Proceedings of the 19th International Symposium on Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems – MTNS 2010 • 5–9 July, 2010 • Budapest, Hungary On Robustness Analysis of Large-scale Transportation Networks Giacomo Como Ketan Savla Daron Acemoglu Munther A. Dahleh Emilio Frazzoli ISBN 978-963-311-370-7 Abstract —In this paper, we study robustness properties of transportation networks with respect to its pre-disturbance equilibrium operating condition and the agents’ response to the disturbance. We perform the analysis within a dynamical system framework over a directed acyclic graph between a single origin-destination pair. The dynamical system is composed of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), one for every edge of the graph. Every ODE is a mass balance equation for the corresponding edge, where the inflow term is a function of the agents’ route choice behavior and the arrival rate at the base node of that edge, and the outflow term is function of the congestion properties of the edge. We consider disturbances that reduce the maximum flow carrying capacity of the links and define the margin of stability of the network as the minimum capacity that needs to be removed from the network so that the delay on all the edges remain bounded over time. For a given equilibrium operating condition, we derive upper bounds on the margin of stability under local information constraint on the agents’ behavior, and characterize the route choice functions that yield this bound. We also setup a simple convex optimization problem to find the most robust operating condition for the network and determine edge-wise tolls that yield such an equilibrium operating condition. I. INTRODUCTION Social planning for efficient usage of transportation networks (TNs) is attracting renewed research interest as transportation demand is fast approaching its infrastructure capacity. While there exists an abundant literature on socially optimal traffic assignments, e.g., see [1], robustness analysis of TNs has received very little attention. In this paper, we study the relationship of the robustness properties of a large-scale TN to its pre-disturbance equilibrium operating condition and the agents’ response to the disturbance. We abstract the topology of the transportation network by a directed acyclic graph between a single origin-destination pair. For the analysis, we adopt a dynamical system framework that is composed of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), one for every edge of the graph. Every ODE represents a mass balance equation for the corresponding edge, where the inflow term is a function of the agents’ route choice behavior and the arrival rate at the base node of that edge, and the outflow term is function of the congestion properties of the edge. We consider a setup where, before the disturbance, the network is operating at an equilibrium operating condition and information about this equilibrium condition is shared by all the agents. Such an equilibrium condition might be thought of as the outcome of a slower G. Como, K. Savla, M. A. Dahleh and E. Frazzoli are with the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. f giacomo,ksavla,dahleh,frazzoli g @mit.edu.D. Acemoglu is with the Department of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. daron@mit.edu . time-scale learning process, e.g., see [2], [3], [4], in presence of incentive mechanisms such as tolls, e.g., see [5], [6]. After the disturbance, we assume that the global knowledge of the agents remains fixed and that the agents act by complementing the fixed global knowledge with real-time local information. Such a setup is meant is give insight into the evolution of the network in the immediate aftermath of a disruption when the availability of accurate global information about the whole network is sparse or it is too time-consuming for the agents to incorporate the real-time information about the whole network because of the huge computations involved. We consider disturbances that reduce the maximum flow carrying capacities of the edges by affecting their congestion properties. We define the margin of stability of the TN to be the maximum sum of capacity losses, under which the traffic densities on all