Measuring Progress Dr Paul Jelfs, Branch Head Health Information and Social Analysis Branch Australian Bureau of Statistics Is life in Australia getting better? • Who is it getting better for? – Everyone? – Some groups? • Is it getting better for some at the expense of others? What is progress? “the level of social progress or development in any country is a matter of considerable conjecture and a high degree of subjective appreciation” Donald J. Johnston, 2006 • Direct social influences on the changing wellbeing of a population • The structure and growth of the economy • The environment – as a direct influence on the wellbeing of people and the economy, as well as independent value Perspectives on measuring progress “… the gross national product measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.” Robert Kennedy, 1968 “The better an electorate is able to hold its policy makers accountable through evidence of their performance, the greater the incentive for policy makers to make better policy. And smarter indicators of progress could help society to achieve more relevant goals with fewer resources.” OECD Measuring Progress “Not everything that is important can be measured, and not everything that can be measured is important.” Albert Einstein There are many different approached to measuring progress, including: • Life satisfaction or happiness • A single composite indicator e.g. Human Development Index and Genuine Progress Indicator • A set of integrated accounts that presents social economic and environmental data in a unified system • Suite of indicators to inform judgements MAP - A Brief History • first released 2002 - Awarded The Bulletin’s Smart 100, 2003 • subsequent reports 2004 and 2006 • headline indicators updated annually on the ABS website (from 2005) • most recent update April 2009 Society The Economy Health Education and training Work Culture and leisure Family, community and social cohesion Crime Communication Transport Democracy, governance and citizenship National income Economic hardship National wealth Housing Productivity Competitiveness and openness Inflation The Environment The natural landscape The air and atmosphere Oceans and estuaries Recent results – Unemployment rate Annual average unemployment rate - Australia 9.0 8.0 7.0 % 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 97 9 98 9 99 0 00 0 01 0 02 0 03 0 04 0 05 0 06 0 07 0 08 19 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year Unemployment rate by age Annual average unemployment rate - Australia 25 20 15 - 19 15 % 20 - 24 25 - 44 45 - 64 10 65 & over 5 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 0 People working part-time or long hours People working part-time or long hours (proportion of all employed) 25 20 FT — 50 hours or more per week 15 % PT — prefer more hours 10 PT — do not prefer more hours 5 0 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 95 997 999 001 003 005 19 1 1 2 2 2 Year Recent results – Economic Hardship Average real equivalised disposable household income 140 120 Index 100 80 Low income group Middle income group 60 40 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Recent results – National wealth Year (as at 30 June) 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 $285 $280 $275 $270 $265 $260 $255 $250 $245 $240 19 98 Thousands Real national net worth per person Recent results – Air Quality Average no. of NEPM PM 10 one-day exceedences Days on which fine particle health standards were exceeded 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 10-year change in headline indicators and GDP Victims of hhld crime Victims of personal crime Greenhouse gas emissions per person Greenhouse gas emissions Air quality exceeded health standards Annual area of land cleared Threatened birds and mammals Multifactor productivity National net worth per capita Disposable income of low income hhlds National disposable income per capita Unemployment rate Vocational or higher qualification Female - Life expectancy Male - Life expectancy GDP per person -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Comparative national and local initiatives • • • • • • Community Indicators Victoria Tasmania Together NSW state plan The Basin Plan (Murray-Darling Basin Authority) COAG process Spotlight on the Pilbara International comparisons • OECD Measuring the progress of societies – OECD 3rd World Forum October 2009 • Canadian Index of Wellbeing • Community Accounts: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada Conceptual development of MAP Areas where development is required are: • Housing – affordability, housing as an economic resource, occupancy rates • Environment – appropriate measures, data availability • Democracy, governance and citizenship – measuring attitudinal perspectives • Crime and Security – broadening the focus to include security measures at a national level, data availability Wouldn’t it be good if… • We could measure subjective indicators of wellbeing • Apply the MAP indicators to smaller populations or interest groups • MAP could be used as an evidence base for change at a local level Conceptual development • An Expert Reference Group is being assembled to discuss the conceptual development of MAP • The Expert Reference Group will be made up of a number of prominent experts in related fields Turning MAP into an electronic product Challenges: • Presenting a complex report in a manageable way • Keeping the relevant background information accessible • Meeting the needs of a broad range of clients • Engaging a broad audience with varying levels of statistical knowledge Turning MAP into an electronic product Advantages • Improved navigation • Improved graphing • Key updates annually Existing MAP website Prototype of redevelopment Questions? • Visit our display • Come to the ‘Measuring Progress’ workshop • Visit our website www.abs.gov.au/about/progress Contact details Paul Jelfs, Branch Head paul.jelfs@abs.gov.au Phone: 02 6252 6690 Tracey Chester, MAP Project leader tracey.chester@abs.gov.au Phone: 02 6252 5609