Sustainable Electric Power
Scott Norr, P.E.
EE 1001
September 22, 2015
Electric Power Delivery and
Consumption Getting More
Complex
• More Environmental Issues - SUSTAINABILITY
• Greater Population Density
• Larger Variety of Sources, Delivery Methods and
Loads
• Aging Infrastructure Undergoing Life Extension
• New Technology Blended with Old – Grid is Already
Pretty Smart
ELECTRIC DEMAND
Demand growing 0.9% per year in U.S.
Source: Energy Information Administration’s
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (www.eia.gov)
World Energy Consumption
505 Quad
In 2008
US – 5% of
population
using 20% of
world resources
Source: Energy Information Administration’s
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (www.eia.gov)
Electric Grid – Efficiency
Generation is the Weak Link
Lighting: 100 Lumps IN, 1 Lump OUT???
Courtesy of Tom Ferguson
Electric Generation Changing to
Meet Demand
• Large, Centralized Plants (Rarely, now)
• Small, Modular, Distributed Plants
• Also, Siting Renewable Generation where it
makes Sense (and Profit)
Large Plants
•
•
•
•
Environmental Issues
Fossil Fuels
Location/Siting
Outlet Transmission
HydroElectric No Longer
3 Gorges Dam –
“Clean Energy” Hoover Dam –
China – 20,000
MegaWatts
US – 2,000
MegaWatts
Eoearth.org
Large Plants (Cont.)
• We’ll See New Ideas for Big Plants:
– Coal is dirty – so … “Clean Coal”!
– Wind and Solar are expensive and intermittent:
Large-scale and Storage Needed
– Geothermal has limited application: Low-Temp
– Biomass puts pressure on agriculture: Cellulose
– Nuclear is Tricky: Gen IV Nuclear?
Clean Coal 2% Growth in all Coal Gen, 345 GW
in 2012 (Natural Gas is too cheap!!)
• Coal Gasification (Combined Cycle) - Low Emmissions
• Potential for Carbon Sequestration
WIND
25% growth, 60 GW in
2012
• Wind Generators currently very popular
(Several Thousand MWs in Upper Midwest
• More and more Cost Effective
(4 - 5 Cents/KWH)
• Not a Cure-All - never
windy when you need it most
• Difficult to Dispatch
Source: Town of Hendricks, MN
Solar Electricity
• Photvoltaics
80% growth,
11 GW in 2012
– Electricity Directly from Sunlight
– Low Conversion efficiency
– Fairly High Cost
• Solar Potential:
– US uses 100 Quad of Energy
each year
– 38,200 Quad of Solar Energy
hits the lower 48 each year
• BUT ONLY WHEN THE SUN SHINES …
New Solar Ideas:
• 3-D PhotoVoltaic Cells
– New Breakthroughs in Nano-Materials greatly
increase the effective surface area of a Solar Cell
and its ability to catch reflected light
– Theoretically 50%-70% efficient
– Very High Cost
• Solar Concentrators
– Simple Idea used in Space
– Collect More Sunlight for your Existing Cells
- Combine Solar Electric AND Solar Thermal
• Graphene??
Current Photovoltaic
Technologies
www.nrel.gov
Solar Flare
greentechmedia.com
Fire safety and Electric Safety will lead to new
regulations for Solar Panels
Houston, We Have a Storage
Problem:
Renewables
are not
“Dispatchable”
If we could
Store energy
when available
for use when
it’s not….
Courtesy of
Tom Ferguson
Energy Storage Technology:
We’re not ready yet
Source: Haresh Kamath, EPRI PEAC
Tesla Power Wall
92% “DC Efficiency”, Elon? What
about AC?
92% under ideal duty
for a NEW battery
Drops off quickly for
irregular charge/
discharge profile
Drops off to 80% with
age
Valøenaa, et. al. – “THE EFFECT OF PHEV AND HEV
DUTY CYCLES ON BATTERY AND BATTERY PACK
PERFORMANCE
Another 3-5% loss to
make AC (Inverter
losses)
Tesla Economics
Tesla adds about $0.10 per kWh to
any installation (such as solar or wind)
At present in MN, Net Metering Cost
Recovery makes this unattractive
Future changes to rates (real-time price, PP Tariffs) could
change the economics drastically!
Geothermal
5% Growth, 3 GW in 2010
• Extract Hot Water from the Earth
• Use the Hot Water (low temp) or Flash to
Steam (high temp)
• 11 GW installed capacity worldwide (2010)
• Capacity growing at 5% worldwide (5yr
Avg)
• Excellent Idea for Home Use – Ground
Source Heat Pumps
Binary-Cycle Plant (Geothermal)
Nuclear ….Is It BACK?
0% growth, 100 GW in 2012
• Updated LWR Designs are being permitted
• March 11, 2011 – Earthquake in Japan, leading to
nuclear reactor meltdown
• Next Generation Nuclear Reactors (Gen IV)
– Modular (example: 25 MW Modules), add more modules to
make a bigger plant
– Fuel Flexible – Uranium, Thorium (More abundant resource)
– A Promising Design: Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor
• Temperature moderated with Helium or Nitrogen
• Fuel encased in pebbles – ‘safe’, easy to handle
Pebble-Bed Reactor
Source:
Black and
Veatch
Levelized Electricity Costs for New Plants,
2015 and 2030
Incremental Transmission Costs
Variable Costs,
Including Fuel
Fixed
Costs
Capital
Costs
2015
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011
2030
25
DEMAND SIDE
• Conservation Through:
Market Pricing
Efficient Products
IBM Predicts the Future of
Electric Energy Use
www.ibm.com: “The future of energy and utilities”
Market Pricing
• Utilities MUST and will adapt (slowly!) to the
changing market:
- Energy Prices becoming De-Regulated
- Shop around for a better provider
- Time of Day Rates
- New Equipment to Automate Pricing:
- Smart Meters
- Smart Appliances
Minnesota Power
Time-of-Day Rate
(Pilot Program)
On-peak:
+ 1.5 cents
Off-peak:
- 3 cents
Critical
Peak:
+ 77 cents
Smart Meters
• Talks to Electric Company
• Talks to Consumer About
Hourly Prices and Hourly
Consumption
• Tells Appliances what
current Price is
• Shops Around for a Better
Rate?
Source: elster.com and en.wikipedia.org
Efficient Products
• Smart Appliances run
only when energy is
cheapest, talk to each
other and to the
Electric Utility
• Passive Solar Thermal
Designs and Devices
• Energy Efficient
Home Designs and
Ground-Source Heat
Pumps
Sustainability
• More than Conservation
• More than Smart Energy Use
• Being Responsible with ALL resources and
Preserving Them for the Future
• “7th Generation” Concept
Sustainability at UMD
umdsustain.wp.d.umn.edu
CONCLUSIONS
New Social Pressures and New Technologies are
both changing and complicating the way we
convert and use energy
In a World with 7.3 Billion People (9 Billion by
2030), We MUST become more mindful of
How and Why We Use Energy.
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf)
WEB References
• National Renewable Energy Labs
– http://www.nrel.gov/
• Electric Power Research Institute
– http://www.epri.com/
• US Dept. of Energy
– http://www.energy.gov/
• Energy Information Association
– http://www.eia.gov/