ILF: Interim Progress Report
Jess Kaizar, Hong Tran, Tariq Islam
Agenda
• Problem Statement
• Technical Approach
• WBS Status
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–
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Background Research
Metrics
Scenarios
Technologies
• EVM Chart
2
Problem Statement
This project will serve to provide a background study on past wars in
terms of their fuel usage, and compare them to the metrics of modern
day warfare. What is needed, and what will be answered here
subsequently is that given various future warfare scenarios, how will
helicopters be leveraged and used in those scenarios? The largest
issue being fuel efficiency, the efficiency of helicopters from a tactical
perspective as well as a design perspective will need to be applied to
each of the future scenarios to provide feasibility guidance in the next
10 to 20 years of helicopter production by vendors, specifically
Sikorsky.
Approach and Methodology
1. Survey the use of energy in warfare throughout history and develop
energy consumption metrics
2. Identify a range of representative scenarios
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Primary missions
Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force
3. Identify technologies for inspection and characterization
4. Conduct cost estimation of fuel prices in 2021 and 2031
5. Model Scenarios
6. Analysis
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Vary fuel price
Apply technologies
Conduct excursions for potential changes in future warfare
7. Provide insight and recommendation for the impact of fuel
efficiencies and rotary aircraft
WBS Status
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Optimization of Liquid Fuel Decisions
1.0 Project Management
1.1 Project Structure
1.1.1 WBS/Task Creation
1.1.2 Project Schedule Derivation
1.1.3 Team Meetings
1.1.3.1 Peer Review of Deliverables
1.1.3.2 Dry Run of Interim Progress/Final Presentation
1.1.4 Sponsor Meetings
1.1.5 Website Design
1.2 Proposal Deliverable
1.2.1 Project Definition
1.2.2 Project Proposal
1.3 Delivery of Final Product
1.3.1 Completion of Final Report
1.3.2 Completion of Final Presentation
2.0 Project Design
2.1 Background Research and Metrics
2.1.1 Scoping fuel consumption
2.1.2 MoE/MoP Metrics
2.2 Identify Representative Scenarios
2.2.1 Scope missions
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
5
9
2
1
1
15
5
1
3
2
3
1
2
1
3
2
3
1
2
1
3
2
3
1
2
1
3
2
3
1
2
1
3
2
2
2
3
1
1
3
3
1
3
1
5
5
9
9
18
18
15
5
15
3
2.2.2 Map missions to forces (Army, Navy, Air Force)
2.2.3 Choose representative set
2.3 Identify Technologies for Inspection
2.3.1 Scope viable fuel technologies
2.3.2 Eliminate unsuitable solutions
2.3.2 Characterize technologies for modeling
2.4 Develop Fuel Cost Estimation
2.4.1 Project future cost of fuel
2.4.2 Bound the cost with a confidence interval
2.5 Model Development
2.5.1 Model fuel consumption in scenarios
10
2
10
10
10
2
3
5
5
2
10
3
10
3
10
9
3
3
5
3
5
2.5.2 Create user interface for variables and sensitivity analysis
2.5.3 Create output for MoE
3.0 Analysis
3.1 Baseline
3.1.1 Run baseline analysis
3.1.1.1 2021 Fuel cost estimation
3.1.1.2 2031 Fuel cost estimation
3.1.2 Verify model and output
3.2 Application of Technologies
3.1.1 2021 with projected fuel efficiency
3.1.2 2031 with projected fuel efficiency
3.3 Sensitivity Analysis
3.3.1 Run parametric sensitivity with fuel efficiency
3.4 Analyze Potential Cost Savings
5
5
5
10
10
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
3
3
3
2
5
2
5
10
3
3.4.1 Determine require fuel efficiency to pace inflation
3.4.2 Evaluate potential techinical and operation impacts
3.5 Insights
3.5.1 Cyber warfare ramifications
3.5.2 Role of rotary aircraft
Totals
20
22
38
37
32
34
34
31
33
35
5
9
1
3
7
1
3
7
33
34
41
43
Planned
Total
467
Background Research
• 175% Increase in Gallon of Fuel Consumed
per Soldier per Day since Vietnam War
• Fuel Consumption of 22 Gallons/Soldier/Day in
Iraq/Afghanistan War w/ a Projected Burn Rate
of 1.5%/Year through 2017
Background Research
• Defense Energy Support Center (US Military's Primary Fuel Broker)
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has contracts with the International Oil Trading Company; Kuwait
Petroleum Corporation and Turkish Petrol Ofisi, Golteks and
Tefirom. Contracts with these companies range from $1.99 a gallon
to $5.30 a gallon.
