
India
0.3-0.5
0
UK
3.2
21.9
France
5.0
30.0
China
4.8
20.0
US
47.0
580.0
Russia
95.0
773.0
Source: Albright and Kramer, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (Nov-Dec 2004)
The Arms Race: Why?
•Territorial integrity and national sovereignty
•Ideological struggle
•Capitalism vs. communism
•Liberal democracy vs. authoritarian rule
•Military prowess: nukes as visible symbol
of power
•USSR could not keep up economically
•MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction
•Deterrence
•Bargaining power / leverage in multilateral
bodies
US-Russia Arms Race:
A Brief Chronology
1942 US initiates Manhattan Project
1945 Hiroshima and Nagasaki
1949 Soviet explosion of nuclear device
1957 Sputnik
1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
US-Russia Disarmament:
A Brief Chronology
1963
Limited Test Ban Treaty
•End of atmospheric testing
•“Hotline”
•Halt proliferation to other states
1969-1972
SALT I
•Set numerical limits on missile
launchers (not warheads-->MIRVs)
1972-1979
SALT II
•Broader limits than SALT I…but
Afghanistan spoiled negotiations
US-Russia Disarmament:
A Brief Chronology
1972
ABM Treaty
•Limited each to two ABM sites (no
nationwide defense)
•Prohibited sea-, air-, space-based
systems
•Limit on qualitative improvement
•Problematic: “Star Wars”, US pullout in 2001-2
1972
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
US-Russia Disarmament:
A Brief Chronology
1991
START I Treaty
•Negotiated almost 10 years
•Reductions in launchers (max.
1,600) and warheads (max. 6,000)
1993
START II Treaty
•Further reductions; never ratified
by US Senate and Russian Duma
Soviet Nuclear Assets at Time
of Break-Up
ICBMs: 94
ICBM Launcher Pads: 54
Warheads:~225
Belarus
Ukraine
ICBMs: 258
ICBM Launchers: 176
36
HBs:
Warhead:~1,984
ICBMs: 115
ICBM Launchers: 104
HBs:
40
Warhead:~1,462
Russia
ICBMs: 1,340
SLBMs: 1,924
87
HBs:
Warheads::~11,296
Kazakhstan
SSBN Base
ICBM Base (Silo)
Mobile ICBM Base
Production Facilities
Non deployed ICBMs
Heavy Bombers
Major Destruction & Dismantlement Site
Chemical Weapons & Support Facility
Bioweapons Programs
•1960s: both US and USSR were developing
bioweapons programs
•1972: BWC: US, USSR (other actors, such
as UK) agreed to halt bioweapons research
•1992: several Russian scientists reported
work with smallpox from 1970s-1990s
•Bio program cheaper than nukes
•Grew smallpox in large quantities
•Various research efforts: aerosolizing the
virus; placed on ballistic missile
warheads…
After the Break-Up:
Proliferation and “Brain Drain”
•Concerns over safeguarding nuclear
technologies and materials
•Dysfunctional military: command and
control?
• ~150,000 scientists, engineers,
technicians employed in weapons-related
work
•1990s economic crisis meant low wages
(or back wages owed…) --> “nuclear
entrepreneurs”
•Sell their knowledge?Seek employment
in countries with nuclear aspirations?
Cooperative Threat Reduction
•Mil-mil program initiated in 1992 (NunnLugar)
•Objectives: assist FSU states in dismantling
WMD; secure WMD materials, technology,
facilities and structures; reduce threat of
proliferation
•Cooperation
•US Defense Threat Reduction Agency
(DTRA)
•1993-2003: US spent avg. of $402 million/yr
(~0.18% of total US defense budget); $4.4
billion total during that time
Cooperative Threat Reduction
in Russia
Silo Launcher Elimination
Heavy Bomber Elimination
SS-24/SS-25 Mobile
Launcher Elimination
SSBN/SLBM Dismantlement
& Elimination
Solid Propellant ICBM/SLBM and
Mobile Launcher Elimination
Liquid Propellant ICBM/
SLBM Elimination
Cooperative Threat Reduction
in Russia
Keeping out the terrorists
at Vector (biotechnology
facility, Koltsovo,
Russia)…
Cooperative Threat Reduction:
Accomplishments
•More than 6,000 nuclear weapons
destroyed
•Thousands of launchers, missiles, devices
•Removed all weapons from Ukraine,
Belarus, Kazakhstan
•Employed thousands of former weapons
scientists
•Also destroying chemical and biological
weapons
The ABM Treaty:
A Bump in the Road?
•In Dec. 2001, Bush administration gave 6month notice that US would withdraw from
treaty
•Why? US wants to develop NMD to protect
against WMD threats from terrorists, “rogue
states”
•Putin regime protested vehemently-->felt it
would limit their deterrence capabilities
(made START II levels undesirable)
•Failure of Russian diplomacy?
The ABM Treaty:
A Bump in the Road?
•SORT (Strategic Offensive Reductions
Treaty), or “Moscow Treaty” signed in May
2002
•Cut warheads to 1,700-2,200 by 2012
•Ratified in 2003 by Duma and Senate
US-Russian Arms Race Legacy:
Ongoing Concerns
•Potential for technology, materials,
knowledge transfers
•“Setting a bad example”—weapons
stockpiles and fissile materials stocks are
disincentives for India, Pakistan, Israel(?),
Iran, N. Korea, etc.
US-Russian Arms Race Legacy:
Ongoing Concerns
•Whither the United States?
•National Missile Defense
•Earth-penetrating nukes, mini-nukes
•Nuclear primacy?
•Whither Russia?
•Superpower nostalgia
•Maintain credible deterrence
•Relations with China, Iran vs. with US,
EU
Perceived National Security Threats
Today
U.S. national security
•
Terrorism
•
Proliferation of WMD
•
Rogue states (harbor terrorists,
foment extremism)
•
Regional conflicts
Source: National Security Strategy of the United States of America, 2006
Perceived National Security Threats
Today
Russian National Security Concept (2000)
•
Focus on domestic security
concerns: weak economy, organized
crime, etc.
•
Erosion of multilateral security
institutions (UN, OSCE)
•
Weakening of Russia’s political,
economic, military influence
•
Strengthening of military alliances
(NATO enlargement)
Perceived National Security Threats
Today
Russian National Security Concept (2000)
•
Foreign military bases near Russia’s
borders
•
Proliferation of WMD
•
Weakening of integration in CIS
•
Conflicts near CIS member states’
borders
•
Territorial claims against Russia
Perceived National Security Threats
Today
Russian national security concerns (2006)
•
Domestic issues: economic growth,
financial stability, demographic
problems
•
Terrorism
•
Local conflicts (ethnic, religious)
•
Proliferation of WMD
•
Lack of military readiness
Source: Putin’s Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, May 10, 2006