Topics of Discussion
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Who we are
Our modeling philosophy
Examples of GNOME use
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Past to present
The group in 1979
Bushy in wide brim hat.
The challenge:
To provide oil spill trajectory
information nation wide within
6-8 hrs of receiving the request.
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In the beginning
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Wrote all our own software from
digitizing to hydrodynamics to transport.
Tools had to be flexible in time and
length scales.
Needed to be 24/7 with backup capability
Needed to work in data sparse, high
profile situations
Tied ourselves to the CG
Reserved the right to be smarter later
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20 years later(2001)
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HAZMAT
becomes an ORR
cog with DAC and
CPRD
ORR staff with
contractors about
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27 years later
Dept of Commerce
NOAA
NWS
National Ocean Service
COOPS
DAC
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HAZMAT
ORR
NMSP
CPRD
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Things we now
support
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Spill Response Mission
Search and Rescue
Planning
International work
Training
Outreach
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10 years of spills
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Recent notable
events
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9/11 … CG changes, emphasis on
preparing for terrorist attacks
Natural disasters…floods,
hurricanes
Lack of Federal funds
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Our Approach to
modeling
“…the chief aim of the physicist in
discussing a theoretical problem is
to obtain insight. For this purpose a
legitimate approximation … is a
discernment that certain factorscertain complications of the
problem do not contribute
appreciably to the results.”
Neumann & Pierson, p 116.
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Key HAZMAT rules
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I don’t know, is not an option
Initial response needed in hours
Get smarter as we go along
Flexibility in people and tools
Sometimes better is the enemy of
good enough (Spinrad ‘03)
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What if I really don’t
know
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Identify key forcing functions
Come up with a plan to acquire data
Have a plan on how to use data
Give it your best shot
Improve answers as data becomes
available
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Getting smarter
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Need a periodic review process
Methods and approaches need to
be flexible
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Good Enough
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No model gives good answers all the
time
No model gives good answers
everywhere
Know what the answers will be used for
Know how good the answers need to
be
Always show uncertainty bounds
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GNOME
General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment
The Best FREE piece of software available for
waterborne pollutant modelling
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What is GNOME?
HAZMAT’s official oil spill model
 A Lagrangian Element transport
model (moves particles around)
 Available for Windows and Mac
platforms
 Available for free from our website
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/
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What it is not
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Not a hydro model. Generates no
currents.
Not a wind model.
Not a fate and effects model
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Santa Barbara Example
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Currents from other models
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Using HF Radar Data
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For subsurface
tracking
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We use a variation of GNOME
Not available to public
Work under development
3D data unavailable
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Subsurface plume example
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Subsurface plot
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Conc. at location
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The challenges
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The REAL challenges
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Defining how good the answers
need to be
How do you meld hydrodynamic
models with biological models
How do you deal with uncertainties
How do you do metrics and quality
control without data
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Conclusions
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GNOME is a free and flexible
transport model
NOAA/HAZMAT has a subsurface
transport model in development
The uncertainties are large and the
answers are not clear so experts
are still required to interpret and
provide insight.
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