PEOPLE ARE IMPORTANT: THE
DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES
FACING NEW ZEALAND AND
AUSTRALIA
by
Graeme Hugo
ARC Australian Professorial Fellow
Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre
for Social Applications of GIS,
The University of Adelaide
Presentation on the Occasion of the Launch of the National Institute
of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), Te Runanga Tatari
Tatauranga – University of Waikato
24 November 2010
Outline of Presentation
• Introduction
• Why is Demography Relevant?
• The Demographic Challenges in
OECD Countries
- Ageing and the Workforce
- International Migration
- Climate Change
• Policy Implications
• Conclusion
Demography
The scientific study of the changing
size, composition and spatial
distribution of the population and
the processes which shape them.
Demographic Study
• Analysis of trends
• Identifying causes
• Projecting future populations
• Identifying implications
Demography and the Future
• Projections Vs Predictions
• Indicates what the population will be like
given certain assumptions
• A partial window on the future
Why is this Important?
• Most business and government involves
providing goods or services to people
• Hence demand is influenced by:
-
number of persons
-
their characteristics
-
their ability to purchase
• Demography does not fully determine
demand but it does exert a strong influence
How can Demography Assist
Business?
• Marketing and retailing : identifying,
locating and understanding the diverse
consumer groups that form markets for
goods and services
• Human resource planning
• Site selection and evaluation
• Tracking emerging markets
Demography and Markets
• The population is constantly changing
• The mass market has been replaced by
segmented markets
• Identifying growth in particular
segments of the market can give a
competitive advantage
Exploding Myths About
Population
• Population is dynamic, always changing,
but the change is gradual
• Population is influenced by economic
change but not a function of them
• Some population change is structural –
inevitable and predictable
• Population is amenable to policy
intervention
“Over the next couple of decades nothing
will impact OECD economies more
profoundly than demographic trends and,
chief among them, ageing”
Jean-Philippe Cotis
Chief Economist, OECD
March 2005
Labour Force Age Groups and
Dependency Rates
Source: World Bank, 2006
Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa)
Source: ESCAP 2009; Population Reference Bureau 2008 and 2009; ABS 2010;
Statistics New Zealand
Country/Region
Year
Rate Per Annum
World
2008-09
1.2
LDCs
2008-09
1.8
MDCs
2008-09
0.4
Europe and the New Independent States
2008-09
0.3
North America
2008-09
0.9
ESCAP Region
2008-09
1.0
Indonesia
2008-09
1.1
Australia
2008-09
2.1
Australia
2009-10*
1.8
New Zealand
2009-10**
1.2
* Year ending 31 March 2010
** Year ending 30 June 2010.
ABS Projections of the Population of
Australia, 2005 and 2008
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008
2006 Actual
2007 Actual
2021 Projected
2051 Projected
Australia
ABS 2005 ABS 2008
Series B
20.7
20.7
21.0
21.0
23.9
25.6
28.0
34.2
Structural Ageing:
Australia: Change by Age: 2006 – 2021; 2031 (Series B)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Age
85+
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2006-2021 (25.6 m)
2006-2031 (28.8 m)
0
Percentage Change
Source: ABS 2008 Projections
Baby Boomers 2006
• 27.5% of Australian Population
• 41.8% of Australian Workforce
• 23.9% of New Zealand Population
• 35.8% of New Zealand Workforce
Wittert 2006
Coping with Ageing
Populations (UN)
• No single action can adequately address
the problem. No “silver bullets”
• Policy adjustments should be carried out
be effecting small changes in many
domains
• Making adjustments early is easier than
delaying things until there is a crisis
Specific Actions (UN)
•
•
•
•
•
Increase labour force participation
Immigration
Increased age at retirement
Decrease benefits to retirees
Increase contribution of workers to social security
system
• Change in social security system from pay as you
go to capitalisation
• Promotion of increases in productivity and
development of new innovations
The 3Ps of Growth in Real GDP
Per Person
Source: Swan 2010, p.xiii
The Fourth P: Preparation
• At individual and household levels
• Community and provincial levels
• National level
The New Paradigm of
International Migration
• Transnationalism Vs Permanent
Relocation
• Increased focus on skill
• Increasing “onshore” migration
• The challenge of refugees and asylum
seekers
• Development can be positive for sending
areas
The New Paradigm of
International Migration (cont.)
