Mata kuliah
Dosen Pembuat
Tahun
: J0754 - Pengelolaan Organisasi Entrepreneurial
: D3122 - Rudy Aryanto
: 2009
Pengambilan Keputusan
Chapter 26
Learning Objectives
– Define the terms programmed decision and nonprogrammed
decision
– Describe the process of decision making
– Discuss the major behavioral influences on the process of
decision making
– Compare group decision making and individual decision making
– Identify the methods managers can use
to stimulate creativity in group decision making
Decision Making
The quality of managerial decisions
is the yardstick of a manager’s effectiveness
Decision Making
• This chapter analyzes decision making as a
consequence of information people receive through
the…
– Organizational structure
– Behavior of important persons
– Behavior of important groups
Types of Decisions
• Programmed decisions
– Specific procedures developed for repetitive and routine
problems.
• Nonprogrammed decisions
– Required by unique and complex management problems
Decision Type Comparison
Programmed Decisions
Nonprogrammed Decisions
Problem
Frequent, repetitive, routine.
Much certainty regarding cause
and effect relationships.
Novel, unstructured. Much
uncertainty regarding cause and
effect relationships.
Procedure
Dependence on policies, rules,
and definite procedures.
Necessity for creativity, intuition,
tolerance for ambiguity, creative
problem solving.
Example:
Business
Periodic reorders of inventory.
Diversification into new products and
markets.
Example:
Government
Merit system for promotion of
state employees.
Reorganization of state government
agencies.
Decision Making
Decision – Means to achieve
some result or to solve some
problem.
Every decision is the outcome of
a process that is influenced by
many forces.
The Decision-Making Process
Revise
Establishing specific goals &
objectives and measuring results
Identifying problems
Revise
Developing alternatives
Revise
Evaluating alternatives
Revise
Choosing an alternative
Revise
Implementing the decision
Revise
Controlling and evaluating
Goals, Objectives, & Evaluation
• Goals and objectives are needed
wherever performance influences effectiveness
– Which results must be achieved?
– Which measures show if those results have been achieved?
• Top management must communicate tolerance for
experimentation and failure by subordinates
Identifying Problems
• A necessary condition for a decision is a problem
Identifying Problems
• Identifying the exact problem can be hindered by certain
factors
– Perceptual problems
– Defining problems in terms of solutions
– Identifying symptoms as problems
Developing Alternatives
• Before a decision is made…
– Feasible alternatives should be developed
– The consequences of each considered
• The number of alternatives developed is limited by time
and cost constraints
– Too few alternatives can wind up costing even more time and
resources
• Scenario analysis lets managers…
– Compensate for tunnel vision
– Uncover more alternatives
Evaluating Alternatives
• The objective of decision making
– Selecting the alternative that will produce the most favorable
outcome
• The alternative-outcome relationship is based on three
possible conditions
– Certainty
– Uncertainty
– Risk
Choosing an Alternative
• An alternative is selected to solve a problem in
order to achieve a predetermined objective
– An alternative rarely achieves the objective without having an
impact on another objective
• The values of the decision maker strongly
influence the alternative chosen
• The decision maker is often a satisfier, rather
than an optimizer
– It is often impossible to identify all alternatives
Implementing the Decision
• Any decision that is not implemented is just an
abstraction
– Implementation may be more important than the actual choice of
the alternative
• Implementing decisions almost always involves people
– A technically sound decision can be undermined by dissatisfied
subordinates
– Solutions must be transformed into behavior
Control and Evaluation
• Effective management involves periodic
measurement of results
– Without a measurable objective, there is no way to judge
performance
• Changes, if necessary, must be made in
– The solution chosen
– Its implementation
– The original objective
• Once a decision is implemented, don’t assume
the outcome will meet the objective
Behavioral Influences on Decision Making
• These factors influence the decision-making process…
–
–
–
–
–
–
Ethics
Values
Personality
Propensity for risk
Potential for dissonance
Escalation of commitment
Ethical Decision Making
• Ethics helps individuals evaluate alternatives in terms of
right and wrong
• Unethical decisions and behavior can lead to:
– Distrust
– Conflict
– A less productive work environment
Workplace Misconduct
• Common types of misconduct
–
–
–
–
–
–
Lying to supervisors
Drug or alcohol abuse
Lying or falsifying records
Conflicts of interest
Stealing or theft
Misrepresenting information
to supervisors
Factors Influencing Ethical Decisions
• Factors that exert influence over ethical decisions…
–
–
–
–
–
–
Gender
Moral philosophy
Education
Work experience
Age
Awareness
Factors Influencing Ethical Decisions
• On the group level…
– Significant others within the organization influence peers and
coworkers
• At the organizational level…
– Culture and climate directly influence individual decision making
• A code of ethics raises employees’ awareness of ethical
behavior
Instilling Ethical Values
• Texas Instruments suggests that managers think before
acting:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Is the action legal?
Does it comply with our values?
If you do it, will you feel bad?
How will it look in the newspaper?
If you know it’s wrong, don’t do it!
If you’re not sure, ask.
Keep asking until you get an answer
Values and Decision Making
• Values have a profound impact on:
– Establishing objectives
– Developing alternatives
– Choosing an alternative
– Implementing a decision
– Control and evaluation
Personality and Decision Making
• Three types of variables effect the decision making
