10 Conflicts to
watch
IN 2016
BY STEPHANIE BAKER
WHS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
While there are many other areas with temporary or
ongoing conflicts, this list has been chosen as the
most crucial to world security and economy.

1. Syria and Iraq

2. Turkey

3. Yemen

4. Libya

5. Lake Chad Basin

6. South Sudan

7. Burundi

8. Afghanistan

9. South China Sea

10.Columia
1. Syria/ Iraq: Fighting ISIS. US supports rebel
forces. Russia supports current President(despot)
Kurdish and Yazidi forces have driven ISIS out of Sinjar, among a string of border towns
that have been retaken along the border in the past year. ( Side) Airstrikes in the past
week have killed 25,000 ISIS fighters in Iraq & Syria and several top war adivors of ISIS
according to US officials- The New York Times, April 12,2016
ISIS attacks- red= ISIS forces; clear=
ISIS recruits in 2015.
A Complex Problem , ISIS attacks
will require long-range strategies…

Recent land and air operations in Syria and Iraq have incinerated
millions of dollars used to fund ISIS operations in the region. But the

Battelfield successes enjoyed by the western-backed forces in the ISIS
heartland have done little to stop the expansion of the militants to
Europe, North Africa, and Afghanistan. Scattered worldwide attacks
only reinforce the sense of a terrorist group on the march. Among
American advisons and military experts, there is renewed caution in
predicting progress in a fight they say is likely to go on for years.

The US and its European allies must now engage in a far more complex
struggle against homegrown militants who need few resources to sow
bloodshed in the West- “ We must work to prevent the spread of
violent extremism”, Deputy Sec of State Anthony Blinken told a
congressional committee on Tuesday(4-12). “ To stop the radical
mobilization of people – the recruitment, indoctrination, and religious
extremism appeals especially to frustrated young people- to engage
in terrorist activities.”
ISIS attacks in Europe and Asia in
2015
2. Turkey
3. Yemen- since March 2015…

http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/assets/yemenaqap/mastheads/AQtrain3.jpg?v=231609080416
Why does Saudi Arabia care about Yemen? In the North are other war-torn nations that
Saudis must be concerned about. Iran , they believe, has a goal of hegemony
(domination) of the region. Pic 1
In mountainous regions and desert areas, radical terrorist factions can train, hide, and plan
out their next attacks with little threat of discovery or intervention. Pic 2.
Houthis in Yemen (Iran) vs Operation Decisive Storm
( Saudi Arabia and the U.S. )
Houthi militias have control of capitol, Sanaa. Many believe the US has been secretly involved in this conflict for the past 2-3 years.
Saudi’s Operation Decisive Storm may be an alliance effort between US and the Saudis to protect the region and its oil interests.
If so, we are secretly ( or not so) placing ourselves in opposition to IRAN’s goals and military actions in the region. IRAN is not officially
supporting the Houthis but intelligence in the ME region reports that they are supplying arms, air power, military advisors, and funding.
Pic A: Armaments engaged in Yemen fighting: Operation Decisive Storm. Red
bases= Saudi Air Force. Blue= US Air Force. US has drones, hotfire missiles,planes,
and Warships standing firm in the Bay of Aden. Saudis are financing the Yemeni
rebels against the Houthi militias and have put some forces in the region for
support. Thoughts:Does this look like a coordinated effort to you? Why?
Pic B: Houthi rebels square off with local Yemeni protestors in Sanaa before the
takeover.
4.Libya: Why?
Oil & Gas/ISIS
5. Lake Chad Basin: Nigeria, Chad, &
Cameroon vs Boko Haram(Jihadi militants)

The extremist Islamist group
Boko Haram’s Goal: Regional genocide of Christians/sunnis and tribal relgions.
Boko Haram poses an
ongoing threat to
Control of water and resources.
populations in Nigeria,
Cameroon, Chad and
Niger, where it continues to
commit sporadic attacks
and mass atrocity crimes.
The terrorist extremist group
has been warring for power
since 2009. It has been
uprooted by military
coalitions from its main
territories of power but is
continuing to commit
atrocities such as rape,
kidnapping and suicide
bombings. It is attacking the
IDP camps and using its
hostages as the bombers.
Regional locator: Lake Chad Basin
Time release photos: Earth Observation Data U Right 1997 to lower left 2013. Lake Chad
BACKGROUND: Despite more than a year of
joint military operations against Boko Haram,
attacks by the group against civilians continue
in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger.

