OUR ENERGY FUTURE:
UPDATED
SC 203
January 30, 2008
John Bush
ENERGY POLICY:
SUMMARY OF ISSUES
• By using so much fossil fuel are we making the
Earth an unfit place for life?
• Is the world running out of oil?
• Is our nation endangered by our dependence on
imported oil?
• How will global demographic and economic
trends affect our energy future?
• How will energy supply choices affect the
availability of supplies of water and food?
• How might our “American Lifestyle” be affected?
ENERGY POLICY
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What is energy policy in the United States?
Who makes energy policy in the United States?
What is the energy policy of the United States?
What might the future energy policy of the
United States be?
• What do you think the energy policy of the
United States ought to be?
WHAT DO WE MEAN BY POLICY?
• “A policy is a deliberate plan of action to guide decisions
and achieve rational outcome(s). The term may apply to
government, private sector organizations and groups,
and individuals.” (Wikipedia)
• Levels of energy policy
– International (climate change)
– United State Government (climate change, peak oil, national
economic security, lifestyle)
– State governments
– Local governments
– Business firms
– Communities
– Households
– Individuals
POLICY INSTRUMENTS
• Governments: laws, regulations, taxes, incentives, direct
investments, communication
• Businesses: energy sourcing, energy efficiency of
products and production, communication
• Educational institutions: bases for understanding energy
issues; communication of this understanding; research
for more favorable options
• Religious institutions: conservation ethic, global
stewardship
• Households/Individuals: purchase decisions, lifestyle
choices, voting, participation in group actions,
communication
WHO IS PAYING ATTENTION?
• Energy policy does not appear to be a
“gut” issue for the American voter
• What are “gut” issues?
– The economy (housing debacle, jobs)
– The Iraq war
– Health care
– Illegal immigration
– Terrorism
PEAK OIL PANIC
• Is the oil peak now?
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
• What to do if you are convinced?
• Relocalization networks:
www.relocalize.net
• Portland Oregon “Peak Oil Resolution”
– Implement recommendations of the Peak Oil
Task Force
– Reduce oil and gas use 50% by 2030
ENERGY POLICY ACT
1992
• Federal procurement of alternative fuel
vehicles
• Encourage efficiency for buildings and
utilities
• Establish efficiency standards for buildings
and equipment
• Establish framework for competitive
development of renewable energy
technologies
ENERGY POLICY ACT
2002
• Authorizes loan guarantees for innovative technologies
that avoid greenhouse gas emissions
• Requires tripling of ethanol in national fuel supply by
2012
• Authorizes $200 million annually for clean coal
• Authorizes subsidies for developing alternative energy
sources
• Provides incentives for companies drilling in the Gulf of
Mexico
• Provides tax breaks for improvements to home efficiency
• Nuclear
– Extends indemnification through 2025
– Authorizes cost overrun support for 6 new nuclear plants
– Authorizes $1.25 billion to build a hydrogen/electricity producing
nuclear reactor
ENERGY POLICY ACT
2002
• Tax reductions
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$4.3 billion for nuclear power
$2.8 billion for fossil fuel production
$2.7 billion to extend the renewable electricity production credit
$1.6 billion in tax incentives for investments in clean coal
facilities
– $1.3 billion for conservation and energy efficiency
– $1.3 billion for alternative motor vehicles and fuels (ethanol,
methane, propane)
• Not included in final bill
--Drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
--Increasing vehicle efficiency standards (CAFE).
--Requiring increased reliance on non-greenhouse
gas-emitting energy sources similar to the Kyoto Protocol
ENERGY POLICY ACT
2007
• Increase vehicle fuel-economy standards to 35
mpg by 2020 (with an ethanol “loop-hole”)
• Increase biofuels to 36 billion gallons annually
by 2022
• Phase out incandescent light bulb by 2014
• Increase appliance efficiency standards
• Expand carbon sequestration projects
• New/renovated federal buildings must reduce
fossil-fuel-generated energy consumption by
100% by 2030
ENERGY POLICY ACT
2007
What was cut out
• $21 billion tax credits for wind, solar, electric
vehicles, bonds to finance renewable energy
• $9.4 billion cut in tax incentives for oil and gas
• Requirement that utilities produce 15% of their
energy from renewables
• Extension of tax credits for wind and solar
equipment
POTENTIAL ISSUES FOR NEXT
CONGRESS
• Cap-and-trade: Lieberman-Warner Climate
Security Act
• National renewable standard for utilities
• Wind and solar tax credits
• Establish an Advanced Research Projects
Agency-Energy (ARPA-E)
• Increase research/demonstration funding for
– Batteries for PHEVs
– Ethanol from cellulose
SENATE BILL S2191
CLIMATE SECURITY ACT OF 2007
• “A Manhattan Project for energy”: Max
Baucus D. MT.
