Outlook for U.S. Agriculture
Gerald A. Bange
World Agricultural Outlook Board
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Presentation to the Southern Regional Outlook Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, September 24, 2001
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
2000/01
estimate
Planted area (million acres)
Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (bushels per acre)
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
Food use
Seed
Feed and residual
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks to use ratio
Average market price
2001/02
forecast
62.5
59.6
53.0
49.3
41.9
40.4
Million bushels
950
873
2,223
1,991
90
90
3,263
2,954
957
960
80
87
292
225
1,328
1,272
1,061
1,050
2,390
2,322
873
632
Percent
36.5
27.2
Dollars per bushel
2.62
2.70/3.10
Change from Change from
last month
last year
Percent
0.0
-4.7
0.0
-7.0
0.5
-3.6
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
-1.0
0.0
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-0.4
2.7
0.0/-6.1
-8.1
-10.5
0.2
-9.5
0.3
9.1
-22.8
-4.2
-1.1
-2.8
-27.6
3.1/18.3
Kansas City Wheat No. 1
Average Weekly Price and Kansas City Futures
Dollars per bushel
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.5
1999
2000
2001
2.2
Jan
Feb
Mar
Contract month
Kansas City No. 2 HRW
December, 2001
March, 2002
May, 2002
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Week ending 9/14/2001
Average
Close
3.01
3.14
3.21
2.96
3.09
3.16
Aug
Sep
Oct
Week ending 9/7/2001
Average
Close
Dollars per bushel
3.06
3.18
3.25
3.02
3.14
3.20
Nov
Dec
Change for the week
Average
Close
-0.05
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.06
-0.05
U.S. Rice Supply and Demand
Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice
Planted area (million acres)
Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (pounds per acre)
2000/01
estimate
2001/02
forecast
3.06
3.04
6,281
3.32
3.29
6,272
Change from Change from
last month
last year
Percent
2.1
8.4
2.1
8.3
2.0
-0.1
Million hundredweight
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total supply
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
27.5
190.9
10.5
228.8
116.4
84.0
200.4
28.4
28.4
206.3
10.8
245.5
121.1
86.0
207.1
38.5
21.9
4.1
0.0
5.7
-2.4
2.4
-0.5
58.3
3.5
8.1
2.4
7.3
4.0
2.4
3.3
35.3
Percent
Stocks/use
14.2
18.6
Dollars/hundredweight
Average market price
5.56
3.75/4.25
-22.7/-20.6
-32.6/-23.6
Rice Prices
U.S. season average vs. average world price
$/cwt
10.0
U.S. season-average price
8.5
Premium
Average world price
7.0
5.5
4.0
2.5
1985/86
Between 1986/87 and 1999/2000, U.S. rice commanded a premium
averaging $1.25/cwt. The premium in 2000/01 was $2.36, and the
forecast for 2001/02 is $1.20.
1989/90
Note: The average world price is announced weekly by USDA.
1993/94
1997/98
2001/02f
Southern Iowa Corn
Dollars per bushel
2.3
Average Weekly Price, Yellow No. 2 and Chicago Futures
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
1999
2000
2001
1.4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Contract month
Chicago No. 2 Yellow
December, 2001
January, 2002
March, 2002
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Week ending 9/14/2001
Average
Close
2.27
2.31
2.38
2.24
2.28
2.36
Aug
Sep
Oct
Week ending 9/7/2001
Average
Close
Dollars per bushel
2.28
2.32
2.40
2.26
2.30
2.37
Nov
Dec
Change for the week
Average
Close
-0.02
-0.01
-0.02
-0.01
-0.02
-0.02
U.S. Corn Supply and Demand
2000/01
estimate
Planted area (million acres)
Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (bushels per acre)
Beginning stocks
Production
Total supply
Feed and residual
Food, seed, and industrial
Domestic use
Exports
Total use
Ending stocks
Stocks/use
Average market price
2001/02
forecast
79.5
76.0
72.7
69.2
137.1
133.5
Million bushels
1,718
1,938
9,968
9,238
11,693
11,186
5,850
5,800
1,965
2,050
7,815
7,850
1,940
1,975
9,755
9,825
1,938
1,361
Percent
19.9
13.9
Dollars per bushel
1.85
1.95/2.35
Change from Change from
last month
last year
Percent
0.0
-4.4
0.0
-4.9
-0.3
-2.6
-3.2
-0.3
-0.9
0.4
0.0
0.3
-1.3
0.0
-6.7
12.8
-7.3
-4.3
-0.9
4.3
0.4
1.8
0.7
-29.8
2.6/2.2
5.4/27.0
U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand
2000/01
estimate
Planted area (million acres)
Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (bushels per acre)
Beginning stocks
Production
Imports
Total Supply
Crush
Seed and Resid.
