Zocalo
Developing Open Source Prediction Market
Software
Chris Hibbert
CommerceNet Labs
DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices
4 February 2005
Zocalo: Challenges
• My Objective:
• Promote broader use of Prediction
Markets
• Our Opportunity:
• CommerceNet is starting an e-commerce
lab.
• One Key Obstacle:
• No common software platform for
prediction markets yet.
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
2
DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Zocalo: A Proposal
• Our Proposed Solution:
• Catalyze development of an Open Source
toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets.
• Call to Action:
• Identify promising “wheels to stop reinventing.”
• Collaborate with us on your next
experiment.
• Help us make the case to CommerceNet.
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
3
DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Outline
• My Background and Incentives
• Why me?
• The Target Markets for Zocalo
• Who should care?
• Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already?
• Benefits of Open Source
• Design for Flexibility
• Benefits of Working with CommerceNet
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
4
DIMACS, 4 February 2005
My Background
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MIT, Xerox PARC
Managed S/W Development for 12 Years
• Teams of 3 to 15 people
• E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc.
• Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste
Secure EMail Server, recently sold to
Microsoft
Extensive Experience with Electronic
Commerce
• Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs.
• Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks)
Strong background in Economics
Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
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DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Target Audiences
.edu
Econ Departments
Show how markets work
.com
Business
CommerceNet
.org
SimonMarket.org
Planning, Trading
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
Policy Discussion
6
DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Why Aren’t Prediction
• Researchers focus on running experiments:
Market
Toolkits
Available?
• Little reward for publishing software.
• Toolkits emerge once experiments are
systematized
• Corporate users develop proprietary
solutions:
• Consulting, not general-purpose
infrastructure.
• CommerceNet’s motivation is different:
• Its research focus is software
engineering.
• Has track record of sharing software that
new markets
for electronic
© 2005 Chris creates
Hibbert
DIMACS, 4 February 2005
7
Benefits of Open Source
• Open Source Packages Best Practices and
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Makes it Accessible
Later Users can Add Value to the
Foundation
Every Econ or Business Student Should
Learn How to Put Together a Market
Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and
Apply Markets in More Ways
Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS
project
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
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DIMACS, 4 February 2005
The Zocalo Toolkit Design
•
Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools
• Support CDA and Call Markets
• Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities
• Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods
•
Support for Experiments
• Instrument all Activity
• Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis
•
Apply Current S/W Development Approaches
• Flexible Support for UIs
• Scalability, Decentralization, Security
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
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DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Who is CommerceNet?
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10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money
Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-Commerce
Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups to
Create Common Tools
• e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience
Measurement
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Fosters Entrepreneurs
Creating a New Software Research Lab
• Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce
• zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
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DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Project Phases
•
First Step:
• Collect Requirements
• Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters
• Demonstrate Reuse
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Short Term:
• Expand Variety of Market Institutions
• Ensure Easy Configurability
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Medium Term:
• Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses
• Develop support for Confederations of Markets
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Long Term:
• Deploy Public Markets with Partners
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
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DIMACS, 4 February 2005
Collaboration Possibilities
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Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths
We are Looking for Partners
• (S/W Developers, Experimenters,
Entrepreneurs)
• Express Your Interest
• Describe Your Needs
• Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market
•
White Paper available in February
chris.hibbert@commerce.net
• http://zLab.Commerce.Net
• http://blog.Commerce.Net
© 2005 Chris Hibbert
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DIMACS, 4 February 2005