2008/09 Outlook for Dairy Prices and Dairy Policy … Department of Agricultural Economics or the Pretty Good, the Really Bad, & Not So Ugly C.W. “Bill” Herndon, Jr. Mississippi State University Southern Outlook Conference Atlanta, GA September 22, 2008 1 THE PRETTY GOOD… Department of Agricultural Economics Sustaining Strong/Near Record High Milk Prices 2 Current Dairy/Milk Price Highlights Department of Agricultural Economics Dairy Product Prices: as of Sept. 22nd Cheese Prices “volatile” block prices 40# Blocks $1.9825/lb … up/down ~60¢ since Jan. 2 500# Barrels $1.9325/lb … up over the past 2 weeks Grade AA Butter $1.7250 … up ~45¢ since January Grade A NDM $1.10 … down 12¢ last Friday & weak Dry Whey ~22+¢ … steady but 75% since June 07 Nonfat Dry Milk Prices from ’07 record highs Dry Whey prices from record highs Adv. October Class I milk price was supposed to be announced last Friday (Sept 19) BUT 3 Butter Prices improving & stable Sept. Adv. Class I price is $21.45/cwt … DOWN $3.13 ( 12.7%) from July Milk prices “weakening” slightly Why are Dairy Product Prices Important? Drive Milk Prices!! Department of Agricultural Economics 4 Source: Roger Cyan, NMPF, Dairy Market Report Global Demand has & is Sustaining U.S. Dairy Prices … WHY!! Department of Agricultural Economics 5 U.S. dairy markets and prices have historically been heavily influenced by supply issues or, the ebbs and flows of milk output in U.S. & worldwide 2007 saw a “sea change” and now U.S. dairy prices are responding to demand factors … & specifically, global demand Dairy traders and industry personnel are seeing this “shift” continue in 2008 and into 2009 and beyond ?? Factors causing Global Demand to Influence U.S. Dairy Prices Department of Agricultural Economics Supply side factors … limiting exports 1. 2. 3. 4. 6 European Union (EU) changed milk price supports which decreased milk output EU added 12 nations (Eastern European) and these countries have consumed most of the EU’s former dairy exports New Zealand has limited land area to continue expanding milk production … so, exports have not grown Australia’s prolonged drought has curtailed milk output ~30% & exports Factors causing Global Demand to Influence U.S. Dairy prices Department of Agricultural Economics Demand side factors … enhancing exports 1. 2. 3. 7 China’s & India’s economy transforming into an industrial society these new industrial workers with added income want to consume dairy products China & India have almost 2.5 Billion consumers Value of U.S. Dollar has declined significantly (60+%) making U.S. dairy products less costly for international consumers Weak US Dollar Aiding U.S. Exports Department of Agricultural Economics 8 Weak US Dollar Aiding U.S. Exports Department of Agricultural Economics 9 Resulting in … Increased U.S. Dairy Product Demand/Exports Department of Agricultural Economics Exports as % of US Production Product Group Total 2007 39% Jan-July 2008 50% Butter/AMF/butteroil 6% 12.8% Cheese 2% 3.2% Total Whey 58% 47% Milk Solids 9.5% 11.5% SMP/NDM FY 07/08 Exports will exceed $4B 1st Trade Surplus 10 Bottomline: U.S. Dairy Products are a “Good Value” Department of Agricultural Economics The lack of export competition from: 11 EU – world’s largest dairy exporter New Zealand – 2nd largest exporter Australia – 3rd largest dairy exporter Weak U.S. Dollar making U.S. dairy products “cheaper” in world markets Growing dairy demand in China, India and Latin America Caused record-high U.S. dairy prices in 2007 & transforming dairy markets Domestic Dairy Demand Strong, too!! Department of Agricultural Economics Per capita consumption