Chapter 13 Complete Block Designs Randomized Block Design (RBD) • g > 2 Treatments (groups) to be compared • r Blocks of homogeneous units are sampled. Blocks can be individual subjects. Blocks are made up of t subunits • Subunits within a block receive one treatment. When subjects are blocks, receive treatments in random order. • Outcome when Treatment i is assigned to Block j is labeled Yij • Effect of Trt i is labeled ai (Typically Fixed) • Effect of Block j is labeled bj (Typically Random) • Random error term is labeled eij • Efficiency gain from removing block-to-block variability from experimental error Randomized Complete Block Designs • Model: Yij a i b j e ij i b j e ij 2 2 a 0 b ~ N 0 , e ~ N 0 , i j b ij g b e i 1 • Test for differences among treatment effects: • H0: a1 ... ag 0 • HA: Not all ai = 0 (1 ... g ) (Not all g are equal) Typically not interested in measuring block effects (although sometimes wish to estimate their variance in the population of blocks). Using Block designs increases efficiency in making inferences on treatment effects RBD - ANOVA F-Test (Normal Data) • Data Structure: (g Treatments, r Subjects (Blocks)) • Mean for Treatment i: y i. • Mean for Subject (Block) j: • Overall Mean: y. j y .. • Overall sample size: N = rg • ANOVA:Treatment, Block, and Error Sums of Squares TSS i 1 j 1 yij y g r SSB g y y SSE y y y SST r i 1 y i y g dfT g 1 2 j j 1 df B r 1 ij i 2 r i 1 j 1 df Total rg 1 2 r g 2 j y TSS SST SSB df E ( r 1)( g 1) RBD - ANOVA F-Test (Normal Data) • ANOVA Table: Source Treatments Blocks Error Total SS SST SSB SSE TSS df g-1 r-1 (r-1)(g-1) rg-1 MS MST = SST/(g-1) MSB = SSB/(r-1) MSE = SSE/[(r-1)(g-1)] •H0: a1 ... ag 0 (1 ... g ) • HA: Not all ai = 0 T .S . : Fobs R.R. : Fobs (Not all i are equal) MST MSE Fa , g 1,( r 1)( g 1) P val : P ( F Fobs ) F F = MST/MSE Pairwise Comparison of Treatment Means • Tukey’s Method- with n = (r-1)(g-1) MSE Wij qa ( g , v) r Conclude i j if y i y j Wij Tukey' s Confidence Interval : y i y j Wij • Bonferroni’s Method - with n = (r-1)(g-1), C=g(g-1)/2 Bij ta / 2,C ,v 2MSE r Conclude i j if y i y j Bij Bonferroni ' s Confidence Interval : y i y j Bij Expected Mean Squares / Relative Efficiency • Expected Mean Squares: As with CRD, the Expected Mean Squares for Treatment and Error are functions of the sample sizes (r, the number of blocks), the true treatment effects (a1,…,ag) and the variance of the random error terms (2) • By assigning all treatments to units within blocks, error variance is (much) smaller for RBD than CRD (which combines block variation&random error into error term) • Relative Efficiency of RBD to CRD (how many times as many replicates would be needed for CRD to have as precise of estimates of treatment means as RBD does): MSECR (r 1) MSB r ( g 1) MSE RE ( RCB , CR) MSE RCB (rg 1) MSE Example - Caffeine and Endurance • • • • Treatments: g=4 Doses of Caffeine: 0, 5, 9, 13 mg Blocks: r=9 Well-conditioned cyclists Response: yij=Minutes to exhaustion for cyclist j @ dose i Data: Dose \ Subject 0 5 9 13 1 36.05 42.47 51.50 37.55 2 52.47 85.15 65.00 59.30 3 56.55 63.20 73.10 79.12 4 45.20 52.10 64.40 58.33 5 35.25 66.20 57.45 70.54 6 66.38 73.25 76.49 69.47 7 40.57 44.50 40.55 46.48 8 57.15 57.17 66.47 66.35 9 28.34 35.05 33.17 36.20 Plot of Y versus Subject by Dose 90.00 80.00 70.00 Time to Exhaustion 60.00 0 mg 50.00 5 mg 9mg 40.00 13 mg 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 Cyclist 6 7 8 9 10 Example - Caffeine and Endurance Subject\Dose 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dose Mean Dose Dev Squared Dev TSS 0mg 36.05 52.47 56.55 45.20 35.25 66.38 40.57 57.15 28.34 46.44 -8.80 77.38 5mg 42.47 85.15 63.20 52.10 66.20 73.25 44.50 57.17 35.05 57.68 2.44 5.95 9mg 51.50 