Presentation to the Program on the Global
Demography of Aging,
Harvard School of Public Health
Reassessing the Standard of Living
in the Soviet Union:
An Analysis Using Archival and
Anthropometric Data
Betsy Brainerd
January 29, 2007
“The greatest failed experiment in the history
of the human race.”
-- Joel Mokyr
on the Soviet Union
Did the standard of living improve in the Soviet
Union in the postwar period?
• GNP grew in every decade
• But know little about standard of living: little data; some
unfavorable trends
• Important: our judgment of the Soviet growth model depends in
part on whether growth translated into improved well-being for
the population as a whole
This paper:
• Examines alternative measures of well-being: birth weights;
child and adult heights; infant and adult mortality
• Useful supplement to traditional measures of living
standards, especially where economic data is of poor quality
and reliability
• Previously unexploited data sources
Outline:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Introduction and motivation
Related literature
Previous assessments of GNP growth and consumption in
the USSR
New data sources
Trends in height, birth weight, and mortality
Hypotheses
Conclusions and further work
Related literature:
• Economic history: heights and the ‘antebellum puzzle’ in the
US; ‘early industrial growth puzzle’ in Europe
• Comparative economics: reassessments of Soviet growth
(Robert Allen on 1928-1940 period)
• Archival research in Soviet economics and history: Paul
Gregory and Mark Harrison, J. Econ Lit Sept. 2005
• Russian mortality crisis of 1990s
Conventional measures of growth
in the Soviet Union
“The fundamental problem in evaluating Soviet growth
is data quality.”
-- Easterly and Fischer, 1994
Problems with Soviet economic statistics
• Strong incentives for overreporting output
• Methodological differences between Soviet and western national
income accounting practices
• Selective publication of data
• Shortages; poor quality of goods; lack of market prices
• Growing underground economy
Estimates of national income growth in the Soviet Union,
1928 – 1985 (annual rates of growth)
Khanin
Bergson/CIA
TsSU
1928-1985
3.3
4.3
8.8
1928-1941
2.9
5.8
13.9
1950s
6.9
6.0
10.1
1960s
4.2
5.2
7.1
1970s
2.0
3.7
5.3
1980-85
0.6
2.0
3.2
Comparisons of Soviet and Western
economic performance, 1950 – 1980
(annual rates of growth)
Soviet Union
GNP per
capita
Household
consumption
per capita
E-OECD
United States
1950 1980
1970 1980
1950 1980
1970 1980
1950 1980
1970 1980
3.3
2.1
3.3
2.3
1.9
2.0
3.7
2.6
3.2
2.6
2.1
2.3
New data sources
• Data on infant and adult mortality from the Soviet archives:
by region, urban/rural, age and sex (adult mortality) for 1959,
1970 and 1979
• Additional (limited) archival and published data on wages, health
care infrastructure, food and alcohol consumption
• Anthropometric data: birth weights and child heights across
regions, 1910s - present; adult heights from the Russian
Longitudinal Monitoring Survey
Advantages of anthropometric and
mortality data:
• More objective measures of well-being than economic growth or
consumption
• Not affected by data problems inherent in more conventional
measures
• Take into account that some economic activity is non-monetized
Insights from anthropometric data
• Adult height is a cumulative measure of nutritional status in
infancy and childhood; measures net nutrition
• Fogel and others: height can provide a wealth of information on
living standards; height and income highly correlated
• At the population level nearly all differences in average height
are due to environmental influences: can compare stature
across countries and over time
Soviet Anthropometric Data
(1) Child height data:
• Most collected by the Semashko Inst. of Public Health from
1920s to present
• 59 Russian regions and most USSR republics
• Collected in preschools and schools; at least 100 children of
each sex age each age (n = 165 on average)
• Underlying RSFSR data represent average heights of over
470,000 children
• Average child heights converted into percentiles of US growth
standards, from (old) standard US growth charts
Soviet Anthropometric Data, cont.