of dairy products increasing over past 10 years 1997 2007 %Δ All Products, ME 567 lbs 610 lbs +7.6% Fluid Milk/Cream 216 lbs 206 lbs -4.6% Butter 4.1 lbs +14% 4.7 lbs American Cheese 11.8 lbs 12.8 lbs +8.5% Other Cheeses 12 15.7 lbs 19.9 lbs +27% Supply trying to Keep Up with Demand Department of Agricultural Economics Growth in milk production is “slowing” … US Milk production is expected to rise 2.1% in 2008 up only 3.9 B lbs. 2008 Output projected to be 189.5B 2009 Output projected @ 190.3B 0.4% High feed costs have curtailed growth in milk output 13 Aug ‘08 vs Aug ’07 up 1.1% (feed costs!!) First 8 months of ’08 vs. ‘07 up 2.5% Since May, same month ‘07vs‘08 growth ebbing Farmers very cautious about adding cows and holding “cull” cows Department of Agricultural Economics Source: Roger Cyan, NMPF, Dairy Market Report 14 Department of Agricultural Economics 15 Up 2.53% thru Aug Increasing Milk Output Driven by More Cows Department of Agricultural Economics Up 120-130K Head, or 1.4% 16 Sustaining Prices in ’08 & ‘09 Department of Agricultural Economics USDA expects a slight decrease in milk and dairy product prices in 2008 down 5-7% All Milk Price expected to fall from $19+/cwt in ’07 to ~$18.85 in ’08 to ~$18.25 in ‘09 Class III (cheese) price could fall $0.20/cwt from $18 to $17/cwt in ‘08 Class IV (butter/powder) price projected to decline about $2.00 from $18.35 to $16.30/cwt Dairy product prices moves mixed in ’08 17 Milk prices forecast down 25-30¢ vs. ‘07 Cheese prices rise from $1.73 to $1.92lb Butter prices up from $1.34 to $1.42/lb NDM prices down from $1.71 to $1.38/lb Department of Agricultural Economics Source: Roger Cyan, NMPF, Dairy Market Report 18 Department of Agricultural Economics Source: Roger Cyan, NMPF, Dairy Market Report 19 Department of Agricultural Economics Source: Roger Cyan, NMPF, Dairy Market Report 20 My Forecast for 2008 is “Better” Department of Agricultural Economics 21 Based on ebb & flow of cheese prices, it is my opinion that milk prices could set yet another record high during 2008up (or down) 20-25¢ Strong global demand, weak US Dollar and CWT herd buyout leads me to contend that farm-level milk prices will average more than $20/cwt again during 2008 2003 thru 2007 & Forecast 2008 Avg Class I Price: FO#7 Base Zone Department of Agricultural Economics Average Class I Milk Prices in Southeast FO Dollars per Cwt. $22.00 $0.27/cwt $21.24 $21.51 $20.00 $18.08 $18.00 $17.50 $16.00 $17.26 $14.98 $14.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 Years 22 Proj.2008 03-'07 Avg 2003 thru 2007 & Forecast 2008 Avg “Blend” Prices: FO#7 Base Zone 2008 All Milk Price for MS = $20.40/cwt. Department of Agricultural Economics Southeast FO Monthly "Blend" Milk Prices 2006 2007 2008 2003 - 2007 $24 $22 2007 = $20.40 2008 = $20.25 $20 $18 $16 5-yr = $14.69 $14 2006 = $13.89 $12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Months 23 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec. Price Outlook …THE PRETTY GOOD Department of Agricultural Economics Most dairy market analysts expect global demand to maintain milk prices and average $20/cwt during 2008 24 Even the most pessimistic forecasts have milk prices exceeding $18/cwt in 2008 & 2009 CONCERN? milk output is still increasing! Dairy & milk prices will “rise” slightly in 2008 up $0.20 -$0.25/cwt, or ~1% Dairy & milk prices expected to fall in 2009 down $0.50 -$0.60/cwt, or ~2-3% Key factor: Continued robust international demand for U.S. dairy products ??? THE REALLY BAD … Department of Agricultural Economics Dramatically Increased Feed Costs!! 