65.00 73.10 64.40 57.45 76.49 40.55 66.47 33.17 58.68 3.44 11.86 13mg 37.55 59.30 79.12 58.33 70.54 69.47 46.48 66.35 36.20 58.15 2.91 8.48 Subj MeanSubj Dev Sqr Dev 41.89 -13.34 178.07 65.48 10.24 104.93 67.99 12.76 162.71 55.01 -0.23 0.05 57.36 2.12 4.51 71.40 16.16 261.17 43.03 -12.21 149.12 61.79 6.55 42.88 33.19 -22.05 486.06 55.24 1389.50 103.68 7752.773 TSS (36.05 55.24) 2 (36.20 55.24) 2 7752.773 dfTotal 4(9) 1 35 SSB 4(41.89 55.24) (33.19 55.24) 4(1389.50) 5558.00 SST 9 (46.44 55.24) 2 (58.15 55.24) 2 9(103.68) 933.12 dfT 4 1 3 2 2 df B 9 1 8 SSE (36.05 41.89 46.44 55.24) 2 (36.20 33.19 58.15 55.24) 2 TSS SST SSB 7752.773 933.12 5558 1261.653 df E (4 1)(9 1) 24 Example - Caffeine and Endurance Source Dose Cyclist Error Total df 3 8 24 35 SS 933.12 5558.00 1261.65 7752.77 MS 311.04 694.75 52.57 H 0 : No Caffeine Dose Effect (a1 a 4 0) H A : Difference s Exist Among Doses MST 311.04 T .S . : Fobs 5.92 MSE 52.57 R.R.(a 0.05) : Fobs F.05,3, 24 3.01 P value : P( F 5.92) .0036 (From EXCEL) Conclude that true means are not all equal F 5.92 Example - Caffeine and Endurance Tukey' s W : q.05, 4, 24 1 3.90 W 3.90 52.57 9.43 9 Bonferroni ' s B : t.05 / 2, 6, 24 Doses 5mg vs 0mg 9mg vs 0mg 13mg vs 0mg 9mg vs 5mg 13mg vs 5mg 13mg vs 9mg 2 2.875 B 2.875 52.57 9.83 9 High Mean 57.6767 58.6811 58.1489 58.6811 58.1489 58.1489 Low Mean Difference Conclude 46.4400 11.2367 5>0 46.4400 12.2411 9>0 46.4400 11.7089 13>0 57.6767 1.0044 NSD 57.6767 0.4722 NSD 58.6811 -0.5322 NSD Example - Caffeine and Endurance Relative Efficiency of Randomized Block to Completely Randomized Design : g 4 r 9 MSB 694.75 MSE 52.57 (r 1) MSB r ( g 1) MSE 8(694.75) 9(3)(52.57) 6977.39 RE ( RCB , CR) 3.79 (rg 1) MSE (9(4) 1)(52.57) 1839.95 Would have needed 3.79 times as many cyclists per dose to have the same precision on the estimates of mean endurance time. • 9(3.79) 35 cyclists per dose • 4(35) = 140 total cyclists Latin Square Design • Design used to compare g treatments when there are two sources of extraneous variation (types of blocks), each observed at g levels • Best suited for analyses when g 10 • Classic Example: Car Tire Comparison – Treatments: 4 Brands of tires (A,B,C,D) – Extraneous Source 1: Car (1,2,3,4) – Extraneous Source 2: Position (Driver Front, Passenger Front, Driver Rear, Passenger Rear) Car\Position 1 2 3 4 DF A B C D PF B C D A DR C D A B PR D A B C Latin Square Design - Model • Model (g treatments, rows, columns, N=g2) : yijk a i b j k e ijk Overall Mean ^ y ^ a i Effect of Treatment i a i y i y bi Effect due to row j ^ b j y j y ^ k Effect due to Column k k y k y e ijk Random Error Term Latin Square Design - ANOVA & F-Test g g Total Sum of Squares : TSS yijk y 2 df g 2 1 j 1 k 1 g Treatment Sum of Squares SST g y i y i 1 g Row Sum of Squares SSR g y j y Column Sum of Squares SSC g y k y k 1 dfT g 1 2 j 1 g 2 df R g 1 2 df C g 1 Error Sum of Squares SSE TSS SST SSR SSC df E ( g 2 1) 3( g 1) ( g 1)( g 2) • H0: a1 = … = ag = 0 Ha: Not all ai = 0 • TS: Fobs = MST/MSE = (SST/(g-1))/(SSE/((g-1)(g-2))) • RR: Fobs Fa, g-1, (g-1)(g-2) Pairwise Comparison of Treatment Means • Tukey’s Method- with n = (g-1)(g-2) Wij qa ( g , v) MSE g Conclude i j if y i y j Wij Tukey' s Confidence Interval : y i y j Wij • Bonferroni’s Method - with n = (g-1)(g-2), C=g(g-1)/2 Bij ta / 2,C ,v 2MSE g Conclude i j if y i y j Bij Bonferroni ' s Confidence Interval : y i y j Bij Expected Mean Squares / Relative Efficiency • Expected Mean Squares: As with CRD, the Expected Mean Squares for Treatment and Error are functions of the sample sizes (g, the number of blocks), the true treatment effects (a1,…,ag) and the variance of the random error terms (2) • By assigning all treatments to units within blocks, error variance is (much) smaller for LS than CRD (which combines block variation&random error into error term) • Relative Efficiency of LS to CRD (how many times as many replicates would be needed for CRD to have as precise of estimates of treatment means as LS does): MSECR MSR MSC ( g 1) MSE RE ( LS , CR) MSE LS ( g 1) MSE Replicated Latin Squares • To Increase Power (and Error degrees of freedom), experimenters often will use multiple (m>1) gxg latin squares for their design. There are 3 possible model structures: • Model 1: Separate Row and Column blocks used in each square • Model 2: Common Row, but separate Column blocks used in each square • Model 3: Common Row and Column blocks used in each square Model 1 – Separate Row and Column Blocks yilkl a i b j (l ) k (l ) l e ijkl Square1 Row(1) … Row(g) Col(1) … Col(g) ANOVA Source Treatments Rows Columns Squares Error Total Square2 Col(g+1) Row(g+1) … Row(2g) i 1,..., g ; j 1,..., g ; k 1,..., g ; l 1,..., m … Col(2g) … … … … Square m Col((m-1)g+1) Row((m-1)g+1) … Row(mg) df g-1 m(g-1) m(g-1) m-1 (mg-m-1)(g-1) mgg-1 … Col(mg) Model 2 – Common Row, Separate Column Blocks yilkl a i b j k (l ) l e ijkl Square1 Row(1) … Row(g) Col(1) … Col(g) ANOVA Source Treatments Rows Columns Squares Error Total Square2 Col(g+1) Row(1) … Row(g) i 1,..., g ; j 1,..., g ; k 1,..., g ; l 1,..., m … Col(2g) … … … … df g-1 g-1 m(g-1) m-1 (mg-2)(g-1) mgg-1 Square m Row(1) … Row(g) Col((m-1)g+1) … Col(mg) Model 3 – Common Row and Column Blocks yilkl a i b j k l e ijkl Square1 Row(1) … Row(g) Col(1) … Col(g) ANOVA Source Treatments Rows Columns Squares Error Total Square2 Row(1) … Row(g) Col(1) i 1,..., g ; j 1,..., g ; k 1,..., g ; l 1,..., m … Col(g) … … … … df g-1 g-1 g-1 m-1 (mg+m-3)(g-1) mgg-1 Square m Row(1) … Row(g) Col(1) … Col(g) Designs Balanced for Carry-Over Effects • Subjects receive g treatments, one in each of g time periods • Treatments are balanced with equal number of replicates per time period (across subjects) • Design balanced such that each treatment follows each other treatment equal number of times and appears in the first position equal number of times. • Carryover effect that observation in Period 1 receives is 0 yijkl a i b j k l e ijkl a i Direct of effect of Trt i b j Carry - Over Effect whe n Trt j was in period l 1 k Effect of Subject k l Effect of Period l Example 13.12 – Milk Yield Period\Cow 1 2 3 Period\Cow 1 2 3 Period\Cow 1 2 3 1 A B C 7 A B C 13 A B C 2 B C A 8 B C A 14 B C A 3 C A B 9 C A B 15 C A B 4 A C B 10 A C B 16 A C B 5 B A C 11 B A C 17 B A C 6 C B A 12 C B A 18 C B A Example 13.2 – Factor/Carryover Coding Cow 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 Period 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Trt 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 2 Trt1 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 -1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 -1 1 0 Trt2 0 1 -1 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 Res1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 Res2 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 Cow 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 18 Period 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Trt 1 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 3 3 2 1 Trt1 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 1 -1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 1 Trt2 0 -1 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 1 0 -1 -1 1 0 Res1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 Res2 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 1 Note: Trt1,Trt2 and Res1,Res2 are coded so thatTrt and Res Effects sum to Zero (“Trt3 = -Trt1-Trt2” and “Res3 = -Res1-Res2”, with no Res effects in Period 1)