Tamiflu 'useless' against avian flu
Doctor who has treated 41 victims of virus
says 'we place no importance on this drug'
Posted: December 4, 2005
1:00 a.m. Eastern
© 2005 WorldNetDaily.com
After treating 41 victims of H5N1, the deadly form of the bird flu virus, a Vietnamese doctor
has concluded Tamiflu, the drug most widely stockpiled around the world to combat a feared
pandemic, is "useless."
Dr. Nguyen Tuong Van, who runs the intensive care unit of the Center for Tropical Diseases
in Hanoi, followed World Health Organization guidelines in her treatment of patients but
concluded it had no effect on the disease.
"We place no importance on using this drug on our patients," she said. "Tamiflu is really only
meant for treating ordinary type A flu. It was not designed to combat H5N1 ... [Tamiflu] is
useless."
Van said bird flu is far worse that SARS, an avian-linked respiratory illness, which she has
also treated. Caring for H5N1 victims requires intensive patient "support" with modern
technology, like ventilators and dialysis machines, if patients are to be kept alive. Even
Western countries with wide access to technology would see there medical infrastructure
strained to the limit if the dreaded pandemic comes.
Van did not criticize governments for stockpiling the drug but said doctors had to inform the
public about its performance.
Roche, the Swiss pharmaceutical, has sold stockpiles of its Tamiflu to 40 countries and insists
it's effective if administered within 48 hours of infection. Roche recently licensed Indonesia to
manufacture Tamiflu for its own population.
As WorldNetDaily has reported, officials in at least two nations now suspect the avian flu
bug has mutated into a virus that is being transmitted from human to human – a
development world health authorities have estimated could result in the deaths of tens of
millions.
The WHO confirms Van's experience, admitting Tamiflu has not been "widely successful in
human patients," but speculates the drug has not been administered until late in the disease
in many Asian countries.
"While there is some anecdotal evidence of the build-up of resistance to antiviral drugs such
as Tamiflu," one health expert told the London Times, "at present the experience is that these
drugs do work."
Description of the issue
The issue is talking about a doctor in Vietnam who followed WHO guidelines
in her treatment of patients said Tamiflu, the drug most widely stockpiled
around the world to combat a feared had no effect on the disease H5N1.
Caring for the H5N1 victims requires intensive patient “support” with
modern technology like ventilators and dialysis machines to keep alive.
Also, Roche, the pharmaceutical, which produce Tamiflu, has recently
licensed Indonesia manufacture Tamiflu for its people.
Explaining the issue
Figure 1.1
When the news of avian flu bug has mutated into virus is being transmitted
from human to human broke out and the WHO said Tamiflu is effective to the
flu, many people rushed to buy tamiflu . The market price of Tamiflu is set
lower than the equilibrium price, quantity demanded is larger than the
quantity supplied, and there is an excess demand and an upward pressure on
the price. (See figure 1.1)
Figure1.2
After the people know that Tamiflu has not been widely successful in human
patients, they will do more protections for example do not eat raw chickens,
etc instead of buying Tamiflu. The demand of Tamiflu drops and this
decrease the excess demand. (See figure 1.2)
Figure 1.3
Since Chinese herbal medicine has proved that it can increase the resistance of
diseases and so Chinese herbal medicine and Tamiflu are competitive goods,
when people know that Tamiflu is not efficient for the avian flu, they will turn
to buy the Chinese herbal medicine.
When the demand of Chinese herbal medicine increases, there is an upward
pressure of the price
(See figure 1.3)
Also, the Roche Company has recently let the Indonesia produce Tamiflu
herself.
Indonesia practices mixed economy, so that most of the resources are owned
privately and individuals are free to make production or consumption
decision but at the same time, the government has the power to help
allocating the resources. In this case, the license is given to the Indonesian
government, so they have to decide “ For whom to produce” question in
order to rescue peoples’ lives.
Figure1.4
Since the Indonesian government got the license, they can produce Tamiflu
herself to satisfy their want. The supply of Tamiflu is then increase and the
supply curve shifts to the right. The quantity transacted increases and there is
an downward pressure on the price. (See figure 1.4)
Conclusion
Figure1.5
Most people want to get Tamiflu when they knew that Tamiflu can against
avian flu, the market price (P1) is set lower than the equilibrium price (Pe), by
combining the two reasons, these lead to an excess demand of Tamiflu
(QS1<Qd1).
But now, a doctor said that Tamiflu is not efficient for all people, people buy
less Tamiflu, it leads to a decrease in demand (d0→d1), this make the gap of
excess demand smaller, this also make the price decrease (P0→P2).
Recently, the Indonesian government can produce Tamiflu, there is an
increase in supply, quantity transacted increase and it leads to a downward
pressure for the price
But the decrease in demand is smaller than the increase in supply, so the price
of Tamiflu drops. (See figure1.5)