NRC Perspective on NGA-East Project

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NRC Perspective on
NGA-East Project
NGA-East Stakeholder Workshop
Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E.
1
NRC Needs
• Increased accuracy of PSHA in CEUS
• Properly capturing and understanding
uncertainty
– Separating and capturing aleatory variability
and epistemic uncertainty
• Increased buy-in from seismic community
• Improved regulatory stability
2
Project Motivation
• Ground Motion Prediction Equations
(GMPSs) are generally the single largest
source of uncertainty in seismic hazard
evaluations
• NGA (west) project reduced discrepancies
between relationships
3
Project Motivation
• Clear benefits to framework used in NGA
– Common and transparent data base
and assumptions
– Broad buy-in from seismic community
• The state of ground motion prediction in
the CEUS is much less certain than in
the WUS
– The need for a structured process is
even more acute
4
NRC Constraints
• Due to nuclear renaissance, today’s
NRC is highly product, schedule, and
budget oriented
• Several additional NRC research
projects need results from NGA-East
as input
• Critical that project remains on time
and on budget
5
Motivation for
Development Project
• To develop scope, schedule and cost
– Provide NRC understanding of program
resource needs and outcomes
– Facilitate participation by others
• Collect and incorporate stakeholder input to
develop broad-based support for ultimate
product
• Develop cooperative management and
funding agreements with other stakeholders
6
Keys for Success
• Strive to define critical technical issues
and research needs early
• Establish priorities and develop technical
framework
• Ensure that appropriate researchers are
included
• Develop cooperative managerial
framework with other stakeholders
• Develop realistic schedule and budget
• No expectation of pro-bono work
7
Summary
• Improved ground motion prediction
equations needed for CEUS
• NGA program provided framework with
high probability of success
• Initiated development program to define
scope, schedule and cost of NGA-East
• Develop cooperative funding arrangement
with stakeholder agencies
8
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