According to OCHA, over 2.7 million people are
currently displaced in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and
Niger due to Boko Haram An estimated 8.3 million are
in need of food assistance in Nigeria, where Boko
Haram has been most active. More than 30 attacks
have been carried out in Cameroon since the start of
2016.
Water, Religion, Genocide and
domination…

Attacks also continue in Chad where the government has declared a state of emergency.
Nigerian security forces have previously failed to provide sufficient protection from Boko
Haram and there have been extensive reports of soldiers deserting . The military has also been
accused of committing human rights abuses against civilians, including arbitrary arrests and
extrajudicial killings of suspected Boko Haram members.
Displacement and insecurity have increased unemployment and poverty. The return of displaced
populations is dangerous and severely limits humanitarian access. The governments of Nigeria, Cameroon,
Chad and Niger are struggling to uphold their Responsibility to Protect and need ongoing support from other
countries.

Captured Boko Haram leaders should be
held accountable for crimes against
humanity committed in areas under the
group's command and control. With
international support, the Nigerian
government needs to urgently undertake
security sector reform . They must ensure
that the army and police are trained to
protect civilians and prevent mass atrocities
while respecting human rights.

Also, they must conduct thorough
investigations into all abuses, including
alleged extrajudicial killings
6. South Sudan: Civil war since
12/15/2013.

UNICEF spokesman and the UN Human
Rights Watch chairman call for greater
international attention on S Sudan
where atrocities are being commited
by both sides, but predominantly by
the government. The country was
established in 2011 as part of a peace
agreement to the previous 13 year
tribal war. Since, its government has
shown favoritism to the Dingi, the
predominant tribe in the region
leading to the ouster and rebellion of
the V pres who is a member of the
second largest tribe,
UN IS CALLING THIS ONE OF THE MOST HORRENDOUS HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS IN THE WORLD TODAY.
Army affiliated militias made of youths largely, were told to do what they can and take what they can which has
included cattle, property and women/girls. Some were gang raped and beaten, some kept as camp “wives” who
worked and were shared, and others tortured in front of family members. Recently, jounalists who have reported these
actions have been targeted. Several have been imprisoned. Others have been killed or tortured and left to die. UN
Human Rights Council has called for a meeting in April to provide a special observation group to tour the region and
report their findings. Immediate action is being urged from within the UHRC itself.
What will it take before the UN declares this a
genocide?
7. Burundi (Africa) humanitarian
crisis-refugees.

In line with this trend, there have been reports of hundreds of
thousands of refugees fleeing Burundi, which risks overwhelming
the health and sanitation infrastructure in the neighboring countries
President risks country’s collapse if forces election to 3rd
term. Cld reignite hutu/tutsi conflict in region.
DICTATOR would signal to neighboring countries that
democracy not feasible in region. Could cause others.

The United States has furnished the country
with military aid and training, totalling more
than $100 million since 2007.

President Nkurunziza’s authoritarian posture
and harsh crackdown have caused the U.S.
to announce a probable suspension in current
military aid to Burundi unless the situation
improves.

After more than a decade of strife and
developmental stagnation, some had
expressedcautioned enthusiasm about
Burundi moving forward. However, in April,
defying the two-term limit prescribed by the
constitution, President Pierre Nkurunziza
announced his intention to run for a third term.
The Burundi Dilemma:
Students attempt to escape police
by crawling under fence at US
Embassy.
Protestors
against
election.
President N
continues his
election plans
w force
8. Afghanistan:
Afghan soldiers are deserting in increasing #s in recent months as Taliban has gained repeated assistance from across the Pakistan border.
At least 5 Provinces in the Helmand Province are currently under Taliban control. Afghan troops are holding Lashkar Gah, the capital but
can see the white flag of the Taliban only 3 miles away. This is a capital that hundreds of NATO troops died to recapture and have had a
presence there for the past 15 years. This strategic province must not fall! Local police told CNN that the army has made no recent
advances and one attempt to retake a city closeby was repelled by Taliban. The reason Taliban is concentrating the fight here is the soon
to be harvested multi miliion dollar opium crops here. 2015 was a bad year, but I attribute most of those (failings) to failures of leadership,"
Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the U.S. forces' deputy chief of staff for operations, told CNN. He said recently appointed Afghan army leaders
were "phenomenal" and that "they still have a very tough set of operations ahead of them, but I disagree completely that Lashkar Gah is
on the verge of falling.“ As Afghanistan moves into summer, and the warmer months known as the fighting season, existing challenges will
be made worse by extreme losses government forces endured nationwide in 2015. U.S. officials estimate that 5,500 Afghan security force
members died that year alone, far more than the 3,500 NATO lost in its entire decade long campaign.
Obama announced he’s changed his exit plan; sending 5500 troops to stay in
Afghanistan through 2017. Other nations are commiting troops as well to weaken
the Taliban and prevent its allying itself with ISIS which would be devastating to
world security.
The World Bank, The Rockefeller Foundation, and other world
institutions have partnered to fund local businesses in Afghanistan in
2016. Children outside Kabal in a tent IDP camp Jan 2016. Young men
attempting to flee Afghanistan rather than serve in the army or the
Taliban Marcj 2016. UN is continuing to urge Southern regions to
launch new business and get out of the opium trade. Pakistan
meddles.
9. South China
Sea: SE Asia

China claims sovereignty over all South China Sea
islands and their adjacent waters and has pledged not
to “militarize” the structures it has built. But U.S. officials
say it has recently deployed fighter jets and surface-toair missiles on another disputed island to the north.

