A Vision for our Energy Future
UH GEMI Energy Advancement Leadership Conference
Karl R. Rábago
Energy Group Director
krabago@harc.edu
Houston Advanced Research Center
www.harc.edu
November 18, 2004
Houston Advanced Research Center
The Woodlands, Texas
◊
Mission focused
independent contract
research center
◊
Established 1982
◊
Sustainable development

Clean / Renewable Energy

Sustainable Technologies

Life Sciences / Health

Environment

Social / Policy Analysis
◊
Lab and office space
◊
Around 50 employees
◊
Not-for-profit
Clean & Renewable Energy at HARC
◊ Fuel Cell Evaluation Users Group

Ten different modules/systems from five different
manufacturers (2001-2004)
◊ Combined Heat & Power (CHP)

Production of multiple energy products from a single
source for maximum efficiency (e.g., cogeneration)
◊ Carbon Management & Markets

Industrial Coalition

Credit aggregation & marketing
◊ Energy Policy

Member, TX Renewable Energy Industry Assc.
◊ Consulting
In the Future . . .
In the Future . . .
Our predictions will
come out wrong
(unless)
US energy/GDP already cut 42%,
to very nearly the 1976 “soft path”
250
primary energy
consumption
(quadrillion BTU/year)
200
"hard path"
projected by
industry and
government
government
actual total
consumpti
on
total
energy
reported
150
actual
consumption
"soft path"
proposed
by Lovins
100
coal
coal
oil and
gas
gas
50
oil and gas
soft technologies
(which do not include
big hydro or nuclear)
nuclear
nuclear
renewables
0
1975
renewables
1980
1985
Rocky Mountain Institute
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
In the Future . . .
Crisis will still be the
strongest motivator
Precipitating Facts
TABLE 1: Benefits of Texas Energy Industry
revenues shown are in millions of dollars
1982
1995
Change
School Fund
$512
$124
- 76%
Severance
Tax
$2,374
$848
-64%
Mining Jobs
292,000
147,800
-49%
Virtus Energy
End of a Legend
Virtus Energy
A New Vision
The Texas Sustainable Energy
Development Council envisions a
Texas responsibly powered by its
sustainable energy resource base
and serving as a model to others in
equitable prosperity, environmental
health, advanced technology,
innovative government and respect
for future generations.
Texas: Clean Energy Giant?
TX SECO # 8
A Reminder
◊ “Resource” is a topic that embodies both
economic and physical attributes
◊ We are NOT going to run out of the physical
resource - Did a shortage of stones end the
stone age?
◊ We ARE going to run out of willingness to pay
(in $, frustration, and consequences) for some
resources and in some locations
◊ So, at $10 billion dollars or 1 million cases of
cancer or 1 million refugees per pound or per
barrel or per bushel, we have an infinite supply
. . . What are you willing to pay?
In the Future . . .
We will measure
success against the
Triple Bottom Line
Sustainable Development
Society
Economy
Environment
In the Future . . .
We will learn
Systems Thinking
Practical Electric Economics
Optimized industrial design
• Redesigning a standard
(supposedly optimized)
industrial pumping loop
cut its power from 95 to
7 kW (–92%), cost less
to build, and worked
better in every way
• No new technologies —
just two changes in the
design mentality
• Many other examples are
in Natural Capitalism,
free at www.natcap.org
New design mentality example
1. Big pipes, small pumps (not the opposite)
No new technology, except in the
mind of the designer
2. Lay out the pipes first, then the equipment
(not the reverse).
Optimize the WHOLE system,
and for multiple benefits.
No new technologies, just
two design changes
◊ Fat, short, straight pipes — not skinny, long,
crooked pipes!
◊ Benefits counted

92% less pumping energy

Lower capital cost
◊ “Bonus” benefit also captured

70 kW lower heat loss from pipes
◊ Additional benefits not counted

Less space, weight, and noise

Clean layout for easy maintenance access

But needs little maintenance—more reliable

Longer equipment life
In the Future . . .
We will look before
we leap
It Takes a System
Finding Better Options
Some Systems are Better than Others
In the Future . . .
Energy solutions will
be smaller and more
satisfying
A 5-year rolling average reveals that US fossil-fueled
steam unit orders have been fading since the 1970s; their
ordering rate, all ≤1/5 the former size, is now back to
Victorian levels
Rocky Mountain Institute
Big steam units aged ungracefully
RMI analysis by André Lehmann, using Markovian smoothing of 29 July 1994 NERC raw data on all 1,347– 1,527 U.S.
steam units in the years shown; raw data kindly provided by Resource Insight, Inc.
“Distributed Benefits”
◊ Small Is Profitable: The Hidden
Economic Benefits of Making
Electrical Resources the Right
Size (RMI, 8/02)

www.smallisprofitable.org

One of The Economist’s top three
business/economics books of 2002
◊ Codifies and quantifies 207
“distributed benefits” that
collectively increase the
economic value of
decentralized generation by
typically ~10 (but sitespecific)
In the Future . . .
The system will be
smarter
Smarter & More Communicative
U.S. DOE
Why Make Just One Product?
Why Sell Only One Product?
Production of
Renewable
Energy
Environmental & Other Benefits
(from displacement)
Commodity Electricity
• Certificates represent the contractual
right to claim the environmental and
other non-electricity attributes
associated with electricity generated
from a renewable energy facility
• May be traded independently of energy
markets
In the Future . . .
We will recognize
that public goods can
and should be wellmanaged with public
policy
US Transportation Oil Gap
US DOE Hydrogen Posture Plan
California: policy works
Per-Capita Electricity Consumption, 1960–2000
16
14
12
MWh Per Person-Year
Rest of US
California
10
8
6
4
(DOE and CEC data, compiled 1960–89 by Worldwatch Institute, 1990–2000 by Rocky Mountain Institute;
2000 data are preliminary; 1991–2000 population data not yet renormalized to 2000 Census findings)
2
0
1960
1965
Rocky Mountain Institute
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
A Variety of Policies
AWEA Wind Energy Outlook 2004
In the Future . . .
Materials will matter
. . . even more
World Demand for Stuff is Growing
Dematerialization
Principal Flows are Fossil Related
WRI
Hazards are Growing
WRI
As with Energy, So with Materials
No Materials Self-Sufficiency
Thanks!
◊ Visit us at www.harc.edu
◊ Karl R. Rábago
krabago@harc.edu