Achieving sustainable
development
R.K. Pachauri
Chairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
ECOSOC
Keynote Address on the theme “achieving
sustainable development”
New York, 30 June 2008
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IPCC
The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
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IPCC
The work of the IPCC is guided by the mandate
given to it by its parent organisations: the World
Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and
transparent basis the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the
scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts
and options for adaptation and mitigation
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IPCC
Writing and review process
of the IPCC assessment reports
1. Experts review the first draft of the report
2. Governments and experts review the second
draft of the report and the draft Summary for
Policymakers
3. Governments review word-by-word the revised
draft Summary for Policymakers
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The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(2007)
+2500 scientific expert reviewers
800 contributing authors
450 lead authors
+130 countries
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Economic and social
aspects of climate change
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IPCC
Ranges for estimated aggregate costs
of climate change impacts
 1.5 to 20% of GDP for doubling of CO2 concentration
 US$-10 to US$+350 per ton of carbon
 Real social cost of carbon will rise by 2 to 4% per year
Variation between studies are explained by uncertainties in
climate sensitivity, discount rates, valuation of impacts, etc.
Aggregate estimates mask significant differences in impacts
across sectors and regions
Aggregate estimates are confronted to the difficulty to
monetise human, social, cultural & environmental impacts
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Examples of climate change impacts
1.1 to 3.2 billion people will experience
increased water scarcity by 2080
Crop revenues could fall by 90%
by 2100 in Africa
20-30% of species could be at risk of
extinction if increases in warming >1.5-2.5°C
These expressions of risk are determined
fundamentally by location in time and space
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Distribution of vulnerability
Year 2050
9 Severe vulnerability
7 Moderate
6 Moderate
5 Modest
4 Modest
3 Little
2 Little
No data
Year 2100
10 Extreme
9 Severe
8 Serious
7 Moderate
6 Moderate
5 Modest
No data
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The urgent need
for mitigation
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Mitigation targets
Global mean
temp. increase
(ºC)
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Year CO2
needs to peak
2.0 – 2.4
445 – 490
2000 – 2015
2.4 – 2.8
490 – 535
2000 – 2020
2.8 – 3.2
535 – 590
2010 – 2030
3.2 – 4.0
590 – 710
2020 – 2060
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Cost & timing of mitigation
Global average costs for stringent mitigation would induce a
slowing of global GDP growth of less than 0.12 points
 Mitigation actions can result co-benefits that may
offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs
Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems,
mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have
medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbonintensive technologies
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Mitigation potential
All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by
deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are
currently available or expected to be commercialised
in coming decades
 This assumes appropriate and effective
incentives are in place for their development
and diffusion
60-80% of GHG reductions would come from
energy supply & use and industrial processes
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IPCC
Investment needs in energy supply
Significantly de-carbonizing power production would require
incremental investments of up to $40 billion/year globally;
$30 billion/year in non-OECD countries1
This would be offset by reduced investment requirements
resulting from improved end-use energy efficiency
A global increased investment of US$2.4 trillion in
improved efficiency would be more than offset by
US$3 trillion savings in supply investments2
Sources: IPCC AR4 citing 1) WB, 2006 2) IEA, 2006
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Perspectives on
sustainable development
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Development & adaptation
Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of
sustainable development share common goals & determinants:
 Access to resources and equity
 Stocks of human and social capital
 Access to risk-sharing mechanisms
 Institutional capacity
Social and environmental issues are often left without effective
support when economic growth takes precedence
Appropriate policies are key factors for improved
sustainability & adaptive capacity
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Development & mitigation
The dominant path to industrialisation has been
characterised by high concurrent GHG emissions and
pressure on natural resources
Committing to alternative development paths requires
major changes in a wide range of areas:




Economic structure
Geographical distribution of activities
Consumption patterns
Demography
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Towards a new system of governance
There is increasing recognition of a shift to a more inclusive
concept of governance, including:
 The cooperation of various levels of
government, the private sector and civil society
 Linking and coherence between policies
addressing climate change, economic
development, health, employment, energy
security, and local environment
Involvement of the relevant parties and policy
coherence are essential to achieve the desired
goals and ensure sustainability
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Lighting a Billion Lives
Campaign
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1.6 billion people lack access to electricity
33% live in India
We commit to enable a billion lives to access
light from solar technologies
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Solar lantern
Each solar lantern:
 Saves about 40-60 litres
of kerosene per year
 Mitigates 145 kg of CO2
emissions per year
Alternately:
 Saves about 182.5 kWhr
of electricity per year
 Mitigates 157 kg of CO2
emissions per year
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Gobindarampur:
a village benefiting from the campaign
Bani and her friends run and
maintain the charging station
Solar lanterns are used in livelihood
activities such as betel leaf cultivation,
coaching centres, and shops
Solar lanterns have helped
families in their daily activities
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Gandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard
Be
the change
of living
as Britain.
He replied:you want to see in the world
It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity.
How many planets will a country like India require!
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