Randomized Block Design Caffeine and Endurance in 9 Bicyclists W.J. Pasman, et al. (1995). “The Effect of Different Dosages of Caffeine on Endurance Performance Time,” International Journal of Sports Medicine, Vol. 16, pp225-230 Randomized Block Design (RBD) • t > 2 Treatments (groups) to be compared • b Blocks of homogeneous units are sampled. Blocks can be individual subjects. Blocks are made up of t subunits • Subunits within a block receive one treatment. When subjects are blocks, receive treatments in random order. • Outcome when Treatment i is assigned to Block j is labeled Yij • Effect of Trt i is labeled ai • Effect of Block j is labeled bj • Random error term is labeled eij • Efficiency gain from removing block-to-block variability from experimental error Randomized Complete Block Designs • Model (Block effects and random errors independent): Yij a i b j e ij i b j e ij t a i 1 i 0 b j ~ N 0, 2 b e ij ~ N 0, 2 e • Test for differences among treatment effects: • H0: a1 ... at 0 • HA: Not all ai = 0 (1 ... t ) (Not all i are equal) Typically not interested in measuring block effects (although sometimes wish to estimate their variance in the population of blocks). Using Block designs increases efficiency in making inferences on treatment effects RBD - ANOVA F-Test (Normal Data) • Data Structure: (t Treatments, b Subjects/Blocks) • Mean for Treatment i: y i. • Mean for Subject (Block) j: • Overall Mean: y. j y .. • Overall sample size: N = bt • ANOVA:Treatment, Block, and Error Sums of Squares TSS i 1 j 1 yij y .. t b SSB t y SSE y 2 df Total bt 1 y SST bi 1 y i . y .. 2 df T t 1 b 2 df B b 1 t j 1 .j .. 2 ij y i. y . j y .. TSS SST SSB df E (b 1)(t 1) RBD - ANOVA F-Test (Normal Data) • ANOVA Table: Source Treatments Blocks Error Total SS SST SSB SSE TSS df t-1 b-1 (b-1)(t-1) bt-1 MS MST = SST/(t-1) MSB = SSB/(b-1) MSE = SSE/[(b-1)(t-1)] •H0: a1 ... at 0 (1 ... t ) • HA: Not all ai = 0 T .S . : Fobs R.R. : Fobs (Not all i are equal) MST MSE Fa ,t 1,( b 1)( t 1) P val : P ( F Fobs ) F F = MST/MSE Comparing Treatment Means b 1 b 1 y i. yij b a i b j e ij b j 1 j 1 Mean for Treatment i : b b b b ba i b j e ij j 1 j 1 b b 1 Mean for Treatment i ': y i '. b b ba i ' b j e i ' j j 1 j 1 Difference in Means : 1 y i. y i '. a i a i ' e i. e i '. E e i. E e i '. 0 V e i. V e i '. E y i. y i '. a i a i ' e2 b V y i. y i '. COV e i. , e i '. 0 2 e2 b ^ V y i. y i '. 2MSE b Pairwise Comparison of Treatment Means • Tukey’s Method- q from Studentized Range Distribution with n = (b-1)(t-1) MSE Wij qa (t , v) b Conclude i j if y i. y j . Wij Tukey' s Confidence Interval : y i. y j . Wij • Bonferroni’s Method - t-values from table on class website with n = (b-1)(t-1) and C=t(t-1)/2 Bij ta / 2,C ,v 2 MSE b Conclude i j if y i. y j . Bij Bonferroni ' s Confidence Interval : y i. y j . Bij Expected Mean Squares / Relative Efficiency • Expected Mean Squares: As with CRD, the Expected Mean Squares for Treatment and Error are functions of the sample sizes (b, the number of blocks), the true treatment effects (a1,…,at) and the variance of the random error terms (2) • By assigning all treatments to units within blocks, error variance is (much) smaller for RBD than CRD (which combines block variation&random error into error term) • Relative Efficiency of RBD to CRD (how many times as many replicates would be needed for CRD to have as precise of estimates of treatment means as RBD does): MSECR (b 1) MSB b(t 1) MSE RE ( RCB , CR) MSE RCB (bt 1) MSE Example - Caffeine and Endurance • • • • Treatments: t=4 Doses of Caffeine: 0, 5, 9, 13 mg Blocks: b=9 Well-conditioned cyclists Response: yij=Minutes to exhaustion for cyclist j @ dose i Data: Dose \ Subject 0 5 9 13 1 36.05 42.47 51.50 37.55 2 52.47 85.15 65.00 59.30 3 