Inflation Report
February 2009
Output and supply
Chart 3.1 Contributions to quarterly GDP growth(a)
(a) Chained-volume measures, at basic prices. The figures in parentheses show shares in the level of nominal value added in 2007. Contributions do not sum to GDP due to rounding.
The chart shows data consistent with January’s preliminary GDP release. Production data were subsequently revised.
(b) Includes agriculture, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply and construction.
Chart 3.2 Survey indicators of aggregate output growth(a)
Sources: BCC, CBI, CBI/PwC, CIPS/Markit and ONS.
(a) Three measures are produced by weighting together surveys from the BCC (manufacturing, services), the CBI (manufacturing, financial services, business/consumer services,
distributive trades) and CIPS/Markit (manufacturing, services, construction) using nominal shares in value added.
(b) The diamond for 2009 Q1 is based on January data.
Chart 3.3 Manufacturing output indicators in selected countries(a)
Sources: Bloomberg, CIPS/Markit, Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Datastream.
(a) Data are headline purchasing manager indices. A figure over 50 indicates rising output compared with the previous month, and a figure below 50 indicates falling output.
Chart 3.4 UK manufacturing output(a)
(a) Chained-volume measures, at basic prices.
(b) Manufacture of motor vehicles, motor vehicle bodies, trailers and parts, and engine parts.
Chart 3.5 Labour productivity and capacity utilisation
Sources: CBI and ONS.
(a) GDP at constant market prices divided by LFS employment. The diamond for 2008 Q4 is based on the preliminary estimate for GDP growth and employment data in the three
months to November.
(b) Balances from the CBI manufacturing, financial services, business/consumer services and distributive trades surveys, weighted together using nominal shares in value added.
Chart 3.6 Capital sales relative to acquisitions(a)
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
At current prices. The ratio for each sector is an average over 2000–07.
Mining and quarrying, and electricity, gas and water supply.
Distribution, hotels and catering.
Education, health and social work.
Agriculture, forestry and fishing, and other community, social and personal service activities.
Chart 3.7 Contributions to quarterly LFS employment growth(a)
Source: ONS (including Labour Force Survey).
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
Figures in parentheses are shares in total employment in 2007 and do not sum to 100% due to rounding.
Data have been adjusted to be on a calendar-quarter basis.
Unpaid family workers and government-supported trainees.
The diamond shows employment growth in the three months to November.
Chart 3.8 LFS unemployment
Source: Labour Force Survey.
Chart 3.9 Redundancies(a)
Sources: ONS (including Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations.
(a) Data prior to 1995 are based on ONS historical estimates of redundancies, and have been adjusted by Bank staff to account for a change in definition compared with the post-1995 figures.
Chart 3.10 Surveys of employment intentions
Sources: BCC, Manpower and ONS.
(a) Manpower whole-economy measure. Data prior to 1992 have been seasonally adjusted by Bank staff.
(b) Net percentage balance of companies expecting their workforce to increase over the next three months. The measure weights together the manufacturing and service sector balances
using shares in total employment. Data are non seasonally adjusted.
Chart 3.11 Contributions to annual growth in economic inactivity(a)
Source: Labour Force Survey.
(a) Data prior to 1992 are based on LFS microdata. Figures for 1992 are interpolated. Figures for 2008 are based on data up to 2008 Q3.
(b) Discouraged, retired, temporarily sick and other reason.
Chart 3.12 Indicators of labour market tightness
Sources: KPMG/REC and ONS (including Labour Force Survey).
(a) Number of vacancies divided by LFS unemployment. Vacancies exclude agriculture, forestry and fishing.
(b) The KPMG/REC demand for staff index divided by the KPMG/REC availability of staff index.