the edges remain bounded over time. We then prove that, irrespective of the route choice behavior of the agents, the margin of stability is upperbounded by the minimum of all the node cuts of the residual capacities of the TN. We then characterize the route choice behaviors that match this upper bound. Finally, we study the dependence of the margin of stability on the equilibrium, and formulate a simple optimization problem for finding the most robust equilibria. This is, in general, different from the classical socially optimal equilibrium, as well as from the user-optimal equilibrium. We also discuss the utility of tolls in yielding a desired equilibrium operating condition. Our results provide important guidelines for social planners in terms of determining robust equilibrium operating conditions and route choice behaviors for TNs. Alternate notions of robustness for networks have been proposed in [7], [8], [9]. The contributions of the paper are as follows: (i) we formulate a novel dynamical system framework for robustness analysis of transportation networks, (ii) we derive an upper bound on the margin of stability of the network and characterize the features of the agents’ route choice behavior under which this bound is tight, and (iii) we postulate the notion of robustness price of anarchy to quantify the loss in robustness due to sub-optimal equilibrium operating condition of a network and discuss the use of tolls in removing this gap. This technical results of this paper rely on tools from several disciplines. The upper bounds on the margin of stability for a given equilibrium operating condition uses graph theory notions from flow networks, e.g., see [10]. The properties of the route choice functions that give maximum margin of stability are reminiscent of cooperative dynamics, e.g., see [11]. The problem of determining tolls for a desired 2399 : R+ ! R+ e e e e#0 e d e e = d (e where max e !RE + E+ ee e 1e e G. Como et al. • On Robustness Analysis of Large-Scale Transportation Networks equilibrium condition exploits the fact that the associated congestion game is a potential game and that the extremum of the potential function corresponds to the equilibrium. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section II, we describe basic notations and concepts useful for the paper and formulate the robustness analysis problem. In Sections III and IV, we derive bounds on the margin of stability of the network. Section V discusses the problem of selection of the most robust equilibrium operating point of the network. Finally, we conclude in Section VI with remarks on future research directions. e e T ) := (f is Lipschitz continuous, strictly increasing, stri concave, and such that (0) = 0, lim< +1 and limsup!+1( ) <+1. Let ( ) be the vector of the e flow functions ). Let be the set of all functions : Rthat satisfy condition (A2). Example: The following flow function belongs to f 1 e e2E; (2)>0 for all e2E. It follows from assu (A2) that ( ) admits a continuous inverse ( ). W then consider the delay functions e II. PROBLEM FORMULATION start by defining a few preliminary notations. Let N be the set of natural numbers, R be the set of real numbers, R be the set of non-negative real numbers and R>0be the set of positive real numbers. Let 1nbe the n-dimensional vector, all of whose entries are one. Let jBjbe the cardinality of set Band let int(B) denote the interior of set B. Let ✶(x) be the indicator function with respect to A, i.e., ✶AA(x) = 1 if x2Aand zero otherwise. Given a set A, let Apcbe its complement. For p2[1;1], k:kis the p-norm. Specifically, let k:kdenote the Euclidean norm. A. Physical properties of the network and Wardrop equilibrium + vLet the topology of the transportation network be described by a directed graph G= (V;E), where Vis the set of nodes and Eis the set of edges. An edge e2Efrom u2Vto w2Vis represented by the ordered set (u;w). Given an edge e= (u;w), uwill be called the base node of edge e. Let o2Vand d2Vbe the origin and the destination nodes in G. For every node v2Vnfdg, we shall denote by E Ethe set of outgoing edges from v. Similarly, For every node v2Vnfog, we shall denote by E1 v;v2;:::;v Ethe set of incoming edges to v. A path from a vertex u2V and w2Vis an ordered set of vertices u;v;w such that (u;v1);(v1;v2);:::;(vll;w) each belong to E. The length of such path will be defined to be l+ 1, i.e., the number of edges in the path. A path is said to exist between u2Vand w2Eif there exists an ordered set of nodes connecting uand w. m a x (A2) +We e max e +u max E 0 p;q2Pf ; (3) i.e., Te(fe) is the time taken to traverse link ewhen e)=f 1 e e(fe the flow on it is femax e:= limsup e!