QMB 3250 Summer 2004 Instructor: Dr. Larry Winner Office: 125G Bryan Hall Phone: 392-0161 x-1230 (Marketing Department Office) 392-0161 x-1273 (During office hours only) Office Hours: M 1:00-3:00PM W 11:30AM-1:30PM Other times by appointment E-mail qmb3250.prof@cba.ufl.edu Teaching Assistants Offices & Hours Students who will provide teaching assistance will be located in 125B Bryan Hall (office hours will be announced during first week of classes). The TA's that hold office hours are here to provide assistance with material covered in the course, as well as administrative problems, questions involving grading, and use of computer software. They have taken this course recently and are knowledgeable in the material covered, so take advantage of their availability. Office hours are to provide students with assistance on specific questions and are not intended to provide instruction that is provided in lectures. Do not expect to have TA’s “teach you” entire sections/chapters of material that has been covered in lecture. The TA office hours will begin May 14 and run through August 5. No office hours will be held during the Summer Break or on University holidays. Office hours are not an alternative to attending/viewing lectures!!! Course Objectives This course reviews and extends the statistical methods encountered in introductory statistical courses (e.g. STA 2023). The methods are those that are frequently used in making business decisions. The emphasis is on application of statistical methods and interpretation of the results. The abilities to memorize formulae and “plug and chug” numbers are of little practical use and play a minor role in the grading of this course. As computers are widely use in applied statistics, we will occasionally make use of the WINDOWS based software package EXCEL. All directions in its use are provided in the textbook, so you will not need to write computer programs. Course Materials Keller and Warrack, Statistics For Management and Economics, 6th Ed.}, Pacific Grove, CA: Brooks/Cole Thomson Learning.,2003. Supplemental Materials (available at University Copy Center, 1620 W. University Avenue) 1) Course Notes (will also available on class website) 2) Old exams (not available on website) Assignments Suggested problems are listed by section in the syllabus. These assignments will not be handed in for a grade, but will be helpful in understanding the material and preparing for exams. The more problems you solve, the more familiar the material will be when you take the exam. Tentative Class Sessions Live: Periods 6-7 Replay: Period E1-2 (3:30-6:15PM) MW in BRY 130 (7:00PM-9:45PM) MW in MAT 14 Cox Cable Replay: (7:00-9:45PM) MW on Cox Cable Internet: Anytime after live lecture Holidays/Off Days Monday May 31 M-F June 21-25 (Memorial Day) (Summer Break) Tentative Examination Dates (On Campus) Exam 1, Thursday, June 3 (7:00PM-9:00PM) @ Carlton Auditorium Exam 2, Thursday, July 8 (7:00PM-9:00PM) @ Carlton Auditorium Final Exam,Tuesday, Aug 3 (7:00-9:00PM) @ Carlton Auditorium Examination Policies Content: Three exams (dates and times above) will be given in this course. They will cover material presented in lecture, and in the course text. Exam topics will be announced in lecture at least one week prior to the exam date. The final exam will be cumulative, with specific topics given prior to the exam. In the supplementary course packets, I have enclosed exams from previous semesters. The exams will may or may not look like these in format, but will not include any duplicates of those questions, and will be representative of material covered in lecture which may or may not be the same as was covered before. Timing of material may differ, so that current exams may not cover even remotely the same material as the old exams. Students who learn