process:
– Personality variables: the attitudes,
beliefs, and needs of the individual
– Situational variables: external, observable situations in which
individuals find themselves
– Interactional variables: the individual’s momentary state that
results from the interaction of a specific situation with
the individual’s personality
Personality and Decision Making
• Conclusions about the influence of personality
on decision-making
– One person is unlikely to be equally proficient
in all aspects of the decision-making process
– Characteristics, like intelligence, are linked with
different phases of the decision-making process
– The relationship of personality to the decisionmaking process may vary for different groups
– Those facing important and ambiguous decisions
may be influenced heavily by peers’ opinions
Propensity for Risk
• Decision makers with low aversion
to risk
– Establish different objectives
– Evaluate alternatives differently
– Select different alternatives
• There is a fine line between
– Making ill-conceived, arbitrary decisions based on instinct (low
aversion)
– Becoming obsessed with numbers, analyses, and reports (high
aversion)
Propensity for Risk
• The amount of risk in a decision depends on answers to
these questions
– Have clear goals been established?
– Is information about possible alternatives known?
– Have future outcomes associated with the possible alternatives
been identified?
Framework for Classifying Decisions
Probability of Failure
Low
High
Characteristics of Decision
Certainty
Risk
Uncertainty
Goals are clearly established
Yes
Yes
Yes
Information about possible
alternatives is available
Yes
Yes
No
Future outcomes associated with
the alternative are understood
Yes
Yes
No
Potential for Dissonance
• Dissonance is post-decision anxiety
– There is often a lack of consistency, or harmony, among an
individual’s cognitions after a decision is made
– The decision maker has doubts and second thoughts about the
choice
Potential for Dissonance
• Intensity of the anxiety is greater under these conditions
– The decision is psychologically and/or financially important
– There are a number of forgone alternatives
– The forgone alternatives have many favorable features
Potential for Dissonance
• Dissonance can be reduced by…
– Seeking information that supports the wisdom of the decision
– Selectively perceiving information in a way that supports the
decision
– Adopting a less favorable view of forgone alternatives
– Minimizing the negative aspects of the decision and
exaggerating the positive aspects
Escalation of Commitment
• Occurs when a decision maker adheres to a course of
action
– Even when confronted with negative information about the
viability of that course of action
Escalation of Commitment
• Self-justification theory
– Decision makers escalate commitment because they don’t want
to admit that prior resources were not allocated properly
– They do not want to admit they were wrong
• Self-monitoring and feedback reduce potential cognitive
distortion
Group Decision Making
• Becoming more common because…
– Nonprogrammed decisions involve more uncertainty
– Increasing complexity requires specialized knowledge in
numerous fields
– Decisions must eventually be accepted and implemented by
many units within the organization
Individual vs. Group Decision Making
• Groups
– Take longer to reach decisions
– Consensus decisions superior to individual, majority vote, and
leader decisions
• Negative aspects
– Pressure to conform
– Reluctance to accept outside assistance
– Best results with nonprogrammed decisions
Individual vs. Group Decision Making
• Establishing objectives
– Groups are superior to individuals because of the greater pool of
knowledge
• Identifying alternatives
– Efforts of individual group members encourage a broad search in
various functional areas of the organization
• Evaluating alternatives
– Collective judgment of the group, with its wider range of
viewpoints, is superior to that of the individual decision maker
Individual vs. Group Decision Making
• Choosing an alternative
– Group interaction and consensus results in the acceptance of
more risk
– A group decision is more likely to be accepted due to the
participation of those affected by its consequences
• Implementing a decision
– Usually accomplished by individual managers
Relationship Between Quality of
Group Decision and Method Utilized
Probable Quality of Decision
More
Less
Minority
Majority Consensus
Individual Average
Individual Control
control
Method of Utilization of Group Resources
Stimulating Group Creativity
Brainstorming
Delphi Process
Nominal Group
Technique (NGT)
Brainstorming
• Promotes creativity by encouraging idea generation
through non-critical discussion
• Basic rules
– No idea is too ridiculous
– Each idea presented belongs to the
group, not to the person stating it
– No idea can be criticized
Delphi Process
• Involves…
– Soliciting and comparing anonymous judgments
on the topic of interest
– Uses sequential questionnaires interspersed
with summarized information and feedback
from earlier responses
• Advantages of this process
– Removes the biasing effects of face-to-face
interaction
– Multiple judges
Studies show no significant change after
the second round of estimation
Nominal Group Technique (NGT)
– 7-10 people convene to solve a problem
– Each person generates ideas in writing
– After 5 minutes, each person presents one idea
– A designated recorder writes the ideas on a flip chart
in full view of the group
– This continues until there are no more new ideas
– There is no discussion
– Each person privately ranks the ideas in order of
preference
– The group decision is the mathematically pooled
outcome of the votes
Delphi Process vs. NGT
Delphi
• Participants are
typically anonymous
• Participants are
physically distant
and never meet
• Communication is via
written questionnaires
and feedback
NGT

Participants become
acquainted

Participants meet faceto-face around a table

Participants
communicate directly