There is also concern in Washington and Manila that
China, having almost completed seven artificial islands
in the disputed Spratlys archipelago, is planning to
build a military outpost at a disputed reef less than 200
nautical miles from Manila.

“In the South China Sea, China’s actions…are causing
anxiety and raising regional tensions,” Mr. Carter told
reporters. The U.S. deployment is designed “to tamp
down tensions here” and wouldn’t provoke a
showdown with Beijing, he said.

Last month, the Philippines said it would make five
military bases available to U.S. forces under the terms
of a new defense pact signed in 2014. Earlier in the
week, Mr. Carter visited India, which is also upgrading
its security ties with Washington.

Since the start of the U.S. “pivot” to Asia early in the
Obama administration, the Pentagon has moved to
beef up its presence in the region to counter China’s
rising military power, including with additional
personnel, ships and aircraft. U.S. officials have said
that by 2020, 60% of the Navy’s ships and aircraft will
be deployed to the Pacific, up from about half before
the rebalance.
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China, Taiwan,
Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines have competing territorial
and jurisdictional claims, particularly over rights to exploit the region's
possibly extensive reserves of oil and gas. Freedom of navigation in the
region is also a contentious issue, especially between the United States
and China over the right of U.S. military vessels to operate in China's twohundred-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These tensions are shaping—
and being shaped by—rising apprehensions about the growth of China's
military power and its regional intentions. China has embarked on a
substantial modernization of its maritime paramilitary forces as well as
naval capabilities to enforce its sovereignty and jurisdiction claims by
force if necessary. At the same time, it is developing capabilities that
would put U.S. forces in the region at risk in a conflict, thus potentially
denying access to the U.S. Navy in the western Pacific.
Given the growing importance of the U.S.-China relationship, and the
Asia-Pacific region more generally, to the global economy, the United
States has a major interest in preventing any one of the various disputes in
the South China Sea from escalating militarily.
Of the many conceivable contingencies involving an armed clash in the
South China Sea, three especially threaten U.S. interests and could
potentially prompt the United States to use force.

1. The most likely and dangerous contingency is a clash stemming from U.S. military operations within China's EEZ that provokes an armed
Chinese response. The United States holds that nothing in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) or state
practice negates the right of military forces of all nations to conduct military activities in EEZs without coastal state notice or consent.
China insists that reconnaissance activities undertaken without prior notification and without permission of the coastal state violate
Chinese domestic law and international law. China routinely intercepts U.S. reconnaissance flights conducted in its EEZ and periodically
does so in aggressive ways that increase the risk of an accident similar to the April 2001 collision of a U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance plane and
a Chinese F-8 fighter jet near Hainan Island. A comparable maritime incident could be triggered by Chinese vessels harassing a U.S.
Navy surveillance ship operating in its EEZ The large growth of Chinese submarines has also increased the danger of an incident, such as
when a Chinese submarine collided with a U.S. destroyer's towed sonar array in June 2009. Since neither U.S. reconnaissance aircraft nor
ocean surveillance vessels are armed, the United States might respond to dangerous behavior by Chinese planes or ships by dispatching
armed escorts. A miscalculation or misunderstanding could then result in a deadly exchange of fire, leading to further military escalation
and precipitating a major political crisis. Rising U.S.-China mistrust and intensifying bilateral strategic competition would likely make
managing such a crisis more difficult.

2. A second contingency involves conflict between China and the Philippines over natural gas deposits, especially in the disputed area
of Reed Bank, located eighty nautical miles from Palawan. Oil survey ships operating in Reed Bank under contract have increasingly
been harassed by Chinese vessels. Reportedly, the United Kingdom-based Forum Energy plans to start drilling for gas in Reed Bank this
year, which could provoke an aggressive Chinese response. Forum Energy is only one of fifteen exploration contracts that Manila intends
to offer over the next few years for offshore exploration near Palawan Island. Reed Bank is a red line for the Philippines, so this
contingency could quickly escalate to violence if China intervened to halt the drilling.


