SUB REGIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN DANIEL TITELMAN ANDRAS UTHOFF ECLAC PRESENTED AT THE SEMINAR ON REGIONAL FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS DESA/ECLAC NEW YORK 14-15 JULY 2004 LAC countries face old and new financial constraints: Low domestic savings (particularly long term) LAC: Saving and Investment (Current prices) 24 Gross investment 22 20 Porcentaje del PIB 18 16 14 12 National Savings 10 8 6 4 2 Foreign savings 0 -2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 LAC countries face old and new financial constraints: Low domestic savings (particularly long term) Shallow and underdeveloped financial markets – – – – Mainly banking Weak financial intermediation Highly segmented Short term oriented M3/GDP M3/PIB Latin America Developed Countries 120 100 80 60 40 20 2000-2002 1994-1999 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 0 SME interest rates vs prime rates Colombia Perú Uruguay Chile Argentina Brasil 1995 28.54 35.08 2996 27.77 27.91 1997 26.24 16.13 1998 18.80 19.96 1.37 37.09 1999 17.50 17.06 4.00 37.85 2000 17.43 15.35 3.53 33.59 2001 16.55 5.79 36.27 2002 18.46 6.01 42.01 36.62 13.05 2003 19.58 7.27 41.71 26.46 12.07 LAC countries face old and new financial constraints: Low domestic savings (particularly long term) Shallow and underdeveloped financial markets – – – – Mainly banking Weak financial intermediation Highly segmented Short term oriented Financial volatility has been added to the terms of trade volatility Economic cycle is increasingly dependant on capital inflows volatility Latin America Net Capital inflows and GDP growth 8.00 6 Growth rate (weighted average) 7.00 capital inflows /GDP 5 6.00 Goowth rate 4 4.00 3 3.00 2.00 2 1.00 1 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 -1.00 1990 0.00 América Latina includes: Argentina. Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haití, Honduras, México , Nicaragua, Panamá, Paraguay, Perú, Uruguay y Venezuela. 0 Capital inflows/GDP 5.00 Subregional financial institutions created in the 60’s and 70’s to foster development Traditional objectives – Promote intrarregional trade linkages – Complement domestic savings and financial markets development – Provide long term financing for productive investment – Support balance of payments New objectives – Leveling the field for financial integration – Short term financing for crisis prevention and management – Bargaining power Subregional Financial Institutions Andean Countries BOLIVIA COLOMBIA ECUADOR Central American Common Market PERU VENEZUELA CAF - ANDEAN DEVELOPMENT BANK CREATED 1968 COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR GUATEMALA CABEI - CENTRAL AMERICAN BANK FOR ECONOMIC INTEGRATION CREATED 1961 HONDURAS NICARGUA CARICOM - Caribbean Common Market BARBADOS, BELICE, GUYANA, JAMAICA, SURINAME, T.y TOBAGO, Ay B, DOMINICA, GRENADA, MONTESERRAT, ST.KITTS, ST.LUCIA, ST.VICENT CARIBBEAN DEVELOPMENT BANK CREATED 1969 BOLIVIA COLOMBIA COSTA RICA ECUADOR PERU VENEZUELA LATIN AMERICAN RESERVE FUND CREATED 1978 COSTA RICA JOINT 1991 Objectives Subregional development banks to foster economic development by – Financing productive and social investment Loans approved by regional and sub regional development banks millions USD Andean countries CAF IDB World Bank TOTAL CAF/TOTAL 1991-1999 19,654 12,933 9,257 41,844 47 2000 2,323 925 1,227 4,475 52 2001 3,197 1,419 498 5,114 63 2002 3,290 927 632 4,849 68 1994-1999 3,631 3,482 1,911 9,024 40 2000 327 326 187 840 39 2001 399 608 471 1,478 27 2002 570 626 417 1,613 35 1993-1999 736 1,467 682 2,885 26 2000 183 262 50 495 35 2001 106 196 115 416 25 2002 122 149 176 448 27 MCCA BCIE BID BANCO MUNDIAL TOTAL BCIE/TOTAL CARICOM BDC BID BANCO MUNDIAL TOTAL BDC/TOTAL Loans approved by regional and sub regional development banks % GDP 1991-1999 Andean Community CAF/GDP 1.0 WB+IDB/GDP 1.2 IED/GDP 2.5 2000 2001 2002 0.8 0.8 3.0 1.1 0.7 3.1 1.2 0.6 1.9 MCCA 1994-1999 CABEI/GDP 1.3 WB+IDB/GDP 1.9 IED/GDP 2.2 2000 0.6 0.9 2.3 2001 0.6 1.8 2.5 2002 0.9 1.6 2.5 CARICOM 1993-1999 CDB/GDP 0.5 WB+IDB/GDP 1.7 IED/GDP 5.3 2000 0.9 1.3 5.9 2001 0.6 1.5 7.2 2002 0.5 1.5 1.1 SHAREHOLDERS 2002 CDB's Sharholders China Co lo mbia 8% 1% Germany 7% M exico 1% Co lo mbia 4% CAF's Shareholders B rasil 3% A rgentina 4% Venezuela 1% M éxico 1% China 11% Italy 7% United Kingdo m 9% CABEI's Shareholders M embers eligible fo r lo ans 57% M éxico 9% Canada 9% FLAR’S SHAREHOLDERS ARE ITS OWN MEMBERS M embers eligible fo r lo ans 72% M embers eligible fo r Lo ans 96% CAF: Loans by sectors Productive Sectors Infrastructure Social sectors Fianancial intermediation and others 80 1.872 70 % of total approved for "execution" 1.667 60 50 5.383 1.290 40 985 4.209 30 536 362 20 353 10 311 195 922 122 172 528 0 1991-2000 2001 2002 Amounts approved for execution were 50% of total in1991-2000 and 80% in 2001-2003 2003 CABEI: Loans by sectors 60 Productive sectors Infrastructure Social Sectors Others 50 % of total approved 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 CDB: Loans by sectors 60 Productive sectors Infrastructure 50 Social Sectors As a % of total approved Natural Disasters and others 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 IDB: Loans by sectors 80 Productive sectors Infrastructure Social Sectors Economic Reforms and others 4.719 70 60 2.626 As a % of total 50 23.819 40 2.978 19.488 2.430 30 1.750 11.373 1.408 674 20 673 7.751 695 579 456 10 226 0 1991-2000 2001 2002 2003 World Bank: Loans by sectors 60 Productive sectors Infrastructure Social Sectors Economic Reforms and others 2.805 50 2.034 2.746 10.474 As a % of total 40 1.703 1.271 30 6.763 925 20 3.512 3.1823. 