• Requires greenhouse emitters to obtain
emission permits in order to operate
• Could lower greenhouse emissions 70%
by 2050
• Auction of permits could generate $3
trillion between 2012 and 2050
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
FEBRUARY 5
DEMOCRATS
WHAT DO THEY HAVE IN COMMON?
• By 2050 reduce carbon dioxide emissions
by 80-90% from 1990 levels
• Implement a cap-and-trade system
• Invest $13-$50 Billion for green energy
development
• Neutral to negative on nuclear power
DEMOCRATS
DIFFERENCES OF EMPHASIS
• Hillary Clinton
– 100,000 PHEVs in Federal fleet by 2015
– Enact standards on efficiency, mileage and renewable energy
– “Agnostic” about nuclear energy
• Barack Obama
– Expand nuclear power if waste disposal and proliferation
problems are resolved
– Deploy coal liquefaction if result is 20% less carbon emissions
than from conventional fuels
• John Edwards
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No nuclear power expansion
No coal liquefaction
Renewable energy target 50% by 2040
Increase mileage standards to 50 mpg by 2040
REPUBLICANS
• John McCain
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Probably pro-active policy on global warming
Supports mandatory emission caps
No carbon tax
Supports ethanol, PHEVs, and higher mileage standards
• Mitt Romney
– Expand drilling to OCS and ANWR
– Establish an Apollo-like “research initiative”
– Expand alternative sources of energy: “biodiesel, ethanol, nuclear, coal
gasification”
– Provide tariff protection for US ethanol
– Increase basic research on energy production, and energy efficiency
– Probably negative on measures to combat global warming
MORE REPUBLICANS
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Mike Huckabee
– Agnostic on role of human action in global warming—”be good stewards of the
earth”
– Supports “in principle” a mandatory emissions cap
– Energy independence by 2016: nuclear, clean coal, solar, wind
– Raise mileage standards: 35 mpg by 2020
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Rudolph Giulani
– Expand drilling to continental shelf (OCS) and Alaskan wilderness (ANWR)
– Establish an Apollo-like program for energy
– Expand nuclear power, coal to liquid fuel, wind power/hydro/solar, ethanol
supplies
– No emission caps or increase in mileage standards
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Ron Paul
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Agnostic on global warming
No carbon tax
No tariffs on ethanol
No regulation to control emissions
Expand nuclear energy
SUGGESTED NATIONAL
ENERGY POLICY ULTIMATE
GOALS
• Provide alternative energy systems that will
replace petroleum use by 2050 or sooner
• Establish an economically optimal mix of energy
sources based on America’s full resource
endowment
• Reduce carbon emissions to a world-agreed
level
• Through a mix of conservation and efficiency
improvements reduce domestic energy use per
capita by 25%
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY
INTERIM GOALS
• Maintain net fuel costs to industry at or below world
petroleum prices to maintain economic competitiveness
• Provide established technologies in time to match
hydrocarbon price increases with economic alternatives
• Establish a coherent system of incentives, penalties and
regulations to promote national energy conservation
• Reduce greenhouse emissions ahead of global
reductions to establish leadership in limiting global
warming
• Export established technologies to promote reduction of
global greenhouse gas emissions
• Provide nuclear fuel reprocessing/reactor technology to
other nations to limit opportunities for nuclear weapons
proliferation
• Sustain technology development as world petroleum
prices rise and fall
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
• Are these the right goals?
• Are they realistic in view of the technology
options we have?
• Do we have the political will to carry them
out?
• Will the rest of the world follow our
leadership?
ENERGY POLICY: INCENTIVES
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Oil
Gas
Coal
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Renewables
Geothermal
60% has gone to oil and gas