Soybean
Situation &Outlook
Chuck Danehower
Extension Specialist – Farm Management
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
77.27
9.19
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
66.95
9.19
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
• U.S. & World Economic Health
– Slow Ag news days market follows Dow
9789
9.19
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
• U.S. & World Economic Health
– Slow Ag news days market follows Dow
• Index and Commodity Funds
What Affects the Soybean Market?
•
•
•
•
•
U.S. Dollar
Crude Oil
U.S. & World Economic Health
Index and Commodity Funds
Weather
– Argentina – worst drought in 50 years
What Affects the Soybean Market?
•
•
•
•
•
U.S. Dollar
Crude Oil
U.S. & World Economic Health
Index and Commodity Funds
Weather
– Argentina – worst drought in 50 years
– How did wet Spring affect acres & yields?
• Farmers have said it was the worse planting
season ever experienced.
What Affects the Soybean Market?
•
•
•
•
•
U.S. Dollar
Crude Oil
U.S. & World Economic Health
Index and Commodity Funds
Weather
– Argentina – worst drought in 50 years
– How did wet Spring affect acres & yields?
– Frost concerns have added support to prices
Percent Dropping Leaves
Sept. 27/5 Yr. Avg.
73%
85%
86%
90%
74%
80%
58%
69%
81%
84%
76%
84%
40%
56%
76%
63%
83%
41%
81%
77%
Freeze By
R5
R6
R7
R8
Yield Loss
65%
37%
11%
0%
Nationwide
63%
77%
Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield,
Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009
State
Acres(1,000)
2009
2008
5 yr. Avg.
AL
AR
GA
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
MI
MN
MS
MO
NE
NC
440
3,350
480
9,050
5,480
9,730
3,500
1,430
1,000
1,990
7,100
2,170
5,350
4,650
1,760
37.0
38.0
34.0
44.0
43.0
52.0
40.0
42.0
35.0
38.0
40.0
41.0
42.0
51.0
34.0
35.0
38.0
30.0
47.0
45.0
46.0
37.0
34.0
33.0
37.0
38.0
40.0
38.0
46.5
33.0
28.8
36.4
28.4
47.0
48.3
50.0
36.0
38.5
35.8
39.9
40.7
36.1
39.1
48.4
29.6
Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield,
Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009
State
Acres(1,000)
2009
2008
5 yr. Avg.
ND
OH
SC
SD
TN
TX
VA
WI
4,000
4,580
590
4,300
1,560
210
590
1,630
30.0
47.0
27.0
39.0
40.0
25.0
35.0
39.0
28.0
36.0
32.0
34.0
34.0
24.0
32.0
35.0
30.9
44.4
25.4
35.8
34.2
28.7
32.0
39.6
US
76,767
42.3
39.6
41.9
U.S.
Soybean Oil
09/10 P
08/09 E
07/08
Million pounds
Beg. Stocks
3,100
2,485
Production
19,180
18,915
Imports
75
100
Supply, Total
22,355
21,500
Domestic
16,500
16,200
For methy ester
2,100
1,850
Exports
3,250
2,200
Use, total
19,750
18,400
Ending Stocks
2,605
3,100
Average Price (c/lb) 32.00 – 36.00 32.25
3,085
20,580
65
23,730
16,200
3,245
2,911
21,246
2,485
52.03
33.24
U.S.
Soybean Meal
09/10 P
08/09 E
07/08
Thousand short tons
Beg. Stocks
300
Production
40,235
Imports
165
Supply, Total
40,700
Domestic
30,800
Exports
9,600
Use, total
40,400
Ending Stocks
300
Average Price ($/s.t.) 280
294
39,456
100
39,850
30,750
8,800
39,550
300
330
343
42,284
141
42,768
33,232
9,242
42,474
294
335.94
288.50
Soybeans
2008/09
---Supply/Demand --2009/10
Bearish
USDA
Expected
Bullish
Beginning Stocks(MB)
205
110
110
110
Acres (MA Planted)
75.7
77.7
77.7
77.7
Acres (MA Harvested)
74.6
76.8
76.8
76.3
Yield
39.6
43.3
42.3
41.3
15
10
10
10
3179
3450
3366
3272
Crushing
1660
1660
1690
1690
Exports
1280
1250
1280
1280
Seed, Feed
129
170
175
175
Ending Stocks
110
370
220
127
$10.00
$7.75
$9.10
$10.00
3.6%
12.0%
7.0%
4.0%
Imports
Supply(M. Bu)
Use:
Projected Price
Stocks/Use
Million Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks
and Price, 1993-2009
700
$11.00
600
$10.00
500
$9.00
400
$8.00
300
$7.00
200
$6.00
100
$5.00
0
$4.00
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
F
Ending Stocks
Price/Bu
Foreign Production
WASDE-474 September 11, 2009
Argentina
Billion bushels
09/10 P
Beg. Stocks
.560
Production
1.873
Exports
.356
Total Domestic Use 1.721
Ending Stocks
.731
08/09 E
.800
1.176
.219
1.475
.560
07/08
.830
1.698
.508
1.837
.800
Foreign Production
WASDE-474 September 11, 2009
Brazil
Billion bushels
09/10 P
Beg. Stocks
.435
Production
2.278
Exports
.898
Total Domestic Use 2.171
Ending Stocks
.547
08/09 E
.694
2.094
1.078
2.356
.435
07/08
.668
2.241
.932
2.219
.694
Foreign Production
WASDE-474 September 11, 2009
China
Billion bushels
09/10 P
Beg. Stocks
.303
Production
.551
Imports
1.415
Total Use (includes exports) 1.990
Ending Stocks
.279
08/09 E
.156
.588
1.462
1.886
.303
07/08
.099
.514
1.390
1.831
.156
China has committed to buy 430 million bushels of U.S.
soybeans. This is 62% of total imports from U.S. and
30% of total imports.
World Supply & Demand
WASDE-474 September 11, 2009
Billion bushels
09/10 P
Beg. Stocks
1.478
Production
8.963
Imports
2.757
Total Domestic Use 8.511
Exports
2.831
Ending Stocks
1.857
08/09 E
1.944
7.742
2.732
8.136
2.804
1.478
07/08
2.311
8.125
2.872
8.442
2.921
1.944
9.1925
Summary & Observations
• Outside influences are affecting the market.
• Crop is later than normal, yields uncertain.
• Next USDA S & D Report – October 8, 2009
– Will there be an acreage surprise?
•
•
•
•
Strong Chinese demand, will it continue?
Acreage estimates for 2010
Soybean/corn ratio
Weekly Comments
– http://economics.ag.utk.edu/cropcomm.html
• http://economics.ag.utk.edu/careers.html