Final Exam MGG 493
Lili Chen
I
did not receive assistance with
this exam. I neither collaborated with nor
did I did use material developed by other
persons or groups to answer the questions
in this exam.
Part I
Assumption: All orders units are in packages
Answer:
Order Summary
Types
A
B
C
Tape
Hearing Aids
Barkama
11780
5781
21330
38913
70
Lamin
6000
4990
19000
29935
19
Soma
5375
3584
12959
22000
20
Total
23155
14355
53289
90848
109
Cost Summary
Types
Barkama
Lamin
A
$35,340 $18,000
B
$28,905 $24,950
C
$127,980 $114,000
Tape
$97,283 $74,838
Hearing Aids
$350
$95
Soma
Total
$16,125
$69,465
$17,920
$71,775
$77,754 $319,734
$55,000 $227,120
$100
$545
Total Cost $688,639
Part II 2.1Markham Nemus
a)
Payment
Bad Debt
1-30 days
69%
0
31-60 days
20%
0
61-90 days
6%
0.15
Amount
Payment
Bad Debt
1-30 days
1000000
$687,500.00
0
31-60 days
455000
$91,546.11
0
61-90 days
115000
$6,557.82
$983.67
Total Payment
$785,603.93
Exclude BD
$784,620.26
b)
C)
d)
Weekly Payment
800000
Total Average Payment
Total Average Bad Debt
$756,579.81
$7,846.08
The estimation for 31-60 days and 61-90 days are reasonable. Based on the
proportion of payment, if there is 1000000 in 1-30 days, 45% will be paid off, and
there will be estimated 550000 in 31-60 days but some of them will passing
through 61-90 days or payoff. Since there is no further information, I will trust
Doug Stoll's estimation unless we get more detail.
e)
Amount
Payment
Bad Debt
1-30 days
1000000
833684.211
0
31-60 days
455000
48865.9912
0
61-90 days
115000
3934.69169
590.203754
Total Payment
Exclude BD
886484.893
885894.69
It would be worthwhile to offer 1% reduction because total payment increase by 100881, and
bad debt decrease by 393.67.
2.2Pillbox power Product
a)
Month
Regular
Overtime
Purchase
Product Available
Demand
Excess
April
8500
0
500
9550
7000
2550
b)
Overall Cost
$1,840,725.00
c)
With Contract Cost
W/o Contract Cost
Fee to get out arrangement
$1,840,725.00
$1,811,800.00
$28,925.00
d) 25% demand reduction
Overall Cost
$1,380,525.00
e) 25% demand increase
Overall Cost
$2,450,912.50
May
9000
0
500
12050
9000
3050
June
8400
0
500
11950
11000
950
July
8800
750
500
11000
10500
500
Part III
3.5 To Drill or Not to Drill
a.b)
EV
Drill
$
43,000
Lease
$
15,000
Decision
Drill
Perfect information
$
66,000
Info. Worth
$
23,000
d,e)
Drill
Lease
Test
Decision
Test Worth
EV
$43,000
$15,000
$46,600
Test
$ 3,600
c)
Not Drill
-6000
Plate
0.2
Not Drill
Drill
Dry
0.16
(106,000)
Gas
0.04
34,000.00
Dry
0.04
(106,000)
Gas
0.32
34,000.00
Oil and Gas
0.28
84,000.00
oil
0.1
194,000
Gas
0.04
34,000.00
Oil and Gas
0.02
84,000.00
(15,600.00)
Test Outcome
Not Drill
-6000
$ 46,600.00
Varied
0.64
Drill
Ridge
0.16
Drill
30,160.00
Not Drill
Drill
Drill
-6000
22,440.00
3.7 Case of the Dishonest Advertiser
Explanation: I am not able to get the answer, but depending on the information I have get. Best
candidate can be randomly interview in any sequence, and the data table I get prove that there
is 1/10 probability in each sequence. I believe that Mr. Z should wait to see 4 or 5 candidates to
decide who to compare a candidate and hire people after 4 or 5 interviews if he get a better
candidate although he might be also risk to hire the last one or the better candidates are in the
first 4 or 5.
I believe that in order to complete this problem, one way is time consuming but will
provide the answer is to run a trial and error to test the best probability. There are 10!
(3628800) combination of different interview sequence. To evaluation the probability, I should
find out the probability of success/failure in hiring the 1st, 2nd,3rd…10th candidates. The success
mean the we skip the x number of people, and see if the best candidate is in the rest of the
candidates or failure if we already interview the candidate. To find out who is the best
candidate, we can use the highest success probability of skip x people. Although there might
still be chance that we miss the best candidates, but because the interview order is random, it
is the best decision we can make by taking minimum risk to hire best candidates
Secretary
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ranked
#1
100
116
82
94
106
105
97
97
99
104
Probability
0.1
0.116
0.082
0.094
0.106
0.105
0.097
0.097
0.099
0.104
Secretary
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Probability
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Number of times
Random distribution of Secretary ranked #1
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Secretary
7
8
9
10