56.55 63.20 73.10 79.12 4 45.20 52.10 64.40 58.33 5 35.25 66.20 57.45 70.54 6 66.38 73.25 76.49 69.47 7 40.57 44.50 40.55 46.48 8 57.15 57.17 66.47 66.35 9 28.34 35.05 33.17 36.20 Plot of Y versus Subject by Dose 90.00 80.00 70.00 Time to Exhaustion 60.00 50.00 0 mg 5 mg 9mg 40.00 13 mg 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 Cyclist 6 7 8 9 10 Example - Caffeine and Endurance Subject\Dose 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dose Mean Dose Dev Squared Dev TSS 0mg 36.05 52.47 56.55 45.20 35.25 66.38 40.57 57.15 28.34 46.44 -8.80 77.38 5mg 42.47 85.15 63.20 52.10 66.20 73.25 44.50 57.17 35.05 57.68 2.44 5.95 9mg 51.50 65.00 73.10 64.40 57.45 76.49 40.55 66.47 33.17 58.68 3.44 11.86 13mg 37.55 59.30 79.12 58.33 70.54 69.47 46.48 66.35 36.20 58.15 2.91 8.48 Subj MeanSubj Dev Sqr Dev 41.89 -13.34 178.07 65.48 10.24 104.93 67.99 12.76 162.71 55.01 -0.23 0.05 57.36 2.12 4.51 71.40 16.16 261.17 43.03 -12.21 149.12 61.79 6.55 42.88 33.19 -22.05 486.06 55.24 1389.50 103.68 7752.773 TSS (36.05 55.24) 2 (36.20 55.24) 2 7752.773 dfTotal 4(9) 1 35 SSB 4(41.89 55.24) (33.19 55.24) 4(1389.50) 5558.00 SST 9 (46.44 55.24) 2 (58.15 55.24) 2 9(103.68) 933.12 dfT 4 1 3 2 2 df B 9 1 8 SSE (36.05 41.89 46.44 55.24) 2 (36.20 33.19 58.15 55.24) 2 TSS SST SSB 7752.773 933.12 5558 1261.653 df E (4 1)(9 1) 24 Example - Caffeine and Endurance Source Dose Cyclist Error Total df 3 8 24 35 SS 933.12 5558.00 1261.65 7752.77 MS 311.04 694.75 52.57 H 0 : No Caffeine Dose Effect (a1 a 4 0) H A : Difference s Exist Among Doses MST 311.04 T .S . : Fobs 5.92 MSE 52.57 R.R.(a 0.05) : Fobs F.05,3, 24 3.01 P value : P( F 5.92) .0036 (From EXCEL) Conclude that true means are not all equal F 5.92 Example - Caffeine and Endurance Tukey' s W : q.05, 4, 24 1 3.90 W 3.90 52.57 9.43 9 Bonferroni ' s B : t.05 / 2, 6, 24 Doses 5mg vs 0mg 9mg vs 0mg 13mg vs 0mg 9mg vs 5mg 13mg vs 5mg 13mg vs 9mg 2 2.875 B 2.875 52.57 9.83 9 High Mean 57.6767 58.6811 58.1489 58.6811 58.1489 58.1489 Low Mean Difference Conclude 46.4400 11.2367 5>0 46.4400 12.2411 9>0 46.4400 11.7089 13>0 57.6767 1.0044 NSD 57.6767 0.4722 NSD 58.6811 -0.5322 NSD Example - Caffeine and Endurance Relative Efficiency of Randomized Block to Completely Randomized Design : t 4 b 9 MSB 694.75 MSE 52.57 (b 1) MSB b(t 1) MSE 8(694.75) 9(3)(52.57) 6977.39 RE ( RCB , CR) 3.79 (bt 1) MSE (9(4) 1)(52.57) 1839.95 Would have needed 3.79 times as many cyclists per dose to have the same precision on the estimates of mean endurance time. • 9(3.79) 35 cyclists per dose • 4(35) = 140 total cyclists RBD -- Non-Normal Data Friedman’s Test • When data are non-normal, test is based on ranks • Procedure to obtain test statistic: – Rank the k treatments within each block (1=smallest, k=largest) adjusting for ties – Compute rank sums for treatments (Ti) across blocks – H0: The k populations are identical (1=...=k) – HA: Differences exist among the k group means 12 k 2 T .S . : Fr T 3b(k 1) i 1 i bk (k 1) R.R. : Fr a2 ,k 1 P val : P( 2 Fr ) Example - Caffeine and Endurance Subject\Dose 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0mg 36.05 52.47 56.55 45.2 35.25 66.38 40.57 57.15 28.34 5mg 42.47 85.15 63.2 52.1 66.2 73.25 44.5 57.17 35.05 9mg 51.5 65 73.1 64.4 57.45 76.49 40.55 66.47 33.17 13mg 37.55 59.3 79.12 58.33 70.54 69.47 46.48 66.35 36.2 Ranks Total 0mg 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 10 5mg 3 4 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 25 9mg 4 3 3 4 2 4 1 4 2 27 13mg 2 2 4 3 4 2 4 3 4 28 H 0 : No Dose Difference s H a : Dose Difference s Exist 12 26856 2 2 T .S . : Fr (10) (28) 3(9)( 4 1) 135 14.2 9(4)( 4 1) 180 R.R.(a 0.05) : Fr .205, 41 7.815 P - value : P( 2 14.2) .0026 (From EXCEL) Conclude Means (Medians) are not all equal