A Knowledge Based Approach to
Community Planning
Dr. Patricia Byrnes
Patrick Curry
Arwiphawee Srithongrung
What does Dilbert have to say?
What is Planning?

Planning consists of defining the important
objectives an organization needs to achieve
and determining how it plans to achieve
them.
Purposes and Types of Planning

Strategic Visioning
– Identify and describe widely held values and use them
as a platform setting goals.

Strategic Planning
– To set the direction of the organization to improve its
prospects for long-term survival.

Operational Planning
– The tactical details of how an organization is to be run
over a short period of time

Project Planning
– Detailed identification and sequencing of all tasks to
complete a project.
Problems with Planning
No mechanism exists for recognizing the
difference between reality and predictions
 Goals are set arbitrarily
 Failure to focus on high-leverage goals
 Planned activities are not designed to
accomplish goals
 There is no “Shared Vision” of the
organizations future

Essential Definitions
Data - recorded observations of real
world phenomena
 Information - level of knowledge needed
to solve a problem or show patterns
 Intelligence - essential factors selected
from information and data
 Knowledge - total concept of data,
information, and intelligence with
feedback loop

Process for Identifying Data Needs






Define the problem
Decide on the geographic scope and detail
Pinpoint and define the specific variables (data) you
will need
Establish the time period(s) for which you need the
data
Decide on the presentation methods (tables, charts,
maps, or a combination)
Establish cost and quality parameters for the data
What do Economic Developers Do
Create employment opportunities
 Increase wealth and income
 Increase the tax base

How do they do it
Retention and expansion of existing
businesses
 Attract new business
 Support entrepreneurship
 Other…

Population losses experienced in recent decades
are likely to continue.
Population reached a peak in 1920 (41,403)
since 1920 the county experienced losses
each Census except 1970 to 1980
 The current population is 28,900 excluding
the prison
 Projections show slight declines of less than
1% over the next five years
 The rate of migration is very low, not many
new faces in town!

Population Pyramids
With Prison Population
Without Prison Population
80-84
80-84
70-74
70-74
60-64
60-64
50-54
50-54
40-44
40-44
30-34
30-34
20-24
20-24
10-14
10-14
0-4
0-4
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Male
Female
The 65+
population is large
but declining
Baby Boomers –Will they
stay or go?
Brain Drain
School age children
will slowly decline
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
An increasing number of workers are
crossing county boundaries to find
employment.
 Your neighbor, Macoupin County, is now a
metro county.
 Commuting is a two way street. The
number of workers commuting into
Montgomery county increased at the same
time the number of persons commuting
outside the county increased.
Montgom ery County's 1980-2000 Resident Workers' Profile
90%
81%
80%
74%
70%
% Total Reported Workers
70%
60%
50%
40%
31%
30%
20%
1980
26%
1990
2000
19%
2000
1990
10%
1980
0%
% Workers Working in County of Residence
% Workers Working Out of County of Residence
Montgomery County Resident Worker Profile
1980
1990
2000
Number of
Reported Workers
11,446
12,283
12,776
Number of People
Working in County
of Residence
9,262
9,109
8,843
(80.92%)
(74.16%)
(69.22%)
2,184
3,174
3,933
(19.08%)
(25.84%)
(30.78%)
% Workers
Working in County
of Residence
Number of People
Working Outside
County of
Residence
% Workers
Working Out of
County of
Residence
The labor force is growing even though the
county population is shrinking.
More residents work now than ever before
primarily because of the age structure of the
population and an increase in the proportion
of females working.
 BUT the County still has a relatively low
labor force participation rate when
compared with the rest of Illinois.

