Poultry Outlook
2002
Southern Region
Agricultural Outlook Conference
6/29/2016
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
1
Introduction


6/29/2016
Examine the outlook for the U.S.
poultry industry, with focus on
broilers
Steve Murray, de facto poultry
economist
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
2
Topics of Discussion



6/29/2016
Market structure of the broiler
industry
Recent consumption patterns
Issues affecting demand for
broilers next year
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
3
Land Grants & the
Poultry Industry



6/29/2016
Traditionally relate to industry
through Poultry Science
Departments
Work with poultry farmers in areas
such as litter management
Poultry industry support the Land
Grant system
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
4
Real Life


6/29/2016
The word “chicken” was never
uttered while I was at Oklahoma
State
The demand for poultry information
from agricultural economists is
very limited
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
5
No Live Market for
Chickens!



6/29/2016
No sale of chickens takes place at
the farm gate
Very few whole birds are sold
No one will call asking for chicken
prices
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
6
Per Capita Consumption
Year
Beef
Pork
1960
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
6/29/2016
63.3
84.4
76.6
67.8
67.5
69.6
66.2
64
Total Chicken
59.1
55.8
57.3
49.7
52.4
52.4
53
53
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
28
40.3
48
61.5
70.4
77.8
79.4
81.5
7
Georgia Dock Parts
Wtd. Avg.
$/lb.
Item
Line run tenders
Breasts- B/S
Breasts- whole
Thigh meat B/S
Leg quarters
Wings
6/29/2016
January 18, 2002
$
1.82
$
1.32
$
0.60
$
0.87
$
0.29
$
0.95
September 13, 2002
$
1.83
$
1.58
$
0.84
$
0.59
$
0.19
$
0.55
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
8
Deboned Breast Meat and Bone-In Leg Quarters
(Millions of Metric Tons)
Year Deboned Breast Meat Bone-In Leg Quarters
1980
0.2
0.4
1990
0.7
1.4
2000
1.4
2.7
2010
2.3
4.6
from Paul Aho in WATT
Poultry USA
6/29/2016
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
9
US Chicken Production in Billions
Year Total Chickens Large Chickens % Large
1980
1990
2000
2010
3.9
5.8
8.0
9.0
0.4
1.6
3.0
5.0
10%
28%
38%
56%
Large chicken > 5.25 lbs. live
6/29/2016
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
10
Broiler Production, 2001
Million lbs.wk RTC % of US
Tyson
146
23%
Gold Kist
60
9%
Pilgrim's Pride
57
9%
ConAgra
48
7%
Perdue Farms
47
7%
55%
Industry
6/29/2016
648
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
11
:
Number
: Produced
: 1,000 Head
State
:
6/29/2016
GA
AR
AL
MS
NC
TX
MD
VA
DE
KY
1,229,700
1,191,700
1,038,700
739,900
698,400
551,000
283,300
264,900
247,700
230,000
Steve Murray, Mississippi
State
University
12
6/29/2016
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
13
Broiler Exports
GRAND TOTAL
01/1999--12/1999 01/2000--12/2000
EXPORT
EXPORT
VALUE
VALUE
1,427,804,700
1,606,328,241
Hong Kong
Russian Federation
Canada
Japan
Mexico
Latvia
Korea; Republic of
China; Peoples Republic of
Georgia; Republic of
6/29/2016
322,011,392
147,504,338
166,052,820
121,450,444
78,533,842
135,090,439
29,551,795
45,734,917
12,555,743
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
353,740,915
305,357,280
183,174,073
118,588,436
102,901,788
60,195,778
45,067,506
43,149,388
36,516,153
14
Broiler Exports, 1992 and 2000
GRAND TOTAL
01/1992--12/1992 01/2000--12/2000
EXPORT
EXPORT
VALUE
VALUE
660,951,323
1,606,328,241
Hong Kong
Russian Federation
Canada
Japan
Mexico
Latvia
Korea; Republic of
China; Peoples Republic of
Georgia; Republic of
6/29/2016
127,215,110
10,696,705
86,668,652
125,763,590
68,873,120
0
5,207,888
5,603,542
0
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
353,740,915
305,357,280
183,174,073
118,588,436
102,901,788
60,195,778
45,067,506
43,149,388
36,516,153
15
Chicken Industry Revenue 2000 with Russia
% of Chicken
Leg Quarters
Breasts
Wings
50%
38%
12%
Price /Lb.
$
$
$
Revenue
0.25 $ 4.0 billion
0.60 $ 7.3 billion
0.80 $ 3.3 billion
Total Revenue
$ 14.6 billion
Chicken Industry Revenue 2000 Without Russia
% of Chicken
6/29/2016
Price /Lb.
Leg Quarters
50%
$
Revenue
0.15 $ 2.4 billion
Breasts
38%
$
0.60 $ 7.3 billion
Wings
12%
$
0.80 $ 3.3 billion
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
Total Revenue
University
$ 13.0 billion
16
Chicken Cycle



6/29/2016
Short
21 days for eggs to hatch
42 days to grow a 5 pound chicken
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
17
BROILERS
2001
2002
2003
31,266
32,304
33,000
Per capita consumption, retail lb 1/
Broilers
76.5
80.2
80.2
Market prices
Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb
59.1
55-56
57-61
5,557
4,868
5,450
Production, million lb
Broilers
U.S. trade, million lb
Broiler exports
6/29/2016
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
18
TURKEYS
2001
2002
2003
5,562
5,658
5,675
Per capita consumption, retail lb 1/
Turkeys
17.5
17.3
17.5
Market prices
Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb
66.3 65-66
Production, million lb
Turkeys
U.S. trade, million lb
Turkey exports
6/29/2016
487
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
496
64-69
490
19
EGGS
Table eggs, mil. doz.
2001
6,074
2002
6,125
2003
6,110
Per capita consumption, number
Eggs,number
252.6
251.8
248.7
Market prices
Eggs, New York, cents/doz.
67.2
66-67
64-69
6/29/2016
Steve Murray, Mississippi State
University
20