Global Employment Trends
for Youth
Steven Kapsos
International Labour Organization
UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on
Adolescents, Youth and Development
New York, 21-22 July 2011
The big picture:
1.
A.
B.
C.
Why focus on youth?
Youth vulnerabilities in the labour market
What we know and what we don’t know
2.
Labour market trends for youth: the pre-crisis
picture
3.
Impact of the global economic crisis on youth
in the labour market
4.
Policy responses




Inefficiencies in youth labour market
(unemployment, discouragement, working
poverty) are costly
Lack of decent work at an early age
compromises future employment prospects
and impacts behaviour
A young person with hopes and options is
happy; take away the options and youth
become angry
Future consumers, producers … societies




Educational deficiencies
Skills/talent mismatch
Lack of work experience, professional contacts,
networks
Precarious employment contracts/dual labour
markets
 Last-in, first-out phenomenon

Barriers to entrepreneurship
What we know . . .
Unemployed
share
decreased from
6.8 to 6.1%
What we do not know . . .
Unemployed
Size of the vulnerable
youth population??
Share of
working
poor 28.1%
Underemployed
?
Employed
Employed
share
decreased from
47.9 to 44.7%
Inactive
share
increased from
45.3 to 49.2%
Shares of
underemployed v. fully
employed in total
employment?
Fully
employed
?
Discouraged
workers
?
Other?
Inactive
In
full-time
education
?
Breakdown of the
inactive by
reason - how
many are in each
category?
25.0
Share of youth in the total population, by region,
WORLD
1991 to 2015
Developed Economies &
European Union
23.0
Central & South-Eastern
Europe (non-EU) & CIS
21.0
East Asia
19.0
South-East Asia & the
Pacific
17.0
South Asia
15.0
Latin America & the
Caribbean
Middle East
13.0
North Africa
11.0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa
European Union
Central & South-Eastern
Europe (non-EU) & CIS
East Asia
South-East Asia & the
Pacific
South Asia
Latin America & the
Caribbean
Middle East
North Africa
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
Youth employment-to-population ratio, by region,
1991 to 2007
Developed Economies &
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa
12.8 12.7 12.8
12.1 12.2 12.2
12.5
76.6
79.6
78.9
78.5
78.0
75.3
73.9
74.3
71.9
71.0
70.8
71.1
12.0
11.5
11.0
66.6
65.9
66.2
70.0
11.3
72.9
11.9
11.1 11.2
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.4
11.7
10.5
Youth unemployment (millions)
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
Youth unemployment rate (%)
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
10.0
1991
Youth unemployment (millions)
13.2 13.2 13.1 13.1
Youth unemployment rate (%)
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Global youth unemployment and unemployment rate,
1991 to 2007
30
Unemployment rate (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Middle East
North Africa
Central & South-East Asia Latin America
South-Eastern & the Pacific
& the
Europe (nonCaribbean
EU) & CIS
Youth, 1998
Youth, 2008
Developed
Economies &
European
Union
Adult, 1998
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Adult, 2008
South Asia
East Asia