+1. Following assumption (A2), let f e( maxe) be the maximum flow capacity of edge e. Let fmax2RE +be the vector of maximum flow capacities of the links in E, ordered lexicographically. Let (f) := f 2 jlimsup e!+1 e( e) = fmax eE +, put v8e2 Eg. For a vector f2R+ v(f) := Pfor all v2Vnfog, (f) := P+ ve2Efe ve2Efemaxfor all v2Vnfdg. For a given Gand f2RE >0, define the set of admissible flows through Gas 8e2E; (f) = u(f) + ✶o ) be the interior of F (G;fmax). Throughout this paper, we will assume that Gand fare such that F (G;f) 6= ;. Let e 0 be the toll on edge e2E, and let 2Rbe the vector of tolls. Assuming a unit dollar value for a unit amount of delay the utility associated with edge ewhen the flow on it is feis (Te(fe) + fe). We now recall the notion of a Wardrop equilibrium [1] that also includes the effect of tolls. Define P:= fp2Pjfemax>0; 8e2pg. A Wardrop equilibrium is a vector f2F (G;f), such that, for all p;q2P,= XTe(fe) + e; T e F (G;fmax) := ff2RE 0 jf f (u) 8u2Vnfdgg: Let F (G;fmax Throughout, we shall assume that (A1) Gis acyclic, and there exists a path from everyv2Vnfdgto d. Let Pbe the set of distinct paths from oto din G, and let be the simplex of probability distributions over P. Traffic arrives at a unit rate at the node oand is destined for the node d. We shall denote the traffic density and flow, on the network at time tby vectors (t);f(t) 2Rrespectively, whose entries, e(t), and feE +(t), respectively, will denote the traffic density, and flow, on the link e2Eat time t. Traffic flow and density on a link are related by the functional dependence fe e2E: ); 8e2E; (1) on which we shall make the following assumption for all )+ e eT e2p=) X f p2P e the delay function T( ) is continuous, strictly increasing, and such that Tee(0) >0. Then, the claim follows by applying Theorems 2.4 and 2.5 from [1]. ). Proof It follows from = e( e 2400 assumption (A2) that, for all e2E, =) X Pr oc ee di ng s of th e 19 th Int er na tio na l Sy m po siu m on M at he m ati cal Th eo ry of Ne tw or ks an d Sy st e ms – M TN S 20 10 • 5– 9 Jul y, 20 10 • Bu da pe st, Hu ng ar y (f u;f eq) fe; e(0) = 1e +u e e eq;t)k 1 eq e eq limsup t!+1 e2E, e max) max max max e < +1 : R e m ar k 2. 3: E qu ati on s (1 ) an d (3 ) im pl y th at, for an y (t) !+1i mpli = f 2RE + (feq e e( e es that T!+1 . Ther efor e, defin ition 2.2 impli es that the tran spor tatio n netw ork is stabl e if the traffi c com es to a stan dstill at one or mor e locat ions in the netw ork. In thi s pa pe r, w e co ns id er di st ur ba nc es th at aff ec t th e flo w fu nc tio n, sp ec ifi ca lly by re du ci ng th e m ax im u m flo w ca pa cit y of th e ed ge s. W e sh all m ea su re th e m ag nit ud e of th e di st ur ba nc e by th e re su lta nt re du cti on in th e flo w ca rry in g ca pa cit y of th e ne tw or k. Le t (fj fg, w he re th e in eq ua lit y is el e m en t wi se , de no te th e se t of fe as ibl e di st ur ba nc es . O n ap pli ca tio n of a di st ur ba nc e 2 ( f), th e flo w pr ofi le s wi tc he s to 2( f) w hi ch is al so do mi na te d by th e pr edi st ur ba nc e flo w fu nc tio n by no m or e th an , i.e ., it sa tis fie s e (e ) 2[ e( e) e; )] for all 0 an d all e2 E. Ex a m pl e: Th e fol lo wi ng po stdi st ur ba nc e m od el is ad mi sIn this paper, we assume that G, and are such that feq e( ) >0 for every e2E. This is for technical reasons and we shall address the case when feq eeq( ) = 0 for some e 2Ein a future publication. We shall drop the explicit dependency of fon , when not required, for brevity in notation. B. Dynamic Route Choice Behavior We now describe the behavioral model of agents’ routing thro ugh the network. We envision a very large population of agents traveling through the network. Agents enter the network from the origin node oat a constant unitary rate, travel through it, and