25 THE REALLY BAD… Feed Costs Department of Agricultural Economics Increasing demand for corn used as a feedstock for ethanol has pushed corn/feed prices up sharply in 07/08 USDA is now predicting corn prices will be up +100% in 2008 vs. ‘06 USDA reported the Milk-Feed Price Ratio for May at 1.83 vs. 3.0?? 26 or, from $3.04 to $6.00+/bushel Lowest since began reporting in 1985 Record Low Milk-Feed Price Ratio Department of Agricultural Economics May = 1.83 Aug = 1.89 27 Department of Agricultural Economics Source: Roger Cyan, NMPF, Dairy Market Report 28 Milk Production Cost Increases Department of Agricultural Economics Dollars per Cwt. vs. 2002 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 Feed 29 2007 Non-feed 2008 2009 What’s driving up feed costs? Department of Agricultural Economics Primary factor that is obvious to virtually everyone on the planet Earth Increasing corn use for growing ethanol production in the U.S. Livestock and dairy producers have/are bearing burnt of the negative impacts of this “ethanol revolution” 30 Many questioning survival of industry Let’s look at some “troubling” data WOW … US Corn Balance Sheet Department of Agricultural Economics 2004/05 2005/06 Harv Acres 73.60 75.10 70.60 86.5 79.3 Yield 160.4 148.0 149.1 151.1 142.9 Prodn. 11.807 11.114 10.535 13.074 12,070 Ethanol 1.323 1.603 2.117 3.000 4.000 Exports 1.818 2.147 2.125 2.425 2.000 Total Use 10.662 11.270 11.210 12.820 12.645 End. Stks. 2.114 1.967 1.304 1.576 1.018 2.06 2.00 3.04 4.20 5.006.00 Price 31 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Increasing Corn Use for Ethanol Department of Agricultural Economics 32.0% 11.0% 16.0% 23.1% 10.5% 18.9% 20 07 / 08 47.5% 18.9% 12.2% 19.0% 12.2% 18.9% 06 / 07 49.9% 20 14.2% 54.6% 20 05 /0 6 Marketing Year 20 08 / 09 41.2% 12.4% 12.8% 17.1% 20 04 / 05 57.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of Total Corn Use Feed & Residual 32 Ethanol Other Industrial Exports Feedstuff Prices @ Memphis Department of Agricultural Economics 05/08/07 06/17/08 09/16/08 CSM 41% $140 $305 $300 WCS $148 $405 $320 $79 $140 $120 Corn Gluten Feed (20% Protein) $105 $170 $165 Soybean Hulls $100 $137 $175 $77 $110 $120 Wheat Midds Rice Bran Source: USDA Ag Marketing Service. LR_GR210.txt 33 Futures Contract Feedgrain Prices Department of Agricultural Economics Sept 19 Settle $$ CORN SOYBEANS WHEAT July 2009 July 2010 July 2011 $5.78 $5.94 $5.74 $11.92 $11.39 $11.34 $7.62 $8.16 $8.50 Source: FutureSource.com 34 Dairy Policy/Programs are … Department of Agricultural Economics The NOT SO UGLY!! 35 The “New” 2008 Farm Bill Department of Agricultural Economics 36 FINALLY PASSED/BECAME LAW on JUNE 18th Congress over-rode President’s veto for the second time Most dairy features of the 2002 Farm Bill were maintained Most controversial issue was Income Means test via Adjusted Gross Income, or AGI not Dairy issues!! The “New” 2008 Farm Bill Department of Agricultural Economics 37 BIG QUESTION ANSWERED: All basic dairy programs were maintained in the “new” Farm Bill There are 10 sections in the Dairy Title of the 2008 Farm Bill Only 3 or 4 have any impacts on dairy farmers … and will review MILC Focus on the changes in the MILC program which is of most importance to milk producers Milk Income Loss Contract (MILC) Department of Agricultural Economics Dairy Income Loss Contract program is maintained under 2008 Farm Bill and enhanced several ways Currently, MILC has a payment rate of 34% of difference between the Class I Boston price and $16.94/cwt “trigger” The maximum volume of milk eligible to receive MILC payments is 2.4 Million lbs. during a 12-month fiscal year 38 Volume represents