OLLI
SLATE ENERGY
Spring 06
HOW WILL TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS BE
TRANSFORMED IN OUR ENERGY FUTURE?
GEORGE A. HUME
April 28, 2006
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Reference was made to the following internet sites in preparing
this presentation:
California Energy Commission: www.energy.ca.gov/
US Dept. of Energy, Energy Info. Admin.: www.eia.doe.gov
US Environmental Protect. Agency: www.epa.gov/otaq/invntory
California Air Resources Board: www.arb.ca.gov/homepage
WHY SHOULD WE BE INTERESTED AND CONCERNED
ABOUT FUEL USE IN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS?
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As the world’s fifth largest economy, California is really a nation state that runs on
energy.
Every day, we spend approximately:
 82 $million for gasoline and diesel
 82 $million for electricity
 22 $million for natural gas
About 38% of the state’s energy consumption is by the transportation sector and
currently nearly 100% of the transportation fuel is fossil fuel.
Demand for transportation fuel is projected to increase by 35% in 20 years.
Petroleum will be the primary source of fuel for transportation for the foreseeable
future.
Improving vehicle efficiency is currently the most effective means to reduce our
dependence on petroleum.
Candidate alternative transportation fuel sources include:
 Ethanol/methanol
• Gas (LNG, CNG, Propane)
 Biodiesel
• Gas-to-Liquid fuels
 Electric vehicles
• Hydrogen
• Fuel Cells
In 1999, mobile source emissions of carbon dioxide, methane,and nitrous oxide
were responsible for more than 215 million tons of greenhouse gases.
OUTLINE OF FOLLOWING DISCUSSION
POINTS
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Current status of fuel consumption within the
transportation segment
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Summary descriptions of Fuel Efficiency and Alternative
Fuel Options
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The plan to reduce Petroleum Dependency recommended
by the CA Energy Commission and the CA Air Resources
Board
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Fuel consumption projections based on the recommended
reduction plan.
PRICING TRENDS OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
IN CALIFORNIA
PROJECTED VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED
(VMT)
(2005 - 2025)
PROJECTED DEMAND FOR ON-ROAD
GASOLINE AND DIESEL
PROJECTED TRANSPORTATION FUEL USE
(2000 - 2025)
FUELS FOR AVIATION GAS TURBINES
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Several different kerosine related formulations of aviation turbine
(jet) fuel are produced to satisfy military and civilian specifications
and the unique needs of various operational uses.
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Civilian
JET A-1
JET A
JET B
Military
JP-4 (mil. JET B)
JP-5 (naval use)
JP-8 (MIL JET A-1 +)
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Annual consumption of aviation gas turbine fuel approximates 20%
of the transportation sector’s total petroleum consumption.
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Researchers at Penn State have produced very small quantities of a
jet fuel (provisionally designated JP-900) comparable to JET A or
JP-8, but derived from at least 50% bituminous coal.
TIRES AND FUEL EFFICIENCY
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Proper tire inflation can increase fuel efficiency as much as 3%.
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Original equipment tires generally have significantly lower rolling
resistance and better fuel economy than the average replacements
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The CA Energy Commission is funding tests of tire rolling resistance
and other characteristics and will publish comparative results to aid
consumers in the purchase of replacement tires.
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Some tire companies have begun marketing more fuel efficient tires
as part of their product lines.
CHARACTERISTICS AND EXPERIENCE
IN USING ALTERNATIVE FUELS
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Information from EPA, Transportation and Regional
Programs Division, fact sheets on the following clean
alternative fuels will be reviewed:
Ethanol
 Methanol
 Liquefied Natural Gas
 Propane
 Biodiesel
 Fischer-Tropsch “manufactured” diesel
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DEMAND REDUCTION DUE TO USE OF
FUEL EFFICIENCY OPTIONS
DEMAND REDUCTION DUE TO USE OF
FUEL SUBSTITUTION OPTIONS
FEDERAL FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS
PROGRAM
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Known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)
standards
Each model year (MY) manufacturers are required to:
- Achieve average of 27.5 mpg for fleet of new passenger cars
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- Achieve average of 20.7 mpg for fleet of new light duty trucks (includes
minivans and SUVs). Increased to 21.6 for MY 2006 and 22.2 for MY2007
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Despite its flaws, as a result of CAFE, gasoline consumption is
down roughly 2.8 million barrels/day from what it would be without
CAFE and greenhouse gas emissions translate to a 7% reduction in
CO2.
RECOMMENDED PLAN TO REDUCE
CALIFORNIA’S PETROLEUM DEPENDENCE
(as proposed by CA Energy Commission & Air Resources Board)
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I. Adopt a statewide goal of reducing demand for onroad gasoline and diesel to 15% below the 2003 demand
level by 2020 and maintain that level for foreseeable
future.
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II. Work in the national political arena to gain
establishment of federal fuel economy standards that
double the fuel efficiency of new cars, light trucks and
SUVs.
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III. Establish a goal to increase use of non-petroleum
fuels to 20% of on-road fuel consumption by 2020 and to
30% by 2030.
INCREMENTAL STEPS IN PLAN TO REDUCE
PETROLEUM DEPENDENCE
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Near-Term Actions (implemented now - 2010)
- Use more fuel efficient replacement tires & inflation
- Improve fuel economy in government owned fleets
- Improve vehicle maintenance
Mid-term Actions (implemented 2010 - 2020)
- Double fuel efficiency of LDV to 40 miles/gallon
- Use natural gas-derived Fischer-Tropsch as 33%
blending agent in diesel fuel
Long-term Actions (implemented 2020 - 2030)
- Introduce fuel cell LDV in 2012, increasing to 10% of
sales by 2020 and 20% by 2030.
DEMAND EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM
REDUCTION GOAL
IMPACT OF HYBRIDS AND LT. DUTY DIESELS
ON PROJECTED GASOLINE USE
OVERALL SUMMARY OF EFFECTS OF OPTIONS
IN ON-ROAD DEMAND FORECAST