Chief Justice John Roberts
and the future of the U.S. Supreme Court
Friends of the Northern Illinois
University Libraries Speaker Series,
DeKalb, IL, January 17, 2006.
Artemus Ward
Assistant Professor
Department of Political Science
Northern Illinois University
Ideology and the Rehnquist Court
(1986-2005)
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
L --------------------------------------I-------------------------------------- R
Brennan (D)
Stevens (R)
Marshall (D) Souter (R)
Blackmun (R)
Ginsburg (D)
Breyer (D)
O’Connor (R) Rehnquist (R)
Kennedy(R)
Scalia (R)
Thomas (R)
The Politics of Departure:
The O’Connor and Rehnquist Debacle

Rehnquist knew he was dying
but failed to communicate with
O’Connor about staying on the
bench. When he failed to retire
at the end of the term in June,
she retired. Why? The rule of
8: The justices work to ensure
there is only one vacancy at a
time (particularly over the
summer) to keep the Court as
an institution as strong as
possible.
The Politics of Departure:
The O’Connor and Rehnquist Debacle

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Bush nominated Roberts to
replace O’Connor, fully
expecting to elevate him to
Chief Justice the following year
or next when Rehnquist would
step down. He would then fill
Roberts seat (2 for 1).
Rehnquist’s death hastened
the Bush plan, Roberts was
nominated for Chief and
O’Connor was forced to remain
on the Court.
John Roberts, Jr.: The Heir Apparent
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Editor, Harvard Law
Review
Law Clerk to Justice
Rehnquist
Legal positions in Regan
and Bush I Administrations
Private Practice at Hogan
& Hartson. Experienced
Supreme Court Advocate
Bush II appointed him
Judge, U.S. Court of
Appeals, DC Circuit (20032005).
Chief Justice John Roberts, Jr.

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Age: 50—youngest
Chief since John
Marshall, age 45, 1801.
First new member of
the Court in over 11
years—longest stretch
since 1823!
Lower court opinions
suggest a conservative
judicial minimalist,
deferential to executive
authority.
Harriet Miers: The Crony
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Selected for two reasons:
Gender and deferential to
executive authority.
Failed because organized
evangelicals saw her as at
best a judicial moderate.
She was unable to
demonstrate constitutional
acumen and strong
convictions.
Nomination was hurting an
increasingly weakened Bush
Administration.
Samuel Alito, Jr.: Old No.3 Club
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Editor, Yale Law Journal.
Court of Appeals Law
Clerk.
Legal positions in Reagan
Administration.
Experienced Supreme
Court Advocate as Asst.
Solicitor General.
Bush I appointed him
Judge, U.S. Court of
Appeals (1990-present).
Justice Alito
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Age 54
Like Justice Kennedy
and former Justice
Blackmun, Alito is the
latest member of the
“Old No.3 Club.”
Lower Court
decisions suggest a
solid conservative.
Ideology and the Roberts Court (2005—)
Liberal
Moderate
Conservative
L --------------------------------------I-------------------------------------- R
Brennan (D)
Stevens (R)
Marshall (D) Souter (R)
Blackmun (R)
Ginsburg (D)
Breyer (D)
Roberts (R) Alito (R)
Kennedy(R)
Scalia (R)
Thomas (R)
Conclusion

The 2008 Presidential election will be decisive
for the future of the Roberts Court with Justice
Stevens (4/20/20) and possibly Justice
Ginsburg (3/15/33) departing before the 2012
election.