Possible problems with child height data:
• Researchers sometimes excluded children with “defects” and
chronic illnesses
• Urban areas sampled more frequently; urban stature is greater
on average than rural stature
• Surveys not representative of USSR or RSFSR
• If better-off children more likely to go to school, will overestimate heights (schooling became compulsory in 1958)
0
5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Height of boys age 4-15 by year of birth
as a percentile of US standards
191019151920192519301935 1940194519501955196019651970197519801985
Moscow
St. Petersburg
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
5
0
Percentile
Height of girls age 4-15 by year of birth
as a percentile of US standards
191019151920192519301935 1940194519501955196019651970197519801985
Moscow
St. Petersburg
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Figure 2a. Height of boys age 4-15 by year of birth
as a percentile of US standards
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Year of birth
Kiev
Kharkov
Minsk
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Figure 2b. Height of boys age 4-15 by year of birth
as a percentile of US standards
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
Year of birth
Tashkent
Frunze
50
55
60
Boys age 9
62
14
16
37
7
8
87163082
6 36 32
49
83
49
3
65
41
28
6
85
823075
10 18 52
6263
63 7920
62
51 51 25726
39
51
19
56
82
13
756
27 53
56
346 72
7
2
16
59
5
41 70
39
72
3184
40
23
3558
36
51
2818
19
61
3921 72
202838
10 53
42
63
26 63
59
62
58
1722
56
19
64
6443
6
19 84
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
16
16
5
10
16
79
644152
55
335
28
518 56
6
0
Percentile
Height of children in urban centers of the RSFSR
by year of birth as a percentile of U.S. standards, boys age 9
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
Year of birth
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Is This Real? Soviet Anthropometric Data, cont.
(2) Adult height data:
• Corroborating evidence: Average stature of male military
recruits born 1906 – 1910 was 167.5 cm, the 8th percentile of the
U.S. height standard for 18-year old boys
• Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, 1994 – 2004:
– Measurement of adult height (not self-reported) by exact
date of birth
– 5,476 men and 5,771 women age 22 – 55 (birth years 1939
– 1982)
– Problems: small sample; does not cover whole period of
interest
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960 1965
Year of birth
Men
1970
1975
Women
1980
1985
158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166
Women
Men
169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177
Male and female adult height by exact date of birth (RLMS),
ages 22 - 55
Other Evidence
(1) Infant mortality rates:
–
Very high pre-WWII
–
Significant decline 1945 – 1970
–
No improvement 1970 – 1980, with worsening between
1970 and 1975
0
100
200
300
Figure 7. Infant Mortality Rate, Russian Republic
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Official IMR
Estimated IMR
15
20
25
30
35
40
Infant mortality rates in Russia
1960
1965
1970
1975
Urban
1980
Rural
1985
1989
3700
3800
Figure 5a. Birthweight of urban boys by year of birth,
RSFSR republics
3600
36
3500
3400
3
64
37
64
21 21
64
87 39
7
6
59
63 28 63 37 85 58
37
53
17 17 37
16 58 7 51
6
31
83 6 84
83
58 63 37
1
40 40 72 40
83
16
1 40
23
53
87
6 59
55
55
16
30
72
75
35
82
32
1
26
39
16
16
3300
84
3200
87
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Other Evidence, cont.
(1) Life expectancy at birth:
–
Substantial increases between 1940 and early 1960s;
nearly equal to that of U.S. by 1965
–
Worsening life expectancy began around 1965
–
By 1980: gap between Russian and U.S. life expectancy:
• 8.5 years for men
• 4.3 years for women
–
Occurred in all other USSR republics
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Figure 9a. Life Expectancy at Birth, Men, RSFSR and U.S.
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Russia
Source: see Appendix 1.
Russia (estimated)
U.S.
75
Male Life Expectancy at Birth, 1958 - 2001
Belarus
69
71
73
U.S.
65
67
Lithuania
61
63
Estonia
57
59
Ukraine
55
Russia
1958
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Inequality in stature: how were the gains
distributed across the population?
1939 - 1982
1945 - 1970
1971 - 1982
Men
Women
Men
Women
Men
Women
10th percentile
.114
(.013)
.090
(.012)
.137
(.016)
.099
(.022)
.140
(.122)
.135
(.069)
Median
.106
(.009)
.089
(.009)
.104
(.015)
.096
(.013)
.101
(.082)
0.00
(.069)
90th percentile
.126
(.012)
.113
(.009)
.130
(.022)
.130
(.014)
.186
(.131)
-.086
(.142)
N
5,475
5,764
3,895
4,131
1,235
1,239
Coefficients from regressions of height on exact date of birth, converted into cm. Bold
coefficients are statistically significant at the 1 percent level or less. Bootstrapped SEs.
Fig. 8 Annual growth by percentile of the height distribution
.04 .06 .08
.1
.12 .14 .16 .18
.2
year of birth 1939 - 1982
1
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Percentile of height distribution
Men
Women
80
90
99
What caused the improvement and subsequent
stagnation in population health status?
1.
