The Challenges of Unsustainable
Growth
http://gapminder.org/
José L. Fernández-Solís
Modules 04 & 05
Green Infrastructure and Sustainable Communities
XX-1
On Technology / Sobre la tecnología
“The essence of modern technology starts
human beings upon the way of THAT
revealing through which reality
everywhere, more or less distinctly,
becomes resource”
Heidegger (1954)
“toda realidad se converte en recurso”
A new Paradigm: Numbers and Time /
un nuevo paradigma: números y tiempo
Very Large
Numbers
Billions
Millions
Thousands
Years
Decades
Centuries
Long Tern
Horizon
Forces Behind Construction /
las fuerzas detrás de la construcción
POPULATION
20.0
AFFLUENCE
?
10.0
5.0 tc= 35 approx
6.5 B / 2005
2.5
year
Population Dynamics
Theoretical scenario of population
demographics moving from needs to wants
Exponentials
http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/presentations/
Growth in Income, Population and Technology /
crecimiento en entradas, poblacion y technologia
Growth in incomes was accompanied by unprecedented increases in population and
exponential increases in the rate of scientifi c discoveries.
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
PCs
4,000
4,000
discovery of DNA
penicillin
populations (millions)
Population (Millions)
nuclear energy
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
invention of
automobile
invention of
telephone
electrification
germ theory
beginning of
railroads
invention of
Watt engine
beginning of
industrial revolution
beginning of 2nd
agricultural revolution
1,000
0
time (years)
So u r ce: Fogel, Robert. 1999. “Catching Up with the Economy.” Am erican Eco n o m ic Review 89(1)
(March): 1–21.
No t e: There is usually a lag between the invention of a process or a machine and its general
application to production. “Beginning” means the earliest stage of this diffusion process.
Sustainability
and
Exponential
Growth /
Sostenibilidad y
el crecimiento
exponencial
Exponentialoid Unsustainable Growth
to be restrained by Artificial
sustainability forces
Natural Sustainability -Negated
by human intervention
Natural Sustainability –
restrained growth
1000
800
600
400
300
200
Figura 1. China Construction Floor Space
Thompson Datastream FT 5/31/08
2010
2007
2005
2000
100
1996
Millions of square meters per year
China Construction Activity Growth / actividad
de la construcción en la China
tc = doubling times /
tiempo para duplicar
• Exponential growth:
– Population
– Affluence
(tc = 35 yrs)
(tc = 10 – 15 yrs)
• Air passengers (Boeing, 07)
triple by 2030
• Container shipment (International, 06) double in 10 yrs.
– Construction in general (as of 2006)
• Global trends
(tc = 15 yrs)
• USA trends
(tc = 25 yrs)
– Resource consumption
(tc = 7 yrs)
– Total Emissions generation
(tc = 1 yrs)
Per Capita Consumption (2003)
/ consumo de electricidad por capita
(Approx. population) / kilowatt hour
• USA (300M) 14,057.0 kWh (1.0)
• France
7,585.5 kWh (0.5)
• Germany
6,900.0 kWh (0.4)
• China (1,600M)
1,378.5 kWh (0.1)
• Bangladesh
594.0 kWh (0.05)
http://www.gapminder.org/
Human development trends/carbon Dioxide/Population/Size carbon dioxide/select
Affluence: Evolution of Global GDP and
Per Capita GDP
GDP per capita
($,000)
GDP levels ($,000
Billions)
1990 international PPP dollars
A.D.
1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1900 1950 2000 per capita GDP
Source: Data from: Maddison, Angus. 2001. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD.
1200
1000
Bmt
800
depletion
600
reserve
400
200
2069
2064
2059
2054
2049
2044
2039
2034
2029
2024
2019
2014
2009
2004
0
Year
Copper
Copper Consumption and Depletion
3.0000
2.5000
Bmt
2.0000
depletion
1.5000
reserve
1.0000
0.5000
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
0.0000
Year
Aluminum Consumption and Depletion
Aluminum
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
consumption
recovery
depletion
Year
Theoretical consumption and
depletion of resources
2068
2064
2060
2056
2052
2048
2044
2040
2036
2032
2028
2024
2020
2016
2012
2008
reserve
2004
Bmt
Resource Consumption / el
consumo de recursos
Consumtion and Depletion of Crude Iron Ore
Crude Iron Ore
Re-cap / re-capitulación
• The forces behind construction are
related to exponential growth in:
– Population
– Affluence
• Construction exponential growth are
related to exponential growth in:
– Resource consumption
– Emissions generation
Emissions Data /
data de emisiones
• China, added electrical power capacity
– 2004 of England (one coal plant/2 weeks)
– 2005 of Spain (one coal plant/1.5 weeks)
– 2006 of France (one coal plant/ week)
– 2007 of Germany ( 1.5 coal plants / week)
– Now China is exporting quick coal plant
construction to India
Emissions Data /
data de emisiones
• To eliminate global emissions from
current and future power generation
needs alone, we need
– Approximately, one nuclear power plant every
week from now until the end of 2070 (FT).