Population By Em ploym ent Trends (2000 Census-2008 Projection)
70%
63%
60%
57%
53%
59%
57%
63%
61%
61%
58%
53%
50%
43%
44%
40%
40%
40%
38%
38%
33%
34%
35%
35%
30%
20%
10%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
4%
4%
2000
2008
2000
2008
2000
2008
2000
2008
2000
2008
0%
Montgom ery
County
Surrounding Area
Rural Illinois
Sangam onMadison
S o u r c e : U S C e n su s B u r e a u , P o p u l a t i o n b y
Em p l o y m e n t T r e n d s
Civilian Employed
Civilian Unemployed
Not In Labor Force
Illinois
The number of full and part-time jobs has
increased in recent years but long term has
tracked national cycles.
Montgomery County's 1980-2000 Full-Time and Part-Time Employment
Changes
18.00%
16.00%
15.40%
Illinois
14.00%
13.50%
12.50%
13.30%
% Changes
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
Rural Illinois
4.30%
2.00%
Montgomery
0.00%
-0.70%
1980-1990
1990-2000
-2.00%
Decade
Montgomery
Rural IL
IL
The labor force has many characteristics
indicating the area may not be attractive to the
employers of the future
 Educational attainment level are
improving but are still below averages for
rural Illinois and the State.
 In particular the proportion of college
educated persons is low, less than one half
the Illinois average.
 The prison population is included!
 Occupation?????
Educational Attainment
Montgomery
Surrounding
Rural Counties
Sangamon
Rural
Illinois
Illinois
% HS or Higher
76.9%
79.2%
88.0%
80.5%
81.4%
Some college, no
degree
20.1%
20.8%
21.8%
21.9%
21.6%
Associate degree
4.7%
5.6%
6.7%
6.9%
6.1%
Bachelor's
degree
7.5%
7.7%
18.2%
9.5%
16.5%
3.5%
3.7%
10.3%
4.9%
9.5%
Graduate or
professional
degree
Annually Median Wages and Total Employment for Employing Occupations in Montgomery County
SOC
CODE
43-0000
OCCUPATIONAL TITLE
Office and administrative support occupations
Construction, extraction, and maintenance
47-0000 occupations:
51-0000 Production occupations
41-0000 Sales and related occupations
Transportation and material moving occupations:
53-0000
Management occupations, except farmers and
11-0000 farm managers
Food preparation and serving related
35-0000 occupations
Education, training, and library occupations
25-0000
EMPLOYMENTS
(TOTAL = 12,951)
NUMBER % TOTAL
ANNUALLY MEDIAN WAGE
MONTGOMERY
MACOUPIN
SANGAMON
ILLINOIS
1,908
14.7%
18,977
28,572
26,626
26,478
1,520
11.7%
39,764
38,723
43,389
46,593
1,312
1,299
10.1%
10.0%
23,853
24,242
24,409
24,631
14,551
18,830
19,016
20,818
1,033
8.0%
26,435
26,564
23,260
25,224
814
6.3%
52,270
44,830
59,678
64,524
733
5.7%
14,022
14,355
15,316
14,527
665
5.1%
24,159
34,633
31,062
36,946
M ont gom e r y C ount y ' s A nnua l M e di a n Wa ge by M a j or Oc c upa t i ons
L i f e , P h y s i c a l , a n d So c i a l Sc i e n c e O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 52, 718
M a n a g e me n t O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 52, 270
C o mp u t e r a n d M a t h e ma t i c a l O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 46, 066
Legal Occupat i ons
$ 45, 512
B usi ness and Fi nanci al Oper at i ons Occupat i ons
$ 41, 755
C onst r uct i on and E xt r act i on Occupat i ons
$ 39, 764
I nst al l at i on, M ai nt enance, and R epai r Occupat i ons
$ 34, 062
H eal t hcar e P r act i t i oner s and T echni cal Occupat i ons
$ 29, 800
C o mmu n i t y a n d So c i a l Se r v i c e s O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 27, 847
T r anspor t at i on and M at er i al M ovi ng Occupat i ons
$ 26, 435
E ducat i on, T r ai ni ng, and Li br ar y Occupat i ons
$ 24, 159
P r oduct i on Occupat i ons
$ 23, 853
P e r s o n a l C a r e a n d Se r v i c e O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 19, 581
O f f i c e a n d A d mi n i s t r a t i v e Su p p o r t O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 18, 977
H e a l t h c a r e Su p p o r t O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 17, 063
A r t s , D e s i g n , E n t e r t a i n me n t , Sp o r t s , a n d M e d i a
$ 15, 169
Occupat i ons
B ui l di ng and Gr ounds C l eani ng and M ai nt enance
$ 14, 788
Occupat i ons
Sa l e s a n d R e l a t e d O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 14, 551
F o o d P r e p a r a t i o n a n d Se r v i n g - R e l a t e d O c c u p a t i o n s
$ 14, 022
$0
$ 10, 000
$ 20, 000
$ 30, 000
So u r c e : I l l i n o i s D e p a r t me n t o f E mp l o y me n t Se c u r i t y , E c o n o mi c I n f o r ma t i o n a n d A n a l y s i s
$ 40, 000
$ 50, 000
$ 60, 000
The structure of the economy has changed
dramatically over the last 20 years.




