Mata kuliah
: F0922 - Pengantar Analisis Pendapatan Tetap
Dan Ekuitas
Tahun
: 2010
ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS
Pertemuan 9
-mupo-
ANALISIS EKUITAS: MARKET ANALISIS
Materi :
1.
Review: Market/Macro Economy analysis
2.
Kasus : mengenai Market Analysis
1. Market Analysis
Dalam penilaian suatu Investasi, dikenal Top down/three step
appraoch, antara lain dikenal Market Analysis/Macro Economic
Analysis.
1.1 Framework of Analysis:
1.1.1 Fundamental Analysis
1.1.2 Approach to Fundamental Analysis:
- Domestic and global economic analysis
- Industry analysis
- Company analysis
1.1.3 Why use the top-down approach?
Bina Nusantara University
4
Market Analysis (cont’)
1.2 Global Economic Considerations
1.2.1 Performance in countries and regions is highly variable.
1.2.2 Political risk
1.2.3 Exchange rate risk
• Sales
• Profits
• Stock returns
1.3 Key Economic Variables
1.3.1 Gross domestic product
1.3.2 Unemployment rates
1.3.3 Interest rates & inflation
1.3.4 Budget deficit
1.3.5 Consumer sentiment
Market Analysis (cont’)
1.4 Demand Shocks
Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and
services in the economy.
1.4.1 Tax rate cut
1.4.2 Increases in government spending
1.5 Supply Shocks
Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity
or production costs.
1.5.1 Commodity price changes
1.5.2 Educational level of economic participants
1.6 Government Policy
1.6.1 Fiscal Policy- government spending and taxing actions.
- Direct policy
- Slowly implemented
Government Policy (cont’)
1.6.2 Monetary Policy - manipulation of the money supply
to influence economic activity.
- Initial & feedback effects
- Tools of monetary policy
o
Open market operations
o
Discount rate
o
Reserve requirements
1.7 Cyclical Indicators
1.7.1 Leading Indicators - tend to rise and fall in advance of
the economy.
Examples:
- Avg. weekly hours of production workers
- Stock Prices
Cyclical Indicators (cont’)
1.7.2 Coincident Indicators- indicators that tend to change
directly with the economy.
Examples:
• Industrial production
• Manufacturing and trade sales
1.7.3 Lagging Indicators- indicators that tend to follow the
lag economic performance.
Examples:
• Ratio of trade inventories to sales
• Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income
2. Kasus : Market Analysis
Data: 31 Desember 2009
- Gross Domestic Product naik dari 2008
US Dollar 2,357 menjadi US Dollar 2,724 per kapita
- Pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,5%, sesuai target
- Interest rate turun menjadi 6,5%, awal tahun 9,5%
- IHSG mencapai nilai tertinggi diakhir tahun Rp 2,500
- Kurs US Dollar 9,450 awal tahun Rp 11, 300
- Minyak mentah naik menjadi US$ 79 per barel, APBN
meperhitungkan rat-rat tahun 2009 US$ 70 per barel
- Situasi politik agak memanas
- Bencana alam 2009 cukup banyak, dan 2010 BMG diperkirakan
cuaca kurang bagus
Tanggapi data di atas apakah Saudara optimis atau pessimis dengan
keadaan di atas, jelaskan dengan argumen Saudara!