•The Pacific Challenge
•Changing balance between Gateway Cities
and Regions
•Emigration and the Diaspora
•Environment and Migration
Top Immigration Countriesa, 2010
percentage of population
Source:
World Bank, 2011
Top Emigration Countriesa, 2010
percentage of population
Source:
World Bank, 2011
Global Skilled Migration
Twin Drivers
• Demographic differentials
• The war for talent – increasing demand for
human capital
National Diasporas in Relation to Resident National Populations
Source:
US Census Bureau, 2002a and b; Southern Cross, 2002; Bedford, 2001; Ministry of External Affairs, India, http://indiandiaspora.nic.in; Naseem, 1998;
Sahoo, 2002; Iguchi, 2004; Gutièrrez, 1999; Philippines Overseas Employment Service; Asian Migration News, 15-31 January 2006; OECD database on immigrants and
expatriates; Luconi 2006; Nguyen Anh 2005; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/korean_diaspora
USA:
8.7 million – 2.7 percent of national population
Australia:
900,000 – 4.3 percent of national population
New Zealand:
850,000 – 21.9 percent of national population
Philippines:
7.5 million – 9.0 percent of national population
India:
20 million – 1.9 percent of national population
Pakistan:
4 million – 2.8 percent of national population
China:
30 to 40 million – 2.9 percent of national population
Japan:
873,641 – 0.7 percent of national population
South Korea:
6.4 million – 13.2 percent of national population
Vietnam:
2.6 million – 3.2 percent of national population
Mexico:
19 million* – 19 percent of national population
Singapore:
100-150,000 – 3.5 percent of national population
Cook Islands:
52,600 – 34 percent of national population
Niue:
5,884 – 294.2 percent of national population
Tokelau:
2,019 – 138.5 percent of national population
Samoa:
78,253 – 44.5 percent of national population
Fiji:
128,284 – 15.8 percent of national population
Italy:
29 million – 49.4 percent of national population
* Mexican diaspora in the US
Emigration, Development and
Diaspora
• Shift in Discourse
• Potential Positive Role
- Remittances
- FDI
- Social Remittances
- Return - Permanent
- Temporary
- Virtual
• The key role of policy in origin and destination
Reassessing the Settlement
System
• New environment and economic reality
• New elements of economy – tourism,
mining, growing importance of food
security, agriculture, processing
• New environmental realities
• New methods of transport and
communication
• The baby boomers
• Climate change
The Climate Challenge
• Environment and Population
• Internal Population Distribution
• International Dimensions – the Pacific
The Population Dilemma in
Australia
• The need for growth – increased demand
for workers and replacement task for baby
boomers
• The constraints of environment
The Role of Policy
• Anticipating shifts in population and
preparing for them
• Developing policy to intervene to influence
population change
What is Needed?
• Currently there is an unproductive debate between
'pro growth' and 'stop growth' lobbies
• There must be trade offs and compromises which
facilitate growth with sustainability, informed by the
best information and knowledge available across all
relevant disciplines
• Regardless, there will be substantial continued
population growth over the next two decades but we
need to carefully consider
(a) How much growth and not adopt unsubstantiated
aspirational population targets?
(b) Where is that growth best located?
The Role of Research
• Discourse around the population issue is
too often subject to self interest, populism,
bigotry and misinformation
• The debate is often hijacked by interest
groups
• Need for soundly based, focused and
multi-disciplinary research to inform both
public debate and policy formulation
Conclusion
• Demographically Australia and New
Zealand are better placed than most
OECD countries to fact the challenges of
the next 2 decades
• However policy intervention will be needed
to maximise opportunities and minimise
negative effects
• The role of NIDEA