leave the network from the destination node d. Once left the n e t w o r k , a g e n t s join a rese rvoir , from whic h they will even tuall y reen ter t h e n e t w o r k . W h il e inside the network, agents occu link e2E. The rate at which they le eis fe= e( e), where eis the curren occupancy density of e. When lea e2E+ v v, agents choose which link join. We shall assume such a cho depend on two factors: (i) a perso on what the best path is, which is at a time scale much slower than one of the dynamics through the n (ii) an instantaneous local feedbac consisting in the observation of th traffic flows on the outgoing links. focus of this paper is on robustne properties when the network is dis from its equilibrium operating condition, we study the relationship between the robustness properties of the network and the myopic behavior of agents based on instantaneous local feedback for a constant belief by the agents on the best path that also coincides with the equilibrium operating condition. More precisely, if feq e q = 1(f 2 F (G;f e q u +u + u u e( ;feq), where Gu u( u;feq E+ u+ u+ u ma x d e(t) = u d (f)Gu t e e( e ) = (fmax e) k ); f= e( ); 8e2E8u2Vnfdg; (4) DThe stability of the transportation network is f ( defined as follows. G Definition 2.2: For a given G, flow profiles , equ ; f;t) is stable if, route choice function vector flow G dynamical system given by Equation (4), or ; equivalently D(G;G; ;f 1 eee ; f e2E: (5) e D. Robustness: Margin of stability We quantify the robustness of transportation network by eqdefining a notion of margin of stability as follows. For a given G, equilibrium flow f, route choice function vector G, define the set of destabilizing disturbances as: ;feq ) s.t. D(G;G; ;t) is unstableg: Define the the margin of stability of the given transporta- 2 (fm ax U(G;G;feq E. Problem statement Given a set of feasible route choice functions , define eq) := supthe maximum attainable margin of stability as: (G; ;fG2 (G;G;feq): (6) ) is the Wardrop equilibrium operating condition of the sible with respect to the example given in Equation network then it also constitutes the beliefs shared by all (2). the agents on the best path through the network. Let ) be the corresponding equilibrium agent densities on the links. For a node u2Vnfdg, let be the simplex of probability distributions over E. We shall assume that the probability that an agent chooses link e 2Ewhen traversing node u and observes the actual density 2Ris given by Gis a Lipschitz continuous function. Let Gbe the vector of node-wise route choice functions G. Let be the set of all such Lipschitz continuous G. In the sequel, we shall consider a certain subclass of by placing restrictions on the amount of local information available to the agents. Accordingly, let u be the set of Gsuch that the node-wise Ghave access only to the densities on the links E, i.e., if the local density at node uis denoted by 2R, then such a G) is the route choice function at node u. eq) tion network as: eq) := inf k k1: 2 U(G;G;f (G;G;f 1 C. Dynamical system formulation For a given G, flow 2F (G;f feq profiles 2 , equilibrium flowmaxeq), route choice function vector G2 , let D(G;G; ;f;t) be the solution of the following system of ordinary differential equations: 24 Our primary obje 01 functions Gin the margin of stabilit maximum margin equilibrium flow max) and a G2 , consider the initial value problem for is differentiable in and @Gv j( v) +v every node v2Vnfdg:(d dt j= v(t)Gv j( v1) j( ); j(0) = eq j; Gj( ) = 0; 8j2E +v j2Ej+ v: Assume that the input v(t) is continuous, and it satisfies the following for every node v2Vnfdg: f ; t 0: (12) j 1 2 F (G;fmax 1 (A4) Gv j v(t) v X + v max j j Proceedings of the 19th International Symposium on Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems – MTNS 2010 • 5–9 July, 2010 • Budapest, Hungary < 0; 8j6= k2E: (A5) lim!