statistics by focusing only on old exams as opposed to working assigned problems and keeping up with material covered in lecture are doomed to failure. All tests are CLOSED--book: you will be given a formula sheet that is contained in your course notes and all necessary tables. You may not share calculators during exams. Make--up exams: No make--up exams will be given in this course. Students may drop one of their midterm exams, however, the exams will be re-weighted to reflect a higher weight on the final exam (which is cumulative). As the final exam will be cumulative, you will not be permitted to drop your score on the final exam, regardless of how well you have performed on prior exams. If an exam in this course conflicts with one of your tests in another course or with a regularly scheduled class meeting, you MAY be permitted to take a make—up exam, provided I am notified of the conflict well in advance of the test date and the conflict meets certain conditions prescribed by the Registrar's Office and the College of Business Administration. Exam Administration: Exams on the University of Florida campus will be in Carlton Auditorium. You will need to bring a photo ID, several #2 pencils, a pen, and a calculator for each exam. The exam proctors will be instructed to not grade exams belonging to students who fail to produce a picture ID at the test site. To make the testing process as fair as possible, proctors are instructed not to answer any questions concerning exam content. They will be able to answer administrative questions only. Honesty Statement: While most students are honest people, some feel the necessity to push the limits of the system. If you are observed cheating on an exam, you will be reported to the Student Honor Court, and will have the test score invalidated. Appeals: If you believe that there is a problem with one or more questions on an exam, you may submit a written request to review your concern(s). Your request should be legible, include your name student ID number, and a clear/concise statement of objection(s), and provide an improved version of question. Your appeal should be e-mailed. Very few appeals are granted unless it was an error by instructor in bubbling in solution key. No verbal discussions will be made concerning this matter, and it's very unlikely that any appeal will be rewarded (unless there is some sort of typographical/wording error on exam or answer key). Check your notes and course materials before appealing any unappealable questions. No late appeals will be reviewed. Grading Procedure There are only two options for your final grade, both will be computed and your best grade will be given: Option 1 – All 3 exams (Exam 1 = 40%, Exam 2= 40%, Final=20%) Option 2 – Drop a Midterm (Exam 1 or 2 = 50%, Final Exam = 50%) There will be an opportunity to collect up to ? (on the scale of 200) extra credit points by participating in experiments in the marketing behavior lab. The number of potential points and the policies will be announced in class. No experiments can be interchanged between this and any other course, and no points will be given after the deadline, which is Friday, July 30. There will be no discussions of final grades in the class (unless there has been a technical mistake in the scoring). All grade cutoffs are final and there is no opportunity for extra credit after the fact. This ensures a fair system for all students. If you need a certain grade in this course to graduate or keep eligibility, then EARN it. Tips for Success in QMB 3250 I work hard to make statistics as accessible and interesting as possible for students. I have taught a wide variety of statistics courses at UF, and have gained many insights into making the subject as understandable as possible. However, statistics, like many other quantitative courses, is not a spectator sport, and students need to take the initiative to learn the material. I expect you to do the following: 1) Attend or view all class sessions. 