Down Under to Down Wonder – an Open Australia weathers the Global storm Over the past few years the global economy has been a fascinating place…. Not so long ago things were looking pretty grim…. World GDP Year-average percentage change % % IMF forecasts 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2010 1954 1962 1970 1978 Sources: IMF; Maddison database 1986 1994 2002 Trading partner growth had been hammered right across the board Trading Partners with Well-below Trend Growth* Share of Australia’s trading partner GDP** % % 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 * More than 2 percentage points below rolling 10-year average growth, based on RBA forecasts ** Weighted using output shares at market exchange rates Sources: CEIC; RBA; Thomson Reuters 0 2009 The world witnessed one of the most drastic collapses in trade in economic history World Export Values January 1994 = 100 Index Index 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 1997 2001 Sources: CEIC; RBA; Thomson Reuters 2005 0 2009 From an Australian point of view we’ve gone from down under to down wonder……. The great escape - Australia’s economic performance was a stand out 0.6 (through-the-year GDP growth - June 2009) -0.3 -6.1 -6.0 -5.9 -7.5 -5.5 -5.5 -5.2 -4.8 -4.2 -4.2 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.5 -3.2 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -2.0 -7.2 Australia Greece Switzerland New Zealand Korea Norway France Canada Singapore Portugal Hong Kong SAR United States Belgium Spain Euro Zone Netherlands United Kingdom Czech Republic Germany Italy Sweden Japan Taiwan -8.9 Finland 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 Per Cent GDP growth of IMF advanced economies Per Cent 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 Especially in the labour market Australia has performed well by OECD standards The old labour market story in the north atlantic economies is not reflected in the evidence Unemployment Rate % % 10 10 Euro area 8 8 US 6 6 4 4 Higher-income Asian economies 2 2 0 0 2000 2002 2004 Sources: CEIC; Thomson Reuters 2006 2008 2010 The great trade reforms of the past 25 years gave us a good base to withstand the GFC At times like these, there’s a lot of anxiety about trade issues and globalisation….. Trade has been associated with higher living standards Australia’s attitude towards Asia: ‘Once were worriers’ because of the ‘The Tyranny of Distance’ We are now in the right place at the right time: ‘The Tyranny of distance’ has been replaced by ‘The Power of Proximity’ Japan’s economic development has partially driven Australia’s export growth in the past Now it will be China, India and ASEAN who will drive much of our export growth in the 21st century China’s demand has helped to promote Australia’s prosperity…… Shanghai of the tiger: China is leading the charge in North Asia With a little bit of help from my assigned translator Sent airborne by Australia’s first female Prime Minister…. Doing it tough…with Kate Fischer and Pru Goward To stimulate or not to stimulate: some fiscal packages have been effective - ‘bamboo shoots’ as much as ‘green shoots’ China – Industrial Production 2005=100 Index Index 180 180 Automobiles 160 160 140 140 120 120 Steel Power generated 100 100 80 60 80 2004 Source: CEIC 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 60 Looking west, there’s room to grow income-wise China – Regional Income Levels Per cent of nationwide average in 2008 Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Zhejiang Jiangsu Guangdong Shandong Inner Mongolia Liaoning Fujian Jilin Hebei Heilongjiang Shanxi Xinjiang Hubei Henan Shaanxi Chongqing Ningxia Hunan Qinghai Hainan Sichuan Guangxi Jiangxi Anhui Tibet Yunnan Gansu Guizhou 0 50 100 Eastern Source: CEIC 150 % Central 200 250 Western 300 Exporter confidence in China remained high during the GFC South & Central America (n=107) 63% 25% 11% South East Asia (ASEAN) (n=285) 62% 27% 11% China (n=193) 61% India and other South Asia (n=129) 59% Africa (n=114) 59% Hong Kong (n=139) 51% Europe (n=222) 50% Middle East (n=145) 49% Taiwan (n=73) 46% Pacific (n=112) 46% UK (n=207) 43% Korea (n=94) 42% Japan (n=129) 26% 36% 15% 10% 35% 25% 54% New Zealand (n=233) 13% 27% 55% North America (n=291) 12% 27% 21% 12% 