Young women tend to have more difficulty
finding work than young men.
In most OECD countries, unemployment is
higher among the lesser educated youth; in
developing countries, it is the highly
educated who face longer job searches.
Unemployment rates are typically higher
among ethnic minorities.
35
30
Unemployment rate (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Middle East
North Africa
Latin America & Central & South- South-East Asia Sub-Saharan
Developed
the Caribbean Eastern Europe & the Pacific
Africa
Economies &
(non-EU) & CIS
European Union
Youth male, 2008
Youth female, 2008
South Asia
East Asia
Share of working poor in total employed (%)
Kazakhstan, 2003
Armenia, 2004
Guatemala, 2000
Peru, 2003
Colombia, 2003
Kenya, 2005
Pakistan, 2004
Philippines, 2003
Bolivia, 2002
Vietnam, 2004
Cameroon, 2001
Bhutan, 2003
Tajikistan, 2003
Ghana, 1998
Cambodia, 2003
Togo, 2006
India, 2004
Benin, 2003
Timor Leste, 2001
Nepal, 2003
Mali, 2006
Congo PR, 2005
Sierra Leone, 2003
Nigeria, 2003
Niger, 2005
Malawi, 2004
Mozambique, 2002
Guinea, 2002
Burundi, 1998
Congo DR, 2005
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Working poverty estimates, youth and adult cohorts
15-24
25+
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
13.0
80.0
13.1
12.7
78.0
78.5
12.0
11.5
74.1
72.9
81.2
80.7
11.9
12.1
72.0
70.0
13.0
12.5
76.0
74.0
13.5
68.0
11.0
2007
2008
2009
Youth unemployment (millions)
p = projection
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
2010p
2011p
Youth unemployment rate (%)
Youth unemployment rate (%)
Youth unemployment (millions)
82.0
Global youth unemployment and unemployment rate,
2007 to 2011
30.0
Youth unemployment rate, by region, 2007 to 2011
Developed Economies &
European Union
Central & South-Eastern
Europe (non-EU) & CIS
25.0
East Asia
20.0
South-East Asia & the Pacific
South Asia
15.0
Latin America & the
Caribbean
Middle East
10.0
North Africa
5.0
Sub-Saharan Africa
2007
2008
p = projection
Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010
2009
2010p
2011p
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
M
F
Spain
M
F
France
M
F
United Kingdom
2007
M = male; F = female
Source: Laborsta
2008
M
F
United States
2009
2010
M
F
Germany
M
F
Ireland
Share of long-term unemployment in total
employment, youth (%)
Youth unemployment rate (%)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
United States
Source: Laborsta


Germany
Spain
United Kingdom
Germany
Spain
United Kingdom
Source: Eurostat
Large increase in youth unemployment rates in Spain; little change in Germany.
But in Germany, nearly one-third of those who are unemployed were already
unemployed for longer than 12 months; only recently the case in Spain and the
UK.
2010Q4
2010Q3
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
2007Q1
2010Q4
2010Q3
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
2007Q1
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Share of temporary employees in total
paid employment, youth (%)
Youth part-time employment rate (%)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
Germany
Source: Eurostat
Spain
United Kingdom
Germany
Spain
United Kingdom
Source: Eurostat
Slight increase in youth part-time employment rates but impact on temporary
employment is less obvious.
 Part-time employment more relevant for UK youth, but incidence of temporary
employment is very low compared to Germany and Spain.

2010Q4
2010Q3
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
0.0
2007Q1
2010Q4
2010Q3
2010Q2
2010Q1
2009Q4
2009Q3
2009Q2
2009Q1
2008Q4
2008Q3
2008Q2
2008Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2007Q2
2007Q1
10.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
Percentage
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Gap between actual and expected youth labour force (share of youth labour force), 2009
Youth unemployment rate, 2009
Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends 2011

Lack of decent work is nothing new for majority of
youth

Dominance of self-employment acts as a buffer,
unemployment rates do not significantly increase …
increase in vulnerable employment and casual
labour in an “increasingly crowded” informal
economy

Secondary consequences on education and training,
pregnancy and parenthood, health

Impacts timing of labour market entry
(“hiding out” in education), the smoothness
of the transition (multiple spells of
unemployment), social norms adopted
(mistrust in the State and economic system)

“Lost generation” ?
Key considerations
 Youth are a heterogeneous group: important to profile
youth for early identification of vulnerabilities
 Multi component interventions, well-focused on specific
needs of youth and the labour market
1. Addressing skills mismatches
 Facilitate access to vocational training
 Entrepreneurship programmes
 Soft and life skills training programmes
 Linking employers with educational institutions
2. Addressing slow job growth barriers
 Active labour market policies
 Public works programmes
 Public service programmes
3. Addressing inadequate job matching
 Employment and intermediation services
4. Addressing poor signalling
 Skills certification systems
5. Supporting strong labour market information systems
Global Employment Trends
for Youth
Steven Kapsos
International Labour Organization
kapsos@ilo.org
UN/DESA Expert Group Meeting on
Adolescents, Youth and Development
New York, 21-22 July 2011