Henrik Urdal
Senior Researcher, PRIO
Research Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School
A clash of generations? Youth
bulges and political violence
Presentation to the United Nations expert group
meeting on adolescents, youth and development
New York, 21-22 July, 2011
Centre for the Study of Civil War
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Defining armed conflict
•
•
•
•
•
Incompatibility
over government/territory
Defining Internal
Armed Conflict
Armed force
At least two organized parties
One is the government of a state
Minimum 25 battle-related deaths per year
Uppsala/PRIO conflict data (Gleditsch et al., 2002)
Extrasystemic
Interstate
Internationalised intrastate
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
Number of armed conflicts by type, 1946 - 2010
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Intrastate
3
% of adult pop
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
0
2025
0
2020
5
2015
200
2010
10
2005
400
2000
15
1995
600
1990
20
1985
800
1980
25
1975
1000
1970
30
1965
1200
1960
35
1955
1400
1950
Million
World youth population 1950-2050
Year
Source: United Nations Population Division (2011). Youth bulges: % aged 15-24 of adult population (15+)
4
Issue of measurement
10
15
20
25
Age structure by different definitions (2000)
10
20
30
40
Youthbulges of adult population
50
5
Youth bulges in world regions, 2010-2050
6
Youth bulges and political violence
• The opportunity perspective
– Low opportunity cost
– Relative cohort size
– Education
• The grievance perspective
– Unemployment
– Education
– Urbanization
7
General findings
• Large youth bulges increase the risk of smaller conflicts
• Particularly in the context of economic hardship
• Many countries and regions will continue to face significant
demographic challenges
Qualifications:
• No deterministic relationship
• Youth bulges are declining globally
• Youth bulges are also a major resource
– Demographic dividend
– Contingent on human capital, labor market
Urdal, Henrik 2006. ‘A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence’, International Studies
Quarterly 50(3): 607–630.
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Youth, education and conflict
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•
•
•
Education increases economic opportunities
Contingent on the labor market situation
Concerns over rapid expansion
Concerns over relevance, quality
Findings (global study of 120 countries)
• Provision of secondary education reduces conflict
– Conditions the effect of youth bulges
• Rapid expansions in education not generally conflictual
• Gender parity in education beneficial
Source: Barakat, B. & Urdal, H. 2009. ‘Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth
Bulges and Political Violence?’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5114.
9
Demographic dividend – geriatric peace?
• Increases in the working-age population are positively associated
with economic growth
• Lower education and health care expenditures, increased savings
• Early studies did not separate between ‘early-transition’ and
‘window-of-opportunity’ countries
• Dramatic shift in the age structure 1950-2050
• By 2050 only SSA has young adult shares above 25%
• How will these future changes affect conflict risk?
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Youth bulges and support ratio, Iran
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Youth bulges and support ratio, Yemen
12
Demographic dividend – geriatric peace?
Results
• Global study 1950-2007 separated into three pop growth (0-14)
segments
– Early-transition countries: strong youth bulge-conflict effect
– Window of opportunity countries: no effect
• Conflict risk projections:
– Substantial risk reductions in SSA and MENA by 2050
Conclusions, challenges, gaps
• Continued demographic challenges: SSA, MENA, Asia
• Many countries are well sitated for a demographic (peace)
dividend
– Human capital concerns
– Labor market situation
• Expansions in education is taking place on a significant scale
– Relevance, quality (gaps)
• Vast youth unemployment challenges
– Limited monitoring (major data gap)
• Limited systematic knowledge about urban youth
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