How poor farmers
can participate in choosing
technology development options
Erik Millstone
SPRU
e.p.millstone@sussex.ac.uk
STEPS
http://steps-centre.org/
The STEPS Centre
• Core concern: Identifying and building pathways to
‘poverty reduction’ in combination with ‘sustainability’
• Research themes: dynamics, governance, designs
• Normative benchmarks: Direction, Diversity and
Distribution
• Domains: agriculture & food, health & disease, water &
sanitation and energy
• An interdisciplinary approach: social and natural
sciences, development studies and science and
technology studies, assuming complexity, indeterminacy
and non-linearity.
Food Insecurity in ASAL Areas
• Nevertheless,
some 3.8 million
people remain food
insecure,
particularly in the
Arid and Semi-Arid
Lands (ASAL),
since only limited
harvests have
occurred
Source: FEWS Net after ALRMP and KFSSG (Jan 2010)
We are using maize as a ‘window’ though
which to analyse the dynamics of
environmental, social and technical change
in ‘innovation systems’ in Kenya
Since 2008, the BMGF has
invested ~$100m in:
• Drought Tolerant Maize for
Africa project DTMA
• Water Efficient Maize for
Africa (WEMA).
The BMGF’s Guidelines to Applicants
and tells proposers to indicate:
“Who are the target beneficiaries of
your work and how does your
approach specifically serve their
documented needs? and ‘How have
you consulted with your target
beneficiaries and assessed their
needs?”
Phase I Research – 2007-9
• Literature review – Kenya’s agricultural
history; environmental change; resilience;
maize R&D/innovation
• Key informant interviews (science
institutions, MoA, farmers’ organisations,
seed companies, NGOs, donors, others)
• Field study
– Sakai, Mbooni East District, Eastern
Province – ‘low potential’ zone
(participants from 5 villages); seed
selector interviews; feedback meeting.
Field Site
Sakai, Mbooni East – Low Potential
Phase II: Exploring Pathways in
and out of Maize
• Phase 1 fieldwork identified a set of 9 core
pathways in the Sakai Valley, generating
from:
1. Reliance on internal/external inputs 
including local vs. certified seed (OPVs,
hybrids, etc.) and their sources (informal
vs. formal channels)
2. Reliance on maize as key crop
3. Diversification out of maize  other
key crops (‘orphan’ dryland staple crops,
horticulture)
Typology of Pathways
Low Maize
LowExternal
Input
HighExternal
Input
High Maize
Typology of Pathways
Low Maize
1 – Alternative dryland staples
for subsistence
LowExternal
Input
HighExternal
Input
High Maize
3 – local improvement of local
maize
2 – Alternative dryland staples
for market
4 – Assisted seed
multiplication of alternative
dryland staples
5 – Assisted seed
multiplication of maize
6 – Individual high-value crop
commercialization
8 – Commercial delivery of
new DT maize varieties
7 – Group-based high-value
crop commercialization
9 – Public delivery of new DT
maize varieties
See Briefing Paper 3 for details
Low Maize + Low External Input
Pathway 1 – Alternative staples for subsistence
• Farmers diversify away from maize to alternative dryland staples
• These crops are increasingly grown alongside maize on the farm and
are used mainly for household consumption.
• Local varieties are grown with minimal or no external inputs
Pathway 2 – Alternative staples for market
• Farmers diversify away from maize to alternative dryland staples
• Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from
the sale of alternative crops.
• Local varieties are grown with minimal or no external inputs
High Maize + Low External Input
Pathway 3 – Local improvement of local maize
seed
• More farmers learn to select and multiply local
varieties of maize seed for local use (planting on
the local farm or sale/exchange with other
farmers)
• Local varieties of maize are used with minimal or
no external inputs (certified seeds, chemical
fertilizers, etc)
Low/High Maize + Low External Input +
Assisted Multiplication
Pathway 4 – Assisted seed multiplication (alternative crops)
• Farmers are assisted in multiplying seeds of available improved
varieties of alternative dryland staples
• These seeds are used for planting on the local farm or for
sale/exchange with other farmers.
• Varieties are provided to farmers and assistance is given in seed
multiplication, farming techniques, etc.
Pathway 5 – Assisted seed multiplication (maize)
• Farmers are assisted in multiplying seeds of available improved, openpollinated, drought-tolerant /drought-escaping maize.
• These seeds are used for planting on the local farm or are used for
sale/exchange with other farmers.