amount of milk produced by 140-145 cows MILC -- continued Department of Agricultural Economics Under 2008 Farm Bill, payment rate and eligible volume increases … along with adding a Feed Cost Adjuster Starting October 1st (10 days), the MILC payment rate increases to 45% of the difference between the Class I Boston price & “adjusted” trigger price Maximum volume of milk eligible to receive MILC payments increased to 2.985 Million lbs. during a 12-month fiscal year 39 Volume represents amount of milk produced by 160-165 cows MILC -- continued Department of Agricultural Economics The Feed Cost Adjuster modifies/increases the “trigger” by 45% of the difference between the $7.35/cct base feed cost and the month’s adjusted feed cost Base feed cost ration consist of: The $7.35/cwt. base feed cost will be used from Oct 2008 thru Sept. 2012 in Oct. 2012 base feed cost increases to $9.35/cwt 40 51% corn 41% alfalfa hay 8% soybeans Also in Oct. 2012, payment rate reverts to 34% & the volume cap decreases to 2.4 Million lbs. Feed Cost Adjuster – Impact on Trigger Price Department of Agricultural Economics Rules of Thumb … If dairy feed ration exceeds $7.35 41 $0.10 increase in corn price - $0.09 increase in the MILC trigger $10 increase in alfalfa price - $0.21 increase in the MILC trigger $0.20 increase in soybean price - $0.025 increase in the MILC trigger For every $1.00 increase in base feed costs, trigger rises by ~ $1.00/cwt. Feed Cost Adjuster – Impact on Trigger Price Department of Agricultural Economics 42 For Aug 2008, the base feed cost has jumped to $9.77/cwt. or by $2.42 above the $7.35 base cost This caused the trigger price to increase from $16.94 to more than $19.40/cwt. or $19.45 See table and graphs for details MILC Trigger Calculation Department of Agricultural Economics Aug 2008 $19.45 Dairy Ration Cost =$9.77/cwt 43 Summary of “New” Farm Bill? Department of Agricultural Economics New features to MILC 2008 Farm Bill raises the safety net 44 Feed cost adjuster adds a new twist Especially if you meet the cap in a month or two 2009 may see MILC payments made … but not expected to be used often Lower energy prices would change that 5th Round of CWT’s Herd Buyout Department of Agricultural Economics June 3rd, NMPF/CWT announced its 5th Dairy Herd Buyout Round Retired 24,860 head from 209 herds Average Bid Price = $6.10/cwt 32 bids accepted from Southeast dairies 45 Removed 436 M lbs. of milk production 2 AR, 1 FL, 3 GA, 3 KY, 4 LA, 5 MS, 6 MO, 4 NC, 2 TN, & 1 WV If bid accepted, CWT pays farmer the “bid price” for volume of milk produced by that dairy herd in a 12 month period Department of Agricultural Economics 32 Bids Accepted in SE CWT maintained NO Regional Safeguards during this 5th Round 46 USDA Implements Revised Class I Price Surface for SE Federal Orders Department of Agricultural Economics 47 On May 1st, the USDA implemented a revised Class I pricing surface for the Southeast, Appalachian and Florida Federal Milk Orders Main Purpose: Increase Class I price differentials to provide price incentives to move milk west-toeast & north-to-south within 3 FOs Impacts in Southeast … Department of Agricultural Economics No or little increase in LA, MS and AR Atlanta differential increased by 70¢/cwt 48 Increases Class I price differentials in most locations/plants across the Southeast Largest increases in South Florida by as much as $1.80/cwt. USDA estimated increasing differentials added 24¢/cwt. to dairy farmers milk checks Department of Agricultural Economics 49 Department of Agricultural Economics 50 Department of Agricultural Economics QUESTIONS?? and/or Comments?? 51