Domestic use
Exports
Total Use
Ending stocks
Stocks/use ratio
Average market price
2001/02
forecast
74.5
75.2
72.7
74.1
38.1
38.2
Million bushels
290
240
2,770
2,834
3
4
3,063
3,078
1,635
1,660
188
173
1,823
1,833
1,000
990
2,823
2,823
240
255
Percent
8.5
9.0
Dollars per bushel
4.55
4.40/5.40
Change from Change from
last month
last year
Percent
-0.3
1.0
0.0
2.0
-1.2
0.3
-4.0
-1.2
6.3
-1.4
0.3
0.9
0.4
-0.5
0.1
-15.1
1.1/0.9
-17.4
2.3
41.7
0.5
1.5
-8.2
0.5
-1.0
0.0
6.3
-3.3/18.7
Southern Iowa Soybeans
Average Weekly Price, No. 1 and Chicago Futures
Dollars per bushel
5.6
5.2
4.9
4.5
4.2
1999
2000
2001
3.8
Jan
Feb
Mar
Contract month
Chicago No. 1 Yellow
November, 2001
January, 2002
March, 2002
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Week ending 9/14/2001
Average
Close
4.74
4.80
4.86
4.74
4.81
4.87
Aug
Sep
Oct
Week ending 9/7/2001
Average
Close
Dollars per bushel
4.76
4.82
4.88
4.70
4.76
4.82
Nov
Dec
Change for the week
Average
Close
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
0.04
0.04
0.05
Soybean stocks and prices
Million tons
25
Dollars/bushel
8.0
U.S. and South America stocks
7.5
20
7.0
15
6.5
U.S. season-average price
6.0
10
5.5
5
U.S. stocks
5.0
0
4.5
1980/81
1985/86
1990/91
1995/96
2000/01
China: Imports of Soybeans and Soybean Oil
Thousand metric tons
Thousand metric tons
16,000
1,800
14,000
1,600
1,400
12,000
1,200
10,000
1,000
Soybeans (left)
8,000
Soybean oil (right)
800
6,000
600
4,000
400
2,000
200
0
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Brazil Soybean Production
Million tons
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
The Collapse of the Brazilian Real
Reals per Dollar
2.70
2.65
2.60
2.55
Since July of 2000, the real
has fallen 49 percent against
the U.S. dollar.
2.50
2.45
2.40
2.35
2.30
2.25
2.20
2.15
2.10
2.05
2.00
1.95
1.90
1.85
1.80
1.75
July 2000
August
September
October November December
January
2001
February
March
April
May
June
July 2001
August
September
Soybean Prices – U.S. and Brazil
Index
M ay 2000 = 1
1.40
1.30
Since May of 2000, the U.S.
dollar price of soybeans has
fallen 6 percent, but the price
in Brazilian reals has risen 33
percent.