– IEA (International Energy Agency 6/6/08:
• 32 nuclear power plants yearly
• 17,500 wind turbines yearly
• Outfit 35 coal fired power stations with carbon
capture and storage equipment yearly
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Pacala and Socolow 2007, Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies
Wedges (1 billion tons of carbon each) Min. 12
Fossil Fuel Emissions Generation
1
2
3
/ Emisión de Gases
4
Emissions Generation
/ concentraciónes atmosférica
420
400
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Land
Figure TS.20. (Top) Records of Northern
Hemisphere temperature variation
during the last 1300 years with 12
reconstructions using multiple climate
proxy records shown in colour and
instrumental records shown in black.
(Middle and Bottom) Locations of
temperature-sensitive proxy records
with data back to AD 1000 and AD
1500 (tree rings: brown triangles;
boreholes: black circles; ice core/ice
boreholes: blue stars; other records
including low-resolution records: purple
squares). Data sources are given in
Table 6.1, Figure 6.10 and are discussed
in Chapter 6. {Figures 6.10 and 6.11}
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report WGI
wg1.ucar.edu/
http://ipcc-
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Potential Precipitation
Figure TS.8
Rainfall is increasing
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Precipitation
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#269,14,Figure 3.13
Texas has areas that had largest decrease in continental US
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Precipitation
Rainfall became more concentrated and Texas again has such areas
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#296,40,Figure 3.39
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Drought
Palmer drought index
change 1900-2002, Regional map
and graph of global average
Texas shows lesser index
Did not graph last 20 years
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#300,44,FAQ 3.2, Figure 1
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Hurricanes
Figure TS.11. Tropical Atlantic (10°N–20°N) sea surface temperature annual
anomalies (°C) in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation, relative to the
1961 to 1990 mean.
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Other
Available observational evidence indicates that regional changes in climate, particularly
increases in temperature, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological
systems in many parts of the world.
Observed changes include
Shrinkage of glaciers and sea ice
Snow cover has decreased
Thawing of permafrost,
Later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on lakes/rivers
Lengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasons
Poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges,
Declines of some plant and animal populations,
Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects, and egg-laying in birds
Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased
Degree of climate change - why is this happening
IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
human influence on global climate.”
IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely
(>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”
IPCC (2007) ”Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%)
due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human
emission caused) greenhouse gas concentrations.”
Degree of climate change - why is this happening
Some gases, like carbon dioxide (CO), trap heat in the atmosphere by absorbing longwave radiation
while letting the Sun's energy pass through. The transparent roof and walls of a greenhouse allow in
the sunlight while keeping in the heat. Since these gases act similarly in the atmosphere, we call them
greenhouse gases.
Source : U.S. National Assessment/
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/images/Greenhouse-s.jpg.
Degree of climate change / cambio de clima
Pre industrial
1985
2007
- 275
- 345
- 380+
Counting Non CO2
this is increase almost doubles
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Temperature since 1979
Rates of change
accelerating as time
progresses (colored
lines)
Texas in a relatively
rapidly warming area
within continental US
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#299,43,FAQ 3.1, Figure 1
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now – Ocean Temp.
Figure TS.16
Ocean also shows temperature increase
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
Temperature, Atmospheric CO2 and Peak Year Estimate
/ temperatura, CO2 atmosférica y estimado de año máximo
Mean stabilized temp.
increase above pre
industrial level, ºC /
Temperatura en
Centígrados
2.0 to 2.8
2.8 to 3.2
3.2 to 4.0
4.0 to 6.1
Atmospheric CO2
equivalent
concentrations (ppm)
445 to 535
535 to 590
590 to 710
710 to 1130
2020 to 2060
2080 to 2090
Latest year in which CO2
2015 to 2020 2010 to 2030
emissions must peak /
Año
Annual Greenhouse Gas Emission by
Sector
CO2 and Temperature Stabilization
Degree of climate change
What is happening up to now -- Other
Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/
Why is this happening / ¿Porque esta pasando?
CO2 and temperature linked but does not lead
http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm
Degree of climate change - What is projected
• Less water
Texas in relatively severely affected area
Data / Indicadores de ¿ porque esta pasando?
Degree of climate change - What is projected
• Very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more frequent and longer
lasting
• Precipitation generally increases but with general decreases in the
subtropics
• Precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer
periods between rainfall events.
• Tendency for drying of mid-continent during summer, indicating a greater
risk of droughts in those regions.
• Sea level projected to rise 1999 and 2099 by 0.18 to 0.59 m.