Montgomery County’s economy reflects national
trends with fewer workers producing more output
Basic industries, those exporting products and
importing income, are agriculture, mining, and
communication and public utilities.
Natural resource industries, including mining and
agriculture, experienced dramatic declines in
employment in the 1990’s
The service sector of the economy emerged as the
dominant sector in the 1990’s
Montgomery Employment Trends by Sectors
30%
% Total Employment
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1980
1990
2000
Mining
5%
1%
2%
Manufacturing
16%
19%
14%
Transportation and public utilities
6%
7%
7%
16%
17%
17%
6%
5%
7%
18%
24%
28%
13%
Year
13%
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, and real
estate
Services
Source: Bureau of economic Analysis, CA 05 2000 Personal Income
10%and SIC
Government
and government
enterprises
Montgom ery County's Net Im port/Export Businesses
13.4
Government
-72.3
These charts illustrate
the extraordinary
differences in the
economic base of
Montgomery County
and Illinois.
EXPORT SECTOR
Services
-38.5
-57.5
FIRE
Trade
66.5
TCPU
-40.6
Manufacture
-24.7
Construction
27.6
Mining
61.1
Agriculure
IMPORT SECTORS
-80.0
Note the dominance of
natural resource
industries in
Montgomery
compared to finance
and services in
Illinois.
Montgomery
County
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
Illinois Im port/Export Business Sectors
Millinois of Dollars
40.0
60.0
80.0
Source: IMPLAN Pro 2000 Database
Government
-888.8
Government
-888.8
Services
8325.5
13691.8
FIRE
Trade
7416.6
TCPU
4677.6
2129.0
Manufacturing
-6596.8
Construction
-9461.2
Illinois
Mining
-3477.9 Agriculture
-15000.0
-10000.0
-5000.0
0.0
Millions of Dollars
5000.0
10000.0
15000.0
Montgom ery Em ploym ent Trends by Sectors
30%
25%
% Total Employment
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1980
1990
2000
Mining
5%
1%
2%
Manufacturing
16%
19%
14%
6%
7%
7%
16%
17%
17%
6%
5%
7%
18%
24%
28%
Transportation and public
utilities
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, and
real estate
Services
10%
13%
Government and
government enterprises
Source: Bureau of economic Analysis, CA 05 2000 Personal Income
Yearand SIC
13%
The housing stock is old and housing values
are low.
47% of housing units were constructed
prior to 1950 compared to 40% for Rural
Illinois and 32% for the State
 Lowest median value for owner occupied
housing ($54,767) when compared with
neighboring counties ($64,366), Rural
Illinois ($70,504), and the State ($130,829)

The low income profile will influence many
facets of the county economy and
institutional infrastructure.




All measures of personal income are below those
for neighboring counties, rural Illinois, and
Illinois. Poverty rates are above the State average.
Diminished buying power and disposable income
will restrict growth in retail sales.
The willingness to invest in local institutions like
schools, parks, health care, and infrastructure may
also be limited.
Local financial resources for investment in
entrepreneurial endeavors may also be limited.
Per Capita Income 1990 and 2000
$25,000
$ 22,937
$20,000
Illinois
$15,000
$14,810
Rural Ilinois
$17,530
$15,262
$11,315
$10,000
Montgomery
$10,474
$5,000
$0
1990 PER CAPITA
2000 PER CAPITA
1990-2000 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
1990 MEDIAN
HH. INCOME
2000MEDIAN HH.
INCOME
GROWTH
RATE
Montgomery County
$23,909
$33,433
39.83%
Macoupin County
$24,031
$36,412
51.52%
Surrounding Region
$24,208
$36,116
49.19%
Rural IL
$24,710
$36,621
48.20%
Sangamon-Madison
$30,172
$42,427
40.62%
Illinois
$30,431
$43,190
41.93%
What does it all mean?





Montgomery County’s future is as dependent on what
happens in the surrounding counties as it is on what
happens at home.
In the next five years the county is likely to continue to
experience population decline and erosion of buying
power because of low incomes.
Strategy development should focus on population growth
and increasing per capita incomes.
Although many jobs have been created in the County they
are primarily in the service sector where wages are low
and benefits limited.
Reversing long term structural changes in the local
economy and work force will take time.