• Varieties are provided to farmers and assistance is given in seed
multiplication, farming techniques, setting up cereal banks, etc
Low Maize + High External Input
Pathway 6 – Individual high-value crop commercialization
• Farmers diversify into high-value/high-risk horticultural crops such as tomatoes,
onions and fruit trees
• Maize is gradually replaced on the farm by these high-value crops
• Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale
of high-value crops
• Crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc)
• Crops require access to a water source and/or water storage techniques
Pathway 7 – Group-based high-value crop commercialization
• Farmers form groups to diversify into high-value/high-risk horticultural crops
• Maize is gradually replaced on the farm by the high-value crops
• Maize is increasingly purchased for consumption with the proceeds from the sale
of high-value crops
• Crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers, etc)
• Crops require access to a water source and/or water storage techniques
High Maize + High External Input
Pathway 8 – Commercial delivery of new maize varieties
•
•
•
•
= DTMA & WEMA
Farmers purchase new hybrid maize seed varieties, such as drought-tolerant
hybrid maize from commercial dealers, such as private agro-dealers and stockists
Maize is grown on the farm for local consumption and/or sale
These crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical
fertilizers, etc)
Pathway 9 – Public delivery of new maize varieties
• Farmers purchase new hybrid maize seed varieties such as drought-tolerant hybrid
maize from public delivery mechanisms.
• Maize is grown on the farm for local consumption and/or sale.
• These crops are grown with external inputs (certified seeds, chemical fertilizers,
etc.).
• Those 9 pathways served as a starting
point to open up discussions with
farmers, scientists and policy makers on:
1. Range of pathways – analysing
pathways in and out of maize;
2. Discussion about relevant criteria
for choosing one pathway over
another in such a way as to factor in
the cross-scale dynamics and
constraints; and
3. Critical examination of alternative
visions of the future and
institutional arrangements needed
to support them
Phase III: Multicriteria Mapping (MCM):
The Interview Process
2. Develop a
set of criteria
1. Discuss
pathways

5. Reflect on
outcome
4. Assign
weight to
each criterion
3. Score pathways
under each criterion;
optimistic &
pessimistic scores to
reflect uncertainty
Multicriteria Mapping (MCM) Overview
• What we did
– 23 interviews conducted in November 2009
– Some individual, Some in groups
– Nairobi-based informants and Sakai Farmers
• Conducting the MCM interviews
– Nine pathways evaluated discussing agricultural
pathways ‘in and out of maize’
– 147 different and unique criteria defined by informants
to evaluate the pathways
• Analysing the MCM data
– Identify groups of informants
– Identify groups of criteria
– Evaluate pathway performance rankings
– Analyse the qualitative information provided in the
assessments
Groups of informants
1. Sakai Farmers (11 interviews)
a) Gender
b) Income level
2. Nairobi-based Informants (12 interviews)
a) Public sector officials
b) Commercially oriented
c) Science and technology institutes
d) Biotechnology focus
Sets of criteria: Macro and Micro Issues
• Economic and Market Issues 71 criteria
– Resource costs
– Availability and access to resources
– Market aspects
• Stress Tolerance Issues
23 criteria
30 criteria
18 criteria
43 criteria
– Water use
17 criteria
– Pests and disease resistance
14 criteria
– Suitability of crop to agro-ecological conditions 12 criteria
• Social, Political & Cultural Issues 33 criteria
– Knowledge and skills
– Social and cultural
– Food security
14 criteria
9 criteria
10 criteria
Evaluating pathway ‘performance rankings’
• Performance rankings are literal ‘maps’ of pathway scores
• Averaged across groups of stakeholder & sets of criteria
(issues)
• High end of range indicates average optimistic scores
• Low end of range indicates average pessimistic scores
• Length of range (or bar) indicates uncertainty & ambiguity
expressed
– Uncertainty is expressed by individuals in a stakeholder
group
– Ambiguity is the result of disagreement between
stakeholders
Qualitative analysis of the pathway evaluations
• Used to identify groups of stakeholders with
shared points of view
• Used to group criteria according to shared
themes
• Clarifies the reasons for convergence and
divergence in the pathways performance
rankings
Multicriteria Mapping (MCM):
The Interview Process
Performance rankings for low and high income Sakai farmers against a set of economic and
market criteria show different perceptions of barriers based on income level
Performance rankings for different groups of stakeholders shows a surprising amount of
optimism about alternative dryland staple crops, especially under a set of stress tolerance
criteria
Pathways in maize: Living in parallel worlds?
Performance rankings for different groups of Nairobi-based informants show
assisted seed pathways are ‘consistent’ performers
Pathways in maize:
Performance rankings for groups of Nairobi-based informants show a variety
of high performing pathways, but rarely high maize options
Sakai farmer performance rankings show a preference for local maize, not new maize