• Likely increase in hurricane peak wind intensities - an increase in the
numbers of the most intense.
• Fewer mid-latitude storms- poleward shift of storm tracks
• Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) – Gulf Stream will
slow down
Building demand:
1 DU/6 persons
1 Other/6 persons
and Depletion of Crude Iron Ore
CrudeConsumtion
Iron Ore
1200
1000
Bmt
800
depletion
600
reserve
From:
From
Fig. 4.3
3.7
Fig.
& 3.8
& 4.4
400
POPULATION
AFFLUENCE
200
CO2 Ratios:
Buildings 40%
Others 60%
2069
2064
2059
2054
2049
2044
2039
2034
2029
2024
2019
2014
2009
2004
0
Year
Copper Consumption and Depletion
Copper
3.0000
2.5000
Bmt
2.0000
depletion
1.5000
reserve
1.0000
28,000
Demand
Loop /
Circulo de
demanda
0.5000
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
0.0000
Year
20,000
t c = 1 year
actual
consumption
recovery
depletion
2068
2064
2060
2056
2052
2048
2044
2040
2036
2032
2028
2024
2020
2016
2012
2008
reserve
2004
Bmt
Aluminum Consumption and Depletion
Aluminum
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Year
Theoretical consumption and depletion of resources
Theoretical Resource Consumption/Depletion
10,000
Environment
Additional Building
demand:
1 DU/6 persons
1 Other/6 persons
Legend
Interacts with
Influence
Partially Determine
Results
Climate
Change
Catastrophes 2004:
395 disasters
244,500 deaths
157 M affected
Etc.
t c = 30 years
estimated
2005
Global Carbon Emissions from
Fossil Fuel Burning 1750 - 2005
Fig. 4.5
3.9 World-view:
Worldview: Building
Demand
and Emissions,
Fig.
Building
Demand
and
Resource Consumption, Climate Change
Emissions, Resource Consumption, Climate
Change
EoI exponential growth
Elements that
influence
exponential
growth
Global
Estimates
Global Population
Population Estimates
20%
Ratios
80%
80%
Ratios
20%
5
10
%
Migration
5 - 10 % Migration
Needs
Wants
Needs
Wants
20%
Consumption
80%
20%
Consumption
80%
Nt + x
S = 1/Nt er (t+x)
Nt
Item N
N = No er t
No
Time
t
t+x
Fig. 8. Sustainability as the inverse of an exponentialoid curve


First time technology
Other than first time technology
Resource Consumption and
Emissions Generation
Legend
Interacts with
Influence
Partially Determine
Results
Fig. 3.10 Elements of Industrial change and
exponentialoid growth
What is projected / Projecciones
Climate models predict increasing emissions will cause a temp increase
Source : IPCC AR4t
Taming the Exponentialoid
/ domando la exponencial
C
A
Nt + x
S = 1/Nt er (t+x)
Nt
B
Item N
N = No er t
No
Time
t
t+x
Fig. 8. Sustainability as the inverse of an exponentialoid curve
A New Design Paradigm
What happens when we do something in
extremely large number?
Quantity = Magnitude
Extremely large numbers
i.e. billions ≈ ∞
What happens when we do something for
an indefinite period of time?
Long term horizon i.e.
hundreds of years ≈ ∞
Time Line = Direction
Can we increase numbers indefinitely and for an indefinite time?
Framework of Assumptions and Facts shared
between the Artificial and Natural Worlds
Fact
Assumption
Energy
Natural World
Assumption
Capital
Artificial World
Need: A common currency
Yesterday: Independent
resources
waste
INDEPENDENT
Today: Grid
resources
waste
GRID DEPENDENT
Future: Hybrid
Rebates
Photo-voltaic
Subsidies
Hydrogen power generation
Carbon Trading Schemes
Bio-gas
Day
Night
waste &
resources
waste &
resources
HYBRID
From Independent to Grid to Hybrid
Option 1
Option 2
Option 2 small numbers
/ very large scale
Small
Numbers
waste &
resources
waste &
resources
Option 1 small scale /
very large numbers
Very Large
Numbers
Small Scale
Very Large Scales
HYBRID
The Car Paradigm
New Paradigm?
Situation / el principio precaucionario
“Situations in life often permit no delay; and
when we cannot determine the method which
is certainly best, we must follow the one
which is probably the best… if the method
selected is not indeed a good one, at last the
reasons for selecting it are excellent.”
Rene Descartes quoted by Koen, 2003,
“Discussion of THE method,” all-is-heuristics
Q&A/
conclusiones, preguntas y respuestas
Our current form of economic development is
not sustainable
This situation will likely reach crisis proportions
in 10-20 years
Issues of sustainability are changing the way
business and government operate
What needs to change to tame exponential
growth?