DESC sets fuel rates paid by military units.
$3.51 a gallon for diesel
$3.15 for gasoline
$3.04 for jet fuel
Avgas -- a high-octane fuel used mostly in unmanned aerial
vehicles -- is sold for $13.61 a gallon
Fuel Protection (from Ground & Air)
Accidents/Pilferage/Weather
IEDs
Inventory/Storage Due to Many Types of Fuel
Final Delivery Cost of $45 -$400/gallon to Remote Afghanistan
(lack of infrastructure, challenging geography, increased roadside
attacks)
Background Research
• 2001 DSB Report Recommends the Inclusion of
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fuel efficiency in requirements and acquisition
processes.
Target fuel efficiency improvements through
investments in Science and
Technology and systems design
The Principal Deputy Under Secretary of
Defense signed a memo stating “…include fuel
efficiency as a Key Performance Parameter (KPP)
in all Operational Requirements Documents and
Capstone Requirements Documents.”
Background Research
Metrics
Metrics capture how fuel is expended and any benefits of increased
fuel efficiency
• Time to complete mission
– Reduced mission time by removing the need to refuel eliminating delays
– Lighter aircraft may move faster
• Lift capacity
– Carrying less fuel or building a lighter aircraft may allow additional lift
capacity (up to the structural limitations of the aircraft)
• Time on station (TOS)
– Move efficient fuel/aircraft may extend legs or increase TOS
• Cost
– Less fuel burned = lower cost
– Alternate fuel = lower price?
– All metrics will be translated into cost as well
• $/mile
• $/lb lift
• $/flight hour
Identify Representative Scenarios
FORCE
US Army
US Navy
US Marine Corps
US Air Force
UH-60
Airborne
Assault
MH-60
ASW
HH-60
CSAR
(Anti-Submarine
Warfare)
CH-53E
Heavy Lift
Shore
Assault
CAS
ASuW
(Close-in Air
Support)
(Anti-Surface
Warfare)
HELO
MISSION
POTENTIAL
EXCURSION
(Combat Search
and Rescue)
HADR
(Humanitarian Aid
and Disaster
Relief)
N/A
Identify Technologies for Inspection
Alternate Energy Sources
1. Electricity
2. Hydrogen Fuel Cells
3. Biofuels
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Convert fuel consumption cost into energy (Joules) cost, create a common metric
Map alternate energy outputs back to liquid fuel efficiencies gained
This will provide parameters for the executable model
– What if we hit a scenario where hydrogen fuel cells give an increased energy
output?
Rotary Craft Design -- Trending technologies, progress,
feasibility
1. Air-hybrid engine
2. Diesel-Electric Propulsion system
To-Date EVM Chart
References
• http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=aer
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ospacedaily&id=news/FUEL111109.xml&headline=Report%20Says%20
DOD%20Fuel%20Use%20A%20Security%20Concern
http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA477619.pdf
http://www.envirosagainstwar.org/know/read.php?itemid=593
http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA233674
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2008-04-022602932101_x.htm
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/63407-400gallon-gasanother-cost-of-war-in-afghanistanhttp://www.trackpads.com/forum/point-counterpoint-politics/154121helicopter-units-revert-vietnam-era-tactics.html
http://www.ndia-mich.org/workshop/Papers/NonPrimary%20Power/Roche%20%20Fuel%20Consumption%20Modeling%20And%20Simulation%20(M&
S)%20to%20Support%20Military%20Systems%20Acquisition%20and%
20Planning.pdf