Ukrainian Crisis: Views in NATO,
Russia and Ukraine
Bruce Stokes
Katie Simmons
Director, Global Economic Attitudes
Associate Director, Research
Pew Research Center
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Established 1996
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Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts
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Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
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Survey topics: U.S. domestic politics and economic conditions, values, U.S.
image abroad, global views toward major powers, terrorism, democracy, country
conditions, aging, economy
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Since 2002, we have surveyed in 82 countries, surveying in 40 nations in 2015
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www.pewresearch.org
June 30, 2016
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Methodology
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Surveys conducted across eight NATO member countries as well as
Russia and Ukraine from April 6, 2015 to May 15, 2015 totaling
11,116 respondents
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Based on nationally representative telephone interviews in Canada,
France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom & the United States and
face-to-face interviews in Italy, Poland, Russia & Ukraine conducted
under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates
International. The survey in Ukraine excludes Luhans’k, Donets’k and
Crimea.
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The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is
±2.8% - ±4.1%
June 30, 2016
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
June 30, 2016
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European NATO Members Reluctant to Use Force to Defend Allies
If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,
do you think our country should use military force to defend that country?
56%
U.S.
53
Canada
48
EU median
Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
June 30, 2016
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Russians Express Growing Pride in Russia,
Confidence in Putin in International Affairs
100 %
Start of unrest
in Ukraine
66
A lot of confidence in Putin
52
47
63
51
42
46
37
Very favorable view of Russia
0
2007
June 30, 2016
2009
29
2011
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2013
2015
6
Ukrainians Want Donbas to Remain Part of Ukraine;
Russians Want It to Secede
Thinking about the future of the Luhans’k and Donets’k regions, would you prefer that they …
11%
Remain part of Ukraine on
same terms as before crisis
21
Remain part of Ukraine with
greater autonomy from Kyiv
35
Become independent states
24
4
2
10
Become part of Russia
10
Don't know
Ukraine
Russia
51%
33
Note: In Russia, question read “Thinking about the future of the self-declared republics of Luhans’k and Donets’k ...”
June 30, 2016
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NATO VIEWS
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Poland Most Worried about Russian Military Threat
How much of a military threat, if at all, is Russia to its neighboring countries, aside from Ukraine?
Major threat
Minor threat
Not a threat
Poland
70%
UK
53
France
Germany
June 30, 2016
8
38
44
10
34
38
15
48
U.S.
Canada
7
40
49
Italy
4%
36
51
Spain
19%
59
44
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33
42
4
8
9
Many NATO Members Oppose Supplying Ukraine with Arms Against Russia
In response to the situation involving Russia and Ukraine, do you __ NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian gov’t?
Oppose
Poland
36%
U.S.
44
45
France
42
59
Spain
66
Italy
65
June 30, 2016
46
41
UK
MEDIAN
MEDIAN
50%
43
Canada
Germany
Support
40
25
22
77
19
52
41
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Key NATO Countries Reluctant to Use Force to Defend Allies
If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,
do you think our country should or should not use military force to defend that country?
Should not
U.S.
37%
Canada
36
UK
37
Poland
49
48
48
53
Italy
June 30, 2016
53
47
France
MEDIAN
56%
34
Spain
Germany
Should
47
51
40
58
38
42
48
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U.S.-German Disagreement Over Ukraine
U.S.
Germany
%
%
Support for NATO sending arms to the
Ukrainian gov’t
46
19
+27
Support for Ukraine becoming a
NATO member
62
36
+26
Our country should use military force
to defend NATO ally against Russia
56
38
+18
Decrease economic sanctions on
Russia
10
29
-19
Support for Western countries
providing economic aid to Ukraine
62
71
-9
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Diff
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U.S. Partisan Divide on What to Do about Russia-Ukraine
Democrats
Republicans
%
%
U.S. should use military force to defend
NATO ally against Russia
47
69
+22
Support for NATO sending arms to the
Ukrainian gov’t
39
60
+21
Increase economic sanctions on Russia
23
40
+17
Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO
member
59
71
+12
Russia is a major military threat to its
neighbors
56
67
+11
Russia is to blame for violence in eastern
Ukraine
39
50
+11
Support for Western countries providing
economic aid to Ukraine
60
69
+9
June 30, 2016
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Diff
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RUSSIAN VIEWS
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Views of Russian Economy Souring
How would you describe the current economic situation in Russia?
100%
Bad
83
76
73
64
56
50
50
44
38
32
20
13
0
2002
June 30, 2016
2007
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Good
2012
2015
15
Russians Blame Sanctions and Falling Oil Prices for Economic Woes
Which one of the following is causing the most harm to our economy?
33%
33
Falling oil prices
25
Current gov't econ policies
8
June 30, 2016
Western sanctions
None (VOL)/Don’t know
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Russians Overwhelmingly Support Putin’s Foreign and Domestic Policies
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Vladimir Putin is handling …
Disapprove
Relations w/ China
4%
85
13
Relations w/ Ukraine
83
11
Relations w/ EU
82
14
Energy policy
73
23
Economy
June 30, 2016
90%
10
Relations w/ U.S.
Corruption
Approve
70
29
62
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Russian Views of Western Powers Plummet
Russian who have a favorable view of …
100 %
79
61
78
64
62
56
63
51
50
37
30
35 Germany
27
31 EU
15 U.S.
12 NATO
0
June 30, 2016
2002
2007
2011
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2013
2015
18
UKRAINIAN VIEWS
June 30, 2016
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Surveying Ukraine in 2015
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Western Ukrainians Increasingly Critical of Kyiv
Kyiv government is a bad influence
2014
2015
%
%
42
59
+17
West
28
54
+26
East
59
65
+6
Ukraine
Change
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
June 30, 2016
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Ukrainians Want Assistance from West
Do you support or oppose __ for our country?
Oppose
Getting economic aid
from Western countries
Support
17%
71%
22
Joining the EU
67
Getting arms
from NATO
32
54
Joining NATO
32
53
Joining the
Eurasian Economic 72
Union with Russia
12
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
June 30, 2016
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Eastern Ukrainians Favor Negotiations Over Military Force
To end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which one of the following solutions do you think is best?
Use military force
23%
Ukraine
19%
31
West
East
Both/Neither (VOL)
13
Negotiate a settlement
47%
17
22
40
56
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
June 30, 2016
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All Pew Research Center reports and data are
available online at www.pewresearch.org
June 30, 2016
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