370 10 423 242 136 243 0 1991-2000 2001 2002 2003 2.538 Objectives Subregional development banks to foster economic development by – Financing productive and social investment – Medium and long term financial needs CAF: Long and short term loans 100% 204 365 90% 817 910 794 80% 70% 60% 719 976 1,242 383 745 656 884 1,370 50% 2,696 1,958 40% 30% 20% 10% 323 531 1,366 1,441 1994 1995 1,595 1,762 2,815 2,545 2,420 2002 2003 1,524 727 0% 1991 1992 1993 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Not a: Las aprobaciones de la CAF represent an un 81%del t ot al aprobado por la banca de desarrollo subregional en el perí odo 1994-2003 Largo y mediano plazo ( y ot ras modalidades) Cort o plazo Objectives Subregional development banks to foster economic development by – Financing productive and social investment – Medium and long term financial needs – Improve countrie’s access to financial markets. – Financial smoothing (Countercyclical financing) CAN Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Perú Venezuela CARICOM Barbados Belice Guyana Jamaica Suriname Trinidad y Tobago Antigua y Barbuda Dominica Granada Montserrat Saint Kitts y Nevis Santa Lucía San V. y las Granadinas MCCA Risk rating ( Moody’s long term debt in foreign currency Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua B3 Ba2 Caa1 Ba3 Caa1 CAF 30% basilea (2002) FLAR A Aa2 CDB 47% basilea Aaa CABEI 43% basilea Baa1 Ba3 B1 B1 Ba1 Baa3 Ba2 B2 Caa1 Andean Community Loans approved by CAF and GDP growth Crecimiento del PIB de los países de la CAN Préstamos de la CAF 10 3,500 Tasa de crecimiento del PIB 3,000 6 2,500 4 2 2,000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1,500 -2 -4 1,000 Préstamos de la CAF en millones USD 8 Central American Common Market Loans approved by CABEI and GDP growth Crecimiento del PIB de los países del MCCA Préstamos BCIE 6 1,000 Tasa de crecimiento del PIB 5 800 700 4 600 3 500 400 2 300 200 1 100 0 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Préstamos del BCIE en millones USD 900 CARICOM: Loans approved by CDB and GDP growth Crecimiento del PIB de los países del CARICOM 5 300 Préstamos del BDC 250 4 3.5 200 3 2.5 150 2 100 1.5 1 50 0.5 0 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Préstamos del BDC en millones USD Tasa de crecimiento del PIB 4.5 Objectives Subregional development banks to foster economic development by – Financing productive and social investment – Medium and long term financial needs – Improve countrie’s access to financial markets. – Financial smoothing (Countercyclical financing) FLAR short term financing for crisis prevention or management – Balance of payment – Central Bank liquidity FLAR: Short term financing Credit to support balance of payments: – Maximum of 4 years, conditionality to macroeconomic performance Credit to public debt restructuring – Co- financing with other multilateral, maximum of 4 years Credit for liquidity purposes: – Up to a year Contingency financing – Up to 6 month non renewable, to finance transitory BOP problems due to external shocks. Andean Community: Loans by FLAR and GDP growth 10 1100 8 900 Crecmiento CAN 700 6 Prestamos Flar 500 4 300 2 100 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 -100 -2 -300 -4 -500 FLAR: Loans by sectors 100 90 80 Export credit loans to Central Banks Balance of payments Debt restructuring Contingency and liquidity 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1978-1990 1991-1999 2000 2001 2002 The need for regional and sub regional financial institutions for investment financing Strengthen and develop instruments for better financial intermediation and risk management – – – – – – Debt instruments for long term Guarantee funds Securitization Venture capital Instruments to guarantee bond issues Small medium enterprises Complement with domestic development banks For short term financing and crisis prevention and management Regional contagion needs regional institutions to change investors perception Increase resources – Increased countrie’s contributions to the fund – Industrialized country's contribution – Contingency credits with Central Banks or commercial banks – Borrow in international markets Regional fund for liquidity crises: – Covariance are not that large and crisis expected to diminish with the fund – pooling reserves Sub regional financial institutions can also contribute to Balance globalization – Complementarities with global institutions » Policy coordination » Adaptation of codes and standards » Surveillance Specialization and ownership » Voice matters » Specifities are better recognized SUB REGIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN DANIEL TITELMAN ANDRAS UTHOFF ECLAC PRESENTED AN THE SEMINAR ON REGIONAL FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS DESA/ECLAC NEW YORK 14-15 JULY 2004