1a) View lectures multiple times. Repetition is very helpful. 2) Carefully read all assigned textbook sections and course notes. 3) Work out all suggested problems and questions posed in class. 4) Use practice exams only after learning course material (as only then will you know what are relevant questions). 5) Take advantage of TA office hours for questions concerning the material. Warning: the longer you wait prior to an exam, the less attention you will receive (Supply/Demand). If the TAs cannot provide the necessary solutions/answers, contact me as soon as possible. 6) Keep up with the material. If you fall behind, you may find the material will become overwhelming. 7) Keep in mind that the material covered changes from semester to semester. Exams may look nothing like old exams. 8) Your instructors have great respect for you, you should hold the same level of respect for your instructors. Make the most of this opportunity to learn statistics. You will be making use of these concepts regardless of what career path you may take. Good Luck! Course Outline The following topics will be covered in the order indicated. You are expected to read the assigned sections in the Black text (referred to by Lecture # in the course notes). I reserve the right to add problems throughout the semester. This is an approximate timeline. Examples from the notes, recent relevant cases, and weekly reviews will be covered in the Thursday lectures. Due to updating of course, I can best describe weekly topics. Readings and problems will be posted in subsequent files. QMB 3250 - Summer 2004 Detailed Tentative Course Outline NOTE: * Means it's an EXCEL based problem, and available on class website Text book problems are referenced only by problem #, not chapter #. Old Exam problems are referenced by Page # . Problem # Week 1: Text Book Sections: 1.1, 1.2, Chapter 2, 4.1, 4.2, 4.3. 4.5 Course Notes: Pages 1-29 Text Book Problems: Chapter 1: 3, 4 Chapter 2: 2, 3, 6, 23*, 24*, 32* Chapter 4: 2, 4, 12*, 14*, 16*, 18*, 20, 22, 32*, 34*, 36*, 56, 58, 62*, 68*, 70* Old Exam Problems: Chapter 1: 3.3, 5.11 Chapter 2: 10.1, 12.10, 19.12, 20.19, 39.20, 45.21, 46.22, 45.19, 71.7, 207.13 Chapter 4: 10.2, 14.18, 17.1-3, 22.1-3, 22.5, 29.1-2, 33.22-23, 34.4-6, 38.19, 40.1-3, 46.24, 98.4, 104.1, 108.22, 110.2, 134.21, 140.22, 141.23-25, 142.1-3, 143.4, 205.3, 207.10-12, 208.14-16 Week 2: Text Book Sections: Chapter 5, Chapter 6, 7.1-7.5, Chapter 23 (pp 784-787,790 & Notes) Course Notes: Pages 30-57. Text Book Problems: Chapter 5: 2, 4, 6, 8, 14, 16 Chapter 6: 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 34, 36, 40, 42, 44, 46, 56, 62, 64, 66, 76. 80, 82 Chapter 7: 8, 10, 12, 18, 20, 22, 36, 38, 40, 42, 52, 54, 56 Chapter 23: 14, 16, 30, 32 Old Exam Problems: Chapter 5: None Chapter 6: 3.4, 13.13-14, 21.25, 22.4, 24.10, 25.15, 31.13, 32.17-18, 34.1-3, 39.21-22, 43.12, 44.17-19, 189.4-6, 210.23 Chapter 7: 8.23,13.11-12, 20.18, 30.6-7, 33.22, 35.7-9, 37.13-15, 43.11, 43,14, 45.20, 195.1-2, 197.11-12, 206.7-9, 210.21-22, 233.10-11, 234.12, Chapter 23: 36.10-12, 38.16-18, 41.4-6, 42.7-10, 196.7-8, 205.5-6, 206.7, 209.17-20 Week 3: Text Book Sections: 8.3, 8.5, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4 (and Notes) Course Notes: Pages 58-66. Text Book Problems: Chapter 8: 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 34, 40, 42, 48, 54, 60, 68 Chapter 9: 16, 18, 20, 36, 38, 40, 42, 48, 52, 54 Old Exam Problems: Chapter 8: 4.5, 6.16, 9.25, 15.19-20, 17.4-5, 20.19, 23.9, 29.3-4, 43.13, 44.15, 95.17, 205.1-4 Chapter 9: 4.7, 5.9, 5.12, 6.15, 16.24-25, 17.6, 26.19-20, 29.5, 30.8-9, 33.5, 44.16, 46.25, 95.18-19, 