Slower rate of increase in UK softwood production forecast
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SLOWER RATE OF INCREASE IN UK SOFTWOOD PRODUCTION FORECAST Annual softwood production in British forests – currently running at 4.5m m3 – will reach 8.8m m3 in the period 2002/06. This is revealed in the latest review of conifer output forecasts for Forestry Commission and private woodlands just completed by the FC and by Timber Growers UK Ltd. Compared with the previous forecasts (1982) – published in Forestry and British Timber, January 1982 – the lastest prediction implies a delay in reaching the 8m m3 mark which was previously expected in the period 1997/2001. Conifer production forecast reviews are carried out every 5 years and made for a period of 20 years ahead. They take into account up-to-date information on the physical state of the growing stock and other factors that influence the potential yield such as management regimes and the length of the rotation. The FC and private woodland forecasts are brought together by the Supply and Demand Sub Committee of the Home Grown Timber Advisory Committee and the forecast is published under the auspices of the HGTAC. The presentation of these forecasts takes account of the re-organisation of the Forestry Commission which was effective from April 1 1985 and reduced the number of Conservancies from 11 to seven. Industrial Capacity The increasing volume of the timber forecast in 1982 proved to be a major incentive to a redvelopment of the wood-processing industry following the collapse of several large consumers during the recession in the early years of the decade. Since then over £600m has been invested in green-field developments and in the re-equipping and expansion of existing sawmills and in wood-based panel manufacture. Thus, there have been dramatic changes in industrial demand, and, unlike the position in 1982, wood production is flowing forward to a soundly-based domestic industry fully capable of utilising it. There appears at present to be adequate capacity, installed and planned to absorb all the sawlogs and small roundwood coming forward up to 2000. Forestry Commission Forests The 1987 forecast has been prepared using the same methods as those in the 1982 forecast. It is based on the Commission’s current management practices and takes account of crop stability, recreation and landscape considerations. Such factors generally but not invariably have the effect of deferring yield but they may be further modified by market and contractural obligations. Further, the growing stock has been adjusted to take account of the disposal of plantations under the Commission’s rationalistation programme. For these reasons, this new forecast predicts a lower rate of increase in the volume of production. However for the first five-year period it has been decided to maintain as closely as possible the level of production which was forecast in 1982 in order to minimise the impact on industry. To achieve this, felling has been advanced (relative to the new extended optimumrotations) in most FC conservancies to some degree. Private Woodlands The wide variation in the management objectives of private owners makes the private sector forecast necessarily less precise. The forecast has been prepared by Timber Growers UK Ltd in consultation with the Forestry Commission and is based on the 1979-82 Census of Woodland updated to take account of the estimated felling and planting which has taken place since then. FC disposals to the private sector have been added to the database. The same criteria have been used in this forecast as were used in 1982 but have been modified in the light of experience. The main modification have been to increase the areas allocated to a non-thin regime based on the latest experience of windblow in upland forests. The result is believed to be a more accurate forecast. The 1982 forecast was of potential cut and took no account of retentions by estate owners for amenity or conservation or for fiscal reasons. Experience showed that this caused some confusion when interpreting the data. Therefore it has been decided to revert to the previous practice and to produce a forecast of potential removals by making a deduction of 10% from the potential cut to allow for timber unlikely to br removed from the forest. Details of the broadleaf production forecast wre published in F&BT, June 1986. How the results were computed The forecasts given here are standing volumes in cubic metres overbark. As in the past, they have been computed in three parts: first, the volume of wood of 18cm diameter and above; second, the wood between 14cm and 18cm diameter; and third, the wood volume between 7cm and 14cm diameter. As in the forecasts of 1977 and 1982, the convention has been maintained where by the volume in the 18cm category and half the volume in the 14cm to 18cm category and all the wood between 