+1: Assumption (A3) is a Lemma 4.2 (Local stability and diffusivity consistency assumption, and ensures properties): Given a 2 (f that, if the current flow coincides locally with the agents’e q belief, then their route choice coincides with such a belief. Assumption (A4) instead captures the fact that, if the flow, and hence the congestion, on a certain link is increased, then each of the other links is chosen with higher probability. Let be the subset of whose elements satisfy assumptions (A3) and (A4). An example of function Gthat satisfies conditions (A3)(A5) when f) is the i-logit route choice with noise level >0, defined by ) j : 8J E (t))fThen, for all v2Vnfdgand t 0, we h X +v v such that j= eq j for some j2E + ; e v v j( v) >Gv j eq( feq e)Gj( ) Gj( v(t)) j( j e) >( X G v e ( v e q e ) = f e x p ( ( e ( e e q e ) ); .f+ We now present a local result for the behaviour of v the j 2 E fe q j e x p ( ( ) ) P f o r a l l v 2 V n f d g , a n d e 2 E + v j ( j eq e; j 8e6= j2E+ v ( eq j) 0: eq j) v : eq j e q j system on the set of outgoing edges from a given node.Second, if both We start with the following result ensuring existence of a local equilibrium. Le mma 4.1: For every node v2Vnfdg, and 0 + ve2Efmax e, there exists an equilibrium point < Psuch that vGv e( v) = e( e); 8e2E+ v: Proof We state the proof for the case when jE+ vvv2RE+ v+ vj= 2. The proof for the general case follows along similar lines. Let E= fe;jg. First, if both vmax e f, and vmax j, then the map g(fe) = vGv e(fe; vfe f) continuously maps the closed interval [ vmax jf;fmax e] in itself, and existence of a fixed point is guaranteed by Brouwer’s fixed point theorem. e fe)) fe 1 j( v m a x max j v >fmax e, and v >fmax j vGv e( 1 e(fe); , one has that (t)Gv j( v) j( j) n<0; 8 v 2@R; t 0: It fo v e ; lim e v e e q e e(t) such that h(f e) = 0. Setting f j concludes the proof. max e ~ 6= ) = , then consider the function h(f. Then, h is continuous over the nonempty interval ( ;f f), and satisfies limh(f fe! v max jf e ) = fmax j fe max e!f h(fe max e) = f : max j j ; 8e2E; 8t 0: (14) On the other hand, thanks to Lemma 4.1, there exists ef = v Therefore, by the mean-value theorem, ther some f e = j for some j2E; e v e) = vGv e( 1 e(fe); h(f ) >0; lim e e h(f ; v j( R fe!f v j ) <G j ( ( Gv j( v) j( j) n<0; 8 v 2@R g; ! 0 ; 8j2E 1. 2403 Finally, consider the case < , while f when f 1 j( v f )) fmax e max e f X such that ( := f : e; 8e6= j2E: Assumption (A4) implies that G), and then (t)Gv j( v) j( j) < Gv j( ) j j) = 0: Therefore, e 6= ; where +v f j); 8j2E j he case when the roles of eand j are reversed can be treated by a symmetric argument). Then, the function h(fis continuous and decreasing over the interval (0;f), and satisfies limmax e) = f and existence of a zero is again guaranteed by the meanvalue theorem. We now prove an important lemma on the node-wise stability and diffusivity properties of G2 (t such that v Then, for all e v G. Como et al. • On Robustness Analysis of Large-Scale Transportation Networks and nis the outward-pointing normal vector to its boundary. This proves that e2E ~ e(t) e; 8e2E; 8t 0; from which, in e(~ ee2E(t)) X X particular, it follows that A. R ob us t eq uil ibr iu m se le cti on as an op ti mi za tio n pr ob le m Th e ro bu st eq uil ibr iu m se le cti on pr ob le m ca n be po se V. ROBUST EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION AND OPTIMAL TOLL SELECTION e( e) = : (15) In the previous sections, we studied robustness properties of a transportation network around a g equilibrium point. We now return to our secondar objective of identifying the most robust equilibrium operating point for the network. d as f eqa ); subj. to f 1 Pj=2J j(~ Now, combining (15) with (14), one gets that, for all t 0 P v(t)) Pj=2J jj( eq j) = + Pj2J f + Pj=2J feq j ( eq j2J j j) + P) e + ; and j2J maximize (G; j(~ j(t)) v e q 2F (G;f The solution to this optimization problem can help a system planner evaluate the distribution of traffic flow that is most robust to disruptions and can implement this distribution using, for example, using tolls , e.g., see [5]. Similar optimization problems and their solution methodologies have been widely studied in context of traffic assignment in [1]. qj j j ~j +v ma x j j e e v j(~ v) G v j( v u2Vnf (fmax e= dg e2E+ u Gv j(~ v) j(~ j) (t)Gv j( v) j( j) = ddt j 2404 eq e) 8G2 e qas stat )traffic fl respon =and the anarch Pmeasu e 2respec Esocieta by the transpo societa thereb anarch 1: d t ~ j where . To complete the proof, it remains to show that (t) . In order to see this, first observe that ~ (t); t 0: (16) for all j2E(0) = (0). Moreover, if ~ j(t) = (t) for some j, and ~ (t) (t) for all other e, then Assumption (A4) guarantees that G), and, as a consequence, d j j2E + v =P v(feq = v ;feq. Therefore the optimization problem stated in ; Equation (18) is equivalent to minimizing a convex function over a convex polytope. However, note that the objective function, (G; ) is non-smooth and one needs to use non-smooth convex optimization techniques, e.g., see [12], to solve this problem. which in turn can be shown to imply (16). Remark 4.3: Lemma 4.2 implies that for a G2 , the effect of a B. The robustness price of anarchy Conventionally, disturbance diffuses away from the location where it is transportation networks have been viewed applied. Specifically, the increase in the flow on all the It is worth noting that, for a parallel topology, we have edges downstream from a node whose outgoing edges that (G; 1;feq) = (G; ;feqf1 for all feq) = 0 for all feq. That is, are affected by a disturbance, is less than the magnitude the margin of stability is independent of the equilibrium of the disturbance. operating condition and hence, for a parallel topology, One can exploit the local stability and diffusivity P(G; ;f. However, for a general topology and a general property of Gin from Lemma 4.2 along with a standard equilibrium, this quantity is non-zero. In the next section, induction associated with a topological ordering of an we discuss the use of tolls to yield a robust equilibrium acyclic graph to prove the following theorem. point for a given topology, i.e., the one for which the robustness price of anarchy is zero. Equation (17) shows a minimum of a set o is concave in f 1 X f (17) Note that the second part of the Theorem 4.4 follows by combining the first part and Theorem 3.2. Remark 4.5: Theorem 4.4 implies that, for a given feq, the route choice functions Gin 1give the maximum possible margin of stability. 1 eq ) (G;G;f and hence, (G; minu2Vnfdg eq) = min X 1;f eq (fmax +ue2E e eq ef) 8G2 1; P(G; ;f eq) = (G; ) (G; ;f eq): Proceedings of the 19th International Symposium on Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems – MTNS 2010 • 5–9 July, 2010 • Budapest, Hungary ) Te(feq(0)) VI. CONCLUSION a desired equilibrium operating condition, feq( ), for the network. form Remark 5.2: The set of tolls equilibrium operating condi any toll of the as the equilibrium condition. Proposition 5.1 gives just would yield f one such set of tolls. Proposition 5.1: Given a graph Gsatisfying (A1), 2 , and a desired equilibrium f 2 F (G;fmax), a set of tolls 2RE +that yield this desired equilibrium is given by e2E (1) = max ); TeTe(feq(0)) T(feq(0)) T(f e2E = T(f eq(0))T(f ), with maxe2E Te(f 0 where feq fe V ( e 2 E = T ) f + = X Z fe X Z Te(z)dz; (19) (0) is the Wardrop equilibrium for tolls set to zero. Proof Let be a simplex of dimension P(number of paths in Gbetween oand d). Consider the function V : !R that serves as a potential function for the congestion game at hand: where f = A T eq Te(z)dz; V( ) = (A )Te2E + XZ0(AT )e In this paper, we studie transportation networks pre-disturbance equilib agents’ response to the disturbances that reduc capacities of the edges properties. We define t network to be the maxi under which the traffic bounded over time. We choice functions that yi stability for a given equ also the formulated an most robust equilibrium use of tolls in yielding a condition. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work was supported in part by NSF EFRI-ARES grant number 0735956. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the supporting organizations. ( 2 minimize V( ); subj. to 2 : 0 ) , with A2f0;1gP Ep;ebeing the path-link incidence matrix, Following assumption (A2) and the discussion i.e., for all e2Eand p2P, A= 1 if elies in path pand zero thereafter, it is easy to see that V( ) is convex in . It is otherwise. Equation (19) can be rewritten as known, e.g., see Theorem 2.1 in [1], that the (unique) Wardrop equilibrium f( ) is equivalent to the first order optimality condition of the following optimization problem: In future, we plan to extend the research in several robustness analysis in a probabilistic framework versus topologies, e.g., graphs h directions. 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