210.24-25 Week 4: Text Book Sections: 13.1, 2, 3, 6 Course Notes: Pages 67-80. Text Book Problems: Section 13.2: 2, 4, 6, 8, 14, 18, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 46, 48, 50, 52 Section 13.6: 94, 104, 106, 108, 110, 112, 114 Old Exam Problems: 11.5-7, 12.9-10, 14.15-16, 15.22-23, 18.8-11, 19.13-14, 21.22, 21.24, 22.6-8, 24.11, 25.16-18, 27.22-23, 30.10, 31.11-12, 31.14-15, 32.16, 33.24,25, 49.9-10, 50.11, 53.23, 54.2, 74.19, 88.18-19, 91.4-6, 92.8-9, 93.10-12, 94.13-16, 96.23-25, 100.14-15, 103:23-25, 179.18, 180.21, 181.23, 192.16-18, 216.1-4 EXAM 1 – June 3, 2004 Week 5: Text Book Sections: 15.1, 2, 7 Course Notes: Pages 81-91. Text Book Problems: Section 15.2: 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, Section 15.7: 54, 62, 66 (Bonferroni), Apply Method to Section 15.2 probs Old Exam Problems: 47.2-3, 48.5, 48.7, 49.8, 50.12-13, 51.16-17, 52.18-20, 53.24-25, 54.2, 54.4, 55.5-8, 56.9-11, 57.12-13, 58.15-17, 61.26, 62.1-2, 63.4-6, 66.16, 67.17, 68.20-23, 70.6, 71.8-10, 72.11-13, 73.15-17, 75.22-25, 76.1-4, 77.5-8, 78.10-12, 79.13-14, 81.21-23, 82.24-25, 83.1-4, 84.5-6, 87.13-15, 88.16-17, 88.20, 89.24-25, 95.20-23, 97.2-3, 101.16, 101.18-19, 181.24, 193.19-21, 199.15-16, 200.21-22, 218.10, 219.11, 220.17, 221.18, 223.24-25, 232.6-7 Week 6: Text Book Sections: 16.3 Course Notes: Pages 92-94. Text Book Problems: Section 16.3: 18, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32 Old Exam Problems: 217.6-7, 219.13, 220.14, Break Week Week 7: Text Book Sections: 18.1-18.5 Course Notes: Sections 1-2 Text Book Problems: Chapter 18: 1,4,6,8,10,12,18,20,22,24,26,28 Old Exam Problems: 98.4-5,99.10,100.11,101.17,102.20-22,104.1-5, 105.6-8,106.9,106.11,106.13,108.20,109.23-25, 110.1-2,111.4-7,112.8-12,113.13-15,114.18-20, 115.21,115.23,117,1-5,118.6-8,119.10-11,121.19-21, 122.26,123.1-5,124.6-8,125.13-14,126.15-17,127.19-25, 128.2,129.3-5,130.6-8,131.9-10,132.15-16,133.18-20, 134.21-25,135.1,135.4,136.5-8,137.9-11,139.16, 139.18-19,140.20-21,141.23-25,142.1-3,143.4-5,144.7-8, 145.11-13,146.14-18,148.23-25,175.4,190.11, 216.5, 218.8-9, 219.12, 220.15-16, 221.19-21, 222.22-23 Week 8: Text Book Sections: 18.7-18.8 Course Notes: Sections 3-4. (Section 4 is a new topic) Text Book Problems: Chapter 18: 48,51,53,57,59,60,62,65,67,71,84,86,88,96 Old Exam Problems: 97.1,98,6,100.12,106,10,106.12,108.19,108.21-22,109.26, 110.3,113.16,114.17,115.22,116.24-26,119.12-14,121.22, 122.25,124.9-10,125.11-12,126.18,128.1,131.11-14,132.17, 135.2-3,137.12,139.17,140.22,143.6,144.9-10, 232.8, 237.22-24, 236.19-20 Exam 2 – July 8, 2004 Week 9: Text Book Sections: 19.1-19.5 Course Notes: Section 5 Text Book Problems: Chapter 19: 2,6,8,10,26,28,32,34,36 Old Exam Problems: 118.9,120.15-18,138.13-15,147.19-22,149.1-5,150.6-9, 151.10-13,152.14-15,153.17-18,155.1-3,156.6-7,156.9, 157.10-12,158.13-15,159.18,163.1-4,164.8,165.10-14, 166.6,169.1-3,170.7,171.11-13,172.14-17,175.1-3,178.12-14, 180.19-20,182.4-5,183.6-9,184.10-11,187.20-21,190.10, 190.12,191.13-15,193.22,196.6,198.13-14,199.17, 200.18-20,201.23-25, 230.1-3, 235.16-18, 237.25 Week 10: Text Book Sections: 20.1-20.3,21.1-21.3 (21.1-21.3 are new topics) Course Notes: Sections 6,7.1,7.2. (7.1 and 7.2 are new topics) Text Book Problems: Chapter 20:2,4,8,10,12,16,18,22. Chapter 21:2,4,8,10 Old Exam Problems: 159.16-17,164.9,166.17-18,170.8-10,176.8,177.9-10, 179.15-17,184.12,185.13-16,186.17-19,194.23-25,197.9-10, 231.5, 233.9 Week 11: Text Book Sections: 21.4-21.6 (21.4 and some of 21.6 are new topics) Course Notes: Sections 7.3-7.6.1 (7.3 and 7.6 are new topics). Text Book Problems: Chapter 21:18,20,24,26,28,30,32,34,36,40 Old Exam Problems: 152.16,155.4-5,156.8,164.5-7,166.15,169.4-6, 176.5-9,182.1-3,189.1-3,195.1-3, 231.4, 234.12-15, 236.21 Week 12: Review and Final Exam Exam 3 – August 3, 2004