The United States could be drawn into a China-Philippines conflict because of its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. The
treaty states, "Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own
peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes."
American officials insist that Washington does not take sides in the territorial dispute in the South China Sea and refuse to comment on
how the United States might respond to Chinese aggression in contested waters. Nevertheless, an apparent gap exists between
American views of U.S. obligations and Manila's expectations. In mid-June 2011, a Filipino presidential spokesperson stated that in the
event of armed conflict with China, Manila expected the United States would come to its aid.
With improving political and military ties between Manila and Washington, including a pending agreement to expand U.S. access to Filipino ports and
airfields to refuel and service its warships and planes, the United States would have a great deal at stake in a China-Philippines contingency. Failure to
respond would not only set back U.S. relations with the Philippines but would also potentially undermine U.S. credibility in the region with its allies and
partners more broadly. A U.S. decision to dispatch naval ships to the area, however, would risk a U.S.-China naval confrontation.
Scenario 3: US/ China
Confrontation Possibility in SCS

3. Disputes between China and Vietnam over seismic surveys or drilling for oil and gas could also
trigger an armed clash for a third contingency. China has harassed PetroVietnam oil survey ships
in the past that were searching for oil and gas deposits in Vietnam's EEZ. In 2011, Hanoi accused
China of deliberately severing the cables of an oil and gas survey vessel in two separate
instances. Although the Vietnamese did not respond with force, they did not back down and
Hanoi pledged to continue its efforts to exploit new fields despite warnings from Beijing. Budding
U.S.-Vietnam relations could embolden Hanoi to be more confrontational with China on the South
China Sea issue.

The United States could be drawn into a conflict between China and Vietnam, though that is less
likely than a clash between China and the Philippines. In a scenario of Chinese provocation, the
United States might opt to dispatch naval vessels to the area to signal its interest in regional
peace and stability. Vietnam, and possibly other nations, could also request U.S. assistance in
such circumstances. Should the United States become involved, subsequent actions by China or
a miscalculation among the forces present could result in exchange of fire. In another possible
scenario, an attack by China on vessels or rigs operated by an American company exploring or
drilling for hydrocarbons could quickly involve the United States, especially if American lives were
endangered or lost. ExxonMobil has plans to conduct exploratory drilling off Vietnam, making this
an existential danger. In the short term, however, the likelihood of this third contingency occurring
is relatively low given the recent thaw in Sino-Vietnamese relations. In October 2011, China and
Vietnam signed an agreement outlining principles for resolving maritime issues. The effectiveness
of this agreement remains to be seen, but for now tensions appear to be defused.

Each year, $5.3 trillion of trade passes through the South China Sea;
U.S. trade accounts for $1.2 trillion of this total. Should a crisis occur,
the diversion of cargo ships to other routes would harm regional
economies as a result of an increase in insurance rates and longer
transits. Conflict of any scale in the South China Sea would hamper
the claimants from benefiting from the South China's Sea's proven
and potential riches.
10. Colombia: civil war

Forty Years of Conflict

Colombia has endured the
longest-running internal
conflict in the Western
Hemisphere. For over forty
years, a triangulated war
between guerrillas,
paramilitaries and
government forces has
resulted in a devastating loss
of life. In the last 20 years an
estimated 70,000 civilians
have been killed. [1] More
than 3 million have fled the
violence, making Colombia
home to the second largest
internally displaced
population in the world. [2]
The Colombian conflict began approximately in
1964 or 1966 and is an ongoing low-intensity
asymmetric war between
theColombian government, paramilitary groups,
crime syndicates and left-wing guerrillas such as
the Revolutionary Armed Forces
ofColombia (FARC), and the National Liberation
Army (ELN), It is the longest ongoing conflct in the
Western Hemisphere.
The international drug trade did not become a
significant phenomenon in Colombia until the
1970s with the increased demand for marijuana,
particularly in the United States. By the 1980s,
cocaine had become the most common
substance to be illegally grown, processed, and
trafficked.
Peru and Bolivia, who share Colombia’s Andean
climate and prime conditions for the cultivation of
coca, have also been key sources in the
production of the drug.
Child soldier problem
in S America Rebel
Grps

Since 1999, at least 5,694 children have been
separated from armed groups and
benefitted from the Colombian Family
Welfare Institute program. Since 1999, there
have been 193 convictions for child
recruitment, including under the Justice and
Peace Law of 2005.

n June, a new bill for the protection of victims
of sexual and gender-based violence in
conflict was approved.
What role does US and European drug
demand have in this conflict? How will this
demand continue to affect Columbia’s
future?
Some scholars count the number of civil wars which
occurred in 19th-century Colombia to be around 11 or 12.
Other war estimates reach as high as 28. These occurred
well before the rise of drug trafficking in the country.
Both of the dominant rebel groups, originating in the
1960s during the height of revolutionary armed
struggle throughout Latin America, also predate the
drug trafficking industry in Colombia. Thus, the drug
trade alone does not suffice to explain their entrance
into an armed struggle with the state.
But narco-trafficking cannot be ignored in any
attempt at lasting peace in Colombia.