1.20
1.10
Dollars
Real
1.00
0.90
0.80
May-00 Jun-00
Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 Nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01
Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01
Jul-01 Aug-01
Argentina Soybean Production
Million tons
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
forecast
Farm Land Values
Dollars per acre
1,400
1,300
Nominal
Real (1996 dollars)
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand
2000/01
estimate
Planted area (million acres)
Harvested area (million acres)
Yield (pounds per acre)
Beginning stocks
Imports
Production
Total supply
Mill use
Exports
Total use
Unaccounted
Ending stocks
Stocks to use ratio
Average market price
2001/02
forecast
15.52
16.19
13.05
14.14
632
679
Million bales
3.92
6.03
0.02
0.01
17.19
19.99
21.13
26.04
8.87
8.30
6.70
9.00
15.57
17.30
-0.48
0.04
6.03
8.70
Percent
38.75
50.29
Cents per pound
50.40*
**
Change from Change from
last month
last year
Percent
0.0
-1.4
1.3
4.3
8.4
7.4
8.7
0.0
-0.1
1.8
-2.4
0.0
-1.1
53.8
-33.3
16.3
23.2
-6.4
34.3
11.1
7.4
44.2
*Average upland price for August 2000-July 2001. **USDA is prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections.
Cotton 8-Market Price
Cents per pound
64
Average Weekly Price, SLM 1 1/16 and New York Futures
57
50
44
37
1999
2000
2001
30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Contract month
New York 1 1/16
October, 2001
December, 2001
March, 2002
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Week ending 9/14/2001
Average
Close
36.70
37.99
39.86
36.50
37.73
39.62
Aug
Sep
Oct
Week ending 9/7/2001
Average
Close
Cents per pound
37.73
39.00
40.86
36.50
37.84
39.74
Nov
Dec
Change for the week
Average
Close
-1.03
-1.01
-1.00
0.00
-0.11
-0.12
U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand
2000/01
August
Beginning stocks
Production
Beets
Cane
TRQ imports
Other imports
Total supply
Exports
Domestic deliveries
Miscellaneous
Total use
Ending stocks
Held by CCC
2,219
8,622
4,550
4,072
1,245
365
12,450
125
10,310
50
10,485
1,965
740
Stocks-to-use ratio
Excluding CCC
18.7
11.7
2000/01
2001/02
September
August
1,000 short tons, raw value
2,219
1,965
8,672
8,405
4,600
4,150
4,072
4,255
1,245
NA
365
390
12,500
NA
125
125
10,260
10,440
50
50
10,435
10,615
2,065
NA
740
690
Percent
19.8
12.7
2001/02
September
2,065
8,345
4,150
4,195
NA
295
NA
125
10,440
50
10,615
NA
690
U.S. Meat Production and Prices
Item
Production
2000
2001
Change
from 2000
Billion pounds
Billion pounds
Percent
2002
Change
from 2001
Billion pounds
Percent
Beef
26.78
26.09
-2.6
25.15
-3.6
Pork
18.93
18.83
-0.5
19.63
4.2
Broilers
30.50
30.92
1.4
31.60
2.2
Turkey
5.40
5.51
2.0
5.70
3.4
82.58
82.27
-0.4
82.96
0.8
Total meat
Prices
Dollars/Cwt
Steers
69.65
73.69
4.04
78.75
5.07
Hogs
44.70
47.10
2.40
44.50
-2.60
Cents/pound
Broilers
56.2
59.1
3.0
61.3
2.1
Turkey
70.5
66.6
-4.0
68.3
1.7
U.S. Meat Exports
2000
2001
August
Change
2001
from last
September month
2002
August
Change
2002
from last
September month
Million pounds
Beef
2,516
2,369
2,293
-76
2,500
2,400
-100
Pork
1,305
1,543
1,541
-2
1,415
1,415
0
Broilers
5,548
6,060
6,183
123
6,200
6,350
150
Turkey
458
491
492
1
495
495
0
Mature Chickens
223
95
94
-1
80
80
0
10,056
10,562
10,607
45
10,694
10,744
50
Total Meat
U.S. Milk Supply and Demand
1999/2000
2000/01
Change from
1999/2000
Billion pounds
Billion pounds
Percent
Production
167.4
165.3
-1.2
169.2
2.3
Commercial use
168.5
170.3
1.1
172.1
1.1
Item
CCC net removals 1/
Butter
Cheese
Nonfat dry milk
Dry whole milk
Average market price 2/
BFP/Class III 3/
Class IV
All milk
Million pounds Million pounds
11
17
690
34
0
16
540
3
Percent
-5.9
-21.7
-91.2
2001/02
Change from
2000/01
Billion pounds
Percent
Million pounds
Percent
5
6
170
0
-62.5
-68.5
12.30
12.80
14.10
0.00
-1.10
-0.35
Dollars/Cwt
9.99
11.51
12.61
12.30
13.90
14.45
1/ Includes products exported under the dairy export incentive program.