Possible explanations for improvement:
•
Development and expansion of national health care system;
particularly effective at controlling infectious diseases
•
Significant increases in female education
•
Improvement in caloric and nutrient content of the food supply
•
Urbanization (clean water, sewers, heat, etc.)
Possible causes, cont.
2.
Possible explanations for stagnation/decline:
•
Changes in diet; poor agricultural harvests
•
Increase in alcohol consumption
•
Increase in military expenditures crowding out domestic
consumption
•
Increased macroeconomic imbalances leading to decreased
availability of consumer goods
Table 5. Correlates of Adult Stature:
RLMS Results, Individuals Born 1939 - 1982 (Age 22 - 55)
Dependent variable: height in cm
A. Men
Independent
variables:
Men, non-migrants
Abortion legal in year
of birth (1 = yes)
8.13
(1.44)
8.10
(2.68)
5.81
(2.67)
6.37
(2.72)
–
Born during WWII
2.34
(1.43)
4.14
(3.05)
–
–
–
Doctors per capita in
year and region of
birth
–
–
.045
(.032)
–
–
Population density in
year and region of
birth
–
–
–
.003
(.002)
–
Avg. monthly wage in
year and region of
birth
–
–
–
–
-.975
(1.69)
Higher education
1.96
(.337)
1.61
(.541)
1.74
(.545)
1.63
(.621)
1.81
(.619)
N
5476
2198
2015
1857
1688
R2
.10
.10
.08
.08
.07
B. Women
Independent variables:
Women, non-migrants
Abortion legal in year
of birth (1 = yes)
4.55
(1.26)
4.23
(1.49)
-.219
(1.80)
-.288
(1.19)
–
Born during WWII
.446
(1.15)
-2.84
(2.74)
–
–
–
Doctors per cap. in
year and region of
birth
–
–
.068
(.023)
–
–
Population density in
year and region of
birth
–
–
–
.003
(.002)
–
Avg. monthly wage in
year and region of
birth
–
–
–
–
1.34
(1.05)
Higher education
1.16
(.249)
1.32
(.409)
1.46
(.435)
1.63
(.484)
1.25
(.531)
N
5771
2199
1977
1817
1651
R2
.08
.12
.10
.10
.09
Correlates of log change in infant mortality rates,
RSFSR regions, 1959 – 1989 (stacked)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Doctors per
capita
-.164
(.096)
--
-.023
(.121)
-.046
(.103)
Pop. density
--
.014
(.141)
--
--
% pop.
w/>sec. ed.
--
--
-.489
(.278)
-.550
(.321)
Alcohol cons.
per cap.
--
--
--
-.032
(.065)
216
.74
231
.74
216
.75
175
.74
N
R2
Other controls: crude birth rate; large region;
decade (1970-1979, 1980-1989;
1959 – 1970 is omitted decade).
30
20
0
2400
10
2600
2800
Percentile
3000
40
3200
50
3400
Figure 8a. Calories and child stature in Moscow
and St. Petersburg
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Year of birth
Per capita daily calories
Source: see Appendix 1.
Moscow
1970
1980
St. Petersburg
1990
20
0
200
10
400
600
Percentile
30
800
40
50
1000
Figure 8b. Calories from animal sources and child stature
in Moscow and St. Petersburg
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Year of birth
Per capita daily calories, animal sources
Source: see Appendix 1.
1970
Moscow
1980
1990
St. Petersburg
Conclusion: Did the standard of living rise or fall in the
Soviet Union in the postwar period?
• Given poor quality of GNP data, trends portrayed by stature
and death rates may be more believable than GNP growth
• Conventional measures of GNP growth and consumption
indicate a long, upward climb in living standards 1950-1989
• Corroborated for 1950 – 1970 by increasing child and adult
heights, declining IMR and rising life expectancy at birth
Conclusion, cont.
•
But evidence of deteriorating living conditions in the mid- to late-1960s:
– declining male life expectancy
– rising infant mortality, even in regions with reliable vital event data
– stagnation or decrease in child heights;
– slight decline or stagnation in height of men and women born in
early 1970s
•
Underlying reasons for these trends are inconclusive, but may include:
– expansion of national health system
– increased education
– declining availability of consumer goods
– increased alcohol consumption
Implications and further research
• More data on food and alcohol consumption, tobacco use
• Effect of abortion legalization on child and parent/adult
outcomes
• Effect of Chernobyl on child well-being
• Are deteriorating living conditions of the 1970s related to current
high mortality levels in Russia?