7cm and 14cm is regarded as being composed of small roundwood. Of necessity, this is a rather arbitrary division of the standing volume between sawlog and small roundwood material which in practice will vary according to technical requirements of individual customers. Expression of the forecast in terms of standing volume in cubic metres overbark also follows past convention. In order to estimate the extracted volume, allowance must be made for the gross difference between standing and extracted volumes which includes not only waste but covers the effects of different measurement methods and conventions. Where sawlogs are sold in under-bark terms, a further reduction must be made to allow for the volume of bark. Table I Forecast of average annual cut of conifer roundwood in Britain by five-year periods 1987-2006: Forestry Commission forests and private woodlands (Volume: thousand cubic metres overbark) Period Country Small Roundwood Logs Total FC 1987-91 1992-96 1997-01 2002-06 PW Total FC PW Total FC PW Total England Scotland Wales 515 620 310 435 465 80 950 1085 390 680 830 430 385 310 55 1065 1140 485 1195 1450 740 820 775 135 2015 2225 875 GB Total 1445 980 2425 1940 750 2690 3385 1730 5115 England Scotland Wales 510 670 345 530 650 125 1040 1320 470 745 875 540 510 455 85 1255 1330 625 1225 1545 885 1040 1105 210 2295 2650 1095 GB Total 1525 1305 2830 2160 1050 3210 3685 2355 6040 England Scotland Wales 515 890 370 590 785 150 1105 1675 520 860 1200 745 625 550 100 1485 1750 845 1375 2090 1115 1215 1335 250 2590 3425 1365 GB Total 1775 1525 3300 2805 1275 4080 4580 2800 7380 England Scotland Wales 525 1145 400 600 845 190 1125 1990 590 905 1585 890 805 755 185 1710 2340 1075 1430 2730 1290 1405 1600 375 2835 4330 1665 GB Total 2070 1635 3705 3380 1745 5125 5450 3380 8830 FC = Forestry Commission PW = Private Woodlands Table II Conservancy Forecast of average annual cut of conifer Roundwood 1987-1991: Forestry Commission forests and Private woodlands (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark) Small roundwood Logs Total Spruces Others Total Spruces Others Total Spruces Others Total North England East England West England 175 45 80 145 295 210 320 340 290 210 35 75 145 390 210 355 425 285 385 80 155 290 685 420 675 765 575 England North Scotland Mid Scotland South Scotland 300 170 160 265 650 300 95 95 950 470 255 360 320 255 260 230 745 210 100 85 1065 465 360 315 620 425 420 495 1395 510 195 180 2015 935 615 675 Scotland 595 490 1085 745 395 1140 1340 885 2225 Wales 235 155 390 290 195 485 525 350 875 1130 1295 2425 1355 1335 2690 2485 2630 5115 GB Total Table III Conservancy Forecast of average annual cut of conifer Roundwood 1992-1996: Forestry Commission forests and Private woodlands (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark) Small roundwood Logs Total Spruces North England East England West England 190 60 95 Others Total Spruces Others Total 145 315 235 335 375 330 225 35 90 150 440 285 405 475 375 Spruces 445 95 185 Others 295 755 520 Total 740 850 705 England North Scotland Mid Scotland South Scotland 345 205 220 345 695 325 115 110 1040 530 335 455 380 265 285 255 875 265 140 120 1255 530 425 375 725 470 505 600 1570 590 255 230 2295 1060 760 830 Scotland 770 550 1230 805 525 1330 1575 1075 2650 Wales 295 175 470 380 245 625 675 420 1095 1410 1420 2830 1565 1645 3210 2975 3065 6040 GB Total Table IV Conservancy Forecast of average annual cut of conifer Roundwood 1997-2001: Forestry Commission forests and Private woodlands (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark) Small roundwood Logs Total Spruces Others Total Spruces Others Total Spruces Others Total North England East England West England 230 65 100 165 320 225 395 385 325 320 50 105 210 490 310 530 540 415 550 115 205 375 810 535 625 625 740 England North Scotland Mid Scotland South Scotland 395 220 335 505 710 360 110 145 1105 580 445 650 457 280 440 430 1010 310 145 145 1485 590 585 575 870 500 775 935 1720 670 255 290 2590 1170 1030 1225 1060 615 1675 1150 600 1750 2210 1215 3425 345 175 520 510 335 845 855 510 1365 1800 1500 3300 2135 1945 4080 3935 3445 7380 Scotland Wales GB Total Table V Conservancy Forecast of average annual cut of conifer Roundwood 2002-2006: Forestry Commission forests and Private woodlands (Volume: thousands cubic metres overbark) Small roundwood Logs Total Spruces Others Total Spruces Others Total Spruces Others Total North England East England West England 280 60 90 180 305 210 460 365 300 390 70 130 235 510 375 625 580 505 670 130 220 415 815 585 1085 945 805 England North Scotland Mid Scotland South Scotland 430 245 445 600 695 375 145 180 1125 620 590 780 590 340 575 670 1120 335 175 245 1710 675 750 915 1020 585 1020 1270 1815 710 320 425 2835 1295 1340 1695 1290 700 1990 1585 755 2340 2875 1455 4330 410 180 590 670 405 1075 1080 585 1665 2130 1575 3705 2845 2280 5125 4975 3855 8830 Scotland Wales GB Total