2/ Prices are mid-point of published forecasts; milk of average fat test.
3/ Basic formula price (BFP) through December 1999, class III price thereafter.
2.31
2.39
1.84
Export Summary
Item
Crops and Products
Wheat (Million bu)
Rice (Million cwt)
Corn (Million bu)
Soybeans (Million bu)
Soybean oil (Million lbs)
Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.)
Cotton (Million bales)
Meat (Million lbs)
Beef
Pork
Broilers
Turkey
Mature Chickens
Total Meat
2000/01
estimate
2001/02
forecast
Change from
last month
Change from
last year
Percent
1,061
84.0
1,940
1,000
1,400
7,750
6.70
1,050
86.0
1,975
990
2,550
7,600
9.00
0.0
2.4
-1.3
-0.5
2.0
0.0
0.0
-1.1
2.4
1.8
-1.0
82.1
-1.9
34.3
2,293
1,541
6,183
492
94
10,607
2,400
1,415
6,350
495
80
10,744
-4.0
0.0
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
4.7
-8.2
2.7
0.6
-14.9
1.3
U.S. Agricultural Trade
Percent
Bulk vs. High Value Exports
75
70
65
Bulk
High-value
67.5
60
55
50
45
40
35
32.5
30
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Fiscal year
U.S. Agricultural Trade
Total value and bulk volume
Million tons
Billion dollars
140
60
Bulk volume (left)
Total value (right)
130
55
50
120
45
110
40
35
100
30
90
25
80
20
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Fiscal year
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002 f
U.S. Agricultural Trade
Billion dollars
70
59.9
60
57.0
Exports
Imports
53.5
50
39.0
40
38.5
30
20
10
0
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Fiscal year
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002f
Government payments
Billion dollars
25
Dollar value and percent
Percent
45
Direct government payments
Percent of net cash income
20
40
35
30
15
25
20
10
15
10
5
5
0
0
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000p 2001f
Debt ratios
Ratio
30
Debt/equity
Debt/asset
27
24
21
18
15
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Revisions to 2000/01 China and World
Grain Stock Estimates
Ending Stocks
(mil. tons)
April 10
May 10
Stocks/Domestic Use
(percent)
April 10
May 10
China:
Wheat
Rice
Corn
Coarse Grains
13.7
20.0
32.0
32.4
54.2
95.0
80.5
80.9
12.1
14.6
26.7
24.7
47.9
70.7
67.1
61.6
113.6
61.6
105.8
142.9
158.7
135.6
155.3
193.2
19.1
15.3
17.5
16.2
26.9
33.8
25.8
22.0
World:
Wheat
Rice
Corn
Coarse Grains
N
o
r
t
h
C
h
i
n
a
P
l
a
i
n
T
o
t
a
lR
a
i
n
f
a
l
l
:M
a
y
1
3
1
1
2
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
1
D
r
i
e
s
t
8
0
Milmetrs
6
0
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
4
0
2
0
4
.
2
0
8
08
28
48
68
89
09
29
49
69
80
0
8
18
38
58
78
99
19
39
59
79
90
1
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
N
o
r
t
h
C
h
i
n
a
P
l
a
i
n
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e
:M
a
y
1
3
1
2
4
2
0
0
1
W
a
r
m
e
s
t
2
2
A
v
e
r
a
g
e
DegresC
2
0
1
8
1
6
8
0
8
1
8
2
8
3
8
4
8
5
8
6
8
7
8
8
8
9
9
0
9
1
9
2
9
3
9
4
9
5
9
6
9
7
9
8
9
9
0
0
0
1
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Joint Agricultural Weather Facility