37% 31% 19% 25% 26% 12% 42% 14% 40% 21% 36% 41% 16% 36% 28% Increase Stay same Decrease Even in terms of SMEs China is a chart buster New Zealand 34% United States 29% United Kingdom 26% Net ASEAN 20% China 13% Hong Kong 11% South Africa 10% Japan 9% Malaysia 8% Phillipines 8% Singapore 7% Where the bolly hell are you? India has shot up like a 2020 game Australian Exports to India Share of total, current prices % % 6 6 4 4 Share of merchandise exports 2 2 Share of services exports 0 92/93 Source: ABS 96/97 00/01 04/05 0 08/09 Gilly is going into bat for the ‘Gong Australia’s financial institutions have remained robust Credit ratings of the largest 100 banking groups Total assets, $US billion, log scale 10000 Total assets, $US billion, log scale 10000 Australia's four largest bank holding companies 1000 1000 100 100 10 10 AAA AA AA- A+ A A- Given the GFC and the ‘recession porn’ faced our exporters have been a global surprise package Export Volumes Growth* Nine months to June quarter 2009 % % 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 * Includes June quarter estimates where data are not available ** Merchandise only Sources: ABS; Bundesbank; CEIC; National Statistics Office; RBA; Thomson Reuters A quiet revolution - Australia has built a strong ‘heartland’ of true blue exporters Non-Exporters ‘Domestic Businesses’ Exporters/ Non-Exporters ‘Opportunistic/ Irregular’ Exporters ‘Heartland’ Australian exporters kept their nerve Change in export orders Net Change Last 12 mths (n=844) Last 3 mths (n=846) Next 3 mths (n=812) 47% 21% 32% 15% (actual) 29% 32% 43% 39% 24% - 10% (actual) 33% + 10% (expected) + 40% (expected) Next 12 mths (n=800) 60% Increase 19% Stay the same Short-term prospects: (3 months) Medium-term prospects: (12 months) NB: Don’t know responses have been excluded from the analysis g g 20% Decrease Negative export growth but increasing Positive export growth and accelerating 33 Australian exporters were positive about employment Company profitability Wage increase Number of employees Decrease 8% Decrease 25% Stay same Yes 47% 69% Increase 59% No 31% Increase 45% Stay same 16% More than half of the exporters (59%) are optimistic regarding their profitability over the next 12 months expecting it to increase. Almost half of the exporters (47%) are planning to keep the staff numbers the same while 45% of exporters are likely to increase their staff head count. Wage increases are likely in over two thirds of the exporters (69%). 34 Australian exporters and workers were flexible in terms of hours Average Hours Worked Mid-month of quarter Hrs Hrs 34.8 34.8 34.6 34.6 34.4 34.4 34.2 34.2 34.0 34.0 33.8 33.8 33.6 2003 Source: ABS 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 33.6 Now our trading partner growth has bounced back East Asia has been an important part of that story The emerging economies are really geeing up the G7 There’s plenty of action for Australian exporters in the emerging world (source: UBS) 70 % share of goods exports Developing 60 50 Advanced 40 Developing ex China 30 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Easy rider: Steppe-ing out in Mongolia Australia’s strength in Asia is a good story for northern hemisphere investors A good airport economist knows that Australian exports are well diversified Taking a walk on the supply side There are now new challenges that require skillful economic management Demography is destiny? Population m China m Japan 100 1 200 Total 50 600 Working age m India m Korea 1 200 40 600 20 0 l 1970 l 1995 Source: United Nations l 2020 l 2045 1970 l 1995 l 2020 0 2045 Japan: Land of the greying sun? China: getting old before they get rich? India: Poppadom preach? Many experienced exporters have survived crises before 37% 21% 20% 17% 4% up to 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20+ years SOURCE: Sensis® Business Index Despite some Gen X and Gen Y growth, global SMEs are mainly run by baby- boomers 39% 27% 20% 13% 1% up to 30 years 31 to 40 years 41 to 50 years 51 to 60 years 60+ years The GFC shook most of the world…. In Australia we’ve been successful as we’ve married an open economy to successful social reform One big happy free trade agreement…… Down Under to Down Wonder – an Open Australia weathers the Global storm