TOM ABEL Self-Organization of Cultural-Natural Systems

advertisement
TOM ABEL
Self-Organization of
Cultural-Natural Systems
Shenin Mesdaghi
Anthro 179a Prof. White UCI
Basic Background Info
 Apply complexity theory to the evolution of biological and cultural
systems
 Evolution is a multi-scaled, hierarchical process that involves
biological evolution and…
 at larger scales: the self-organization of ecosystems, and
 at smaller scales: physical/chemical selection
 Humans self-organize and pulse (expand and contract) within limits
of the available resources of the environment
 try to analyze/understand human cultural patterns within nature
through the context of thermodynamics and dissipative structures
Thermodynamics
 = study patterns of energy change
 1st Law: Total Energy of a system and its surrounding is
constant
energy cannot be created or destroyed
 2nd Law: The entropy of a closed system is continually
increasing. Entropy in the inner system decreases only if
entropy in the outer system increases.
entropy = measure of the unavailable energy of a system
Evolution of Natural Systems
 Any change in nature is irreversible, constructive,
and non-determinant (2nd law)
 Thermodynamically, nature self-organizes at
hierarchical, multi-scaled levels
 How does nature become self-organized?
Nature organizes itself as it dissipates energy
(releases thermal energy) and, consequently, as
it forms dissipative structures [Prigogine, Stengers]
Evolution of Natural Systems
In more detail…
the existence of free-floating matter and energy
are not purposeful in themselves unless internal
factors evolve that “control” or structure them
So, the existence of energy gradients (such as
between the sun and earth’s surface) leads
nature to create dissipative structures that
interact with a system and its surroundings
Evolution of Natural Systems
These self-organizing structures facilitate or
accelerate the dissipation of energy through the
formation of autocatalytic feedback cycles
Since nature uses a lot of energy to build and
maintain these structures, it would benefit to
gain more energy (through this feedback
mechanism), creating more hierarchical
structures that need more energy
Evolution of Natural Systems
Over time, biogeophysical systems (or complex
ecosystems) evolve that capture, use, and
dissipate more of the available solar and earth
deep heat energy
Eventually life, and later, human culture emerge
that further accelerate this process of dissipation
Evolution of Natural Systems
Process is not gradual, linear, or lead to
equilibrium
Instead it fluctuates between rapid energy
dissipation, followed by longer periods of
renewal and storage
or likewise, there are pulsing patterns between the
building of energy storages, followed by the
autocatalytic consumption and dissipation of energy
Evolution of Natural Systems
Maximum (Em)power Principle: [Odum]
“Self-organizing systems disperse energy faster,
maximizing the rate of entropy production by
developing autocatalytic dissipative structures”
Inversely, “Self-organizing systems develop
autocatalytic storages to maximize useful power
transformations”
Evolution of Cultural Systems
Ecosystems self-organize around renewable
energy use (mainly solar energy and earth deep
heat)
Results in pulsing between storage and release of
energy in the form of nutrients and biomass
occurs at multiple spatial and temporal scales
Evolution of Cultural Systems
But in human time scale, we perceive some
storages and resources as:
renewable: water, air, grass
slow-renewable: topsoil, trees
requires many years to return
non-renewable: oil, coal, gas, metals, fossil fuels
Evolution of Cultural Systems
Although all life generally self-organizes around,
pulses, or are restrained (in pop) by these
non/slow/renewable stores of energy and
resources, human culture is particularly unique:
in a short time scale, humans modify, capture and
use additional environmental storages, and later,
create human cultural storages (assets and more
people) through innovation and technology
leads to pop pulsing to current large number
Evolution of Cultural Systems
 With resource intensification through new tech, pop
growth occurs, requiring more energy intake
so for example, foraging (low dissipation of energy) is replaced
by agricultural strategies (higher dissipation of energy) that
capture more energy by utilizing slow, non, and renewables
 However, there is pop stress and pulsing due to limits of
environmental resources
so either pop decrease or resources increase (through more
human labor and new tech)
leads to rise and fall of cultural societies
Evolution of Cultural Systems
 So in more detail…
 Chiefdoms and small states rose and collapsed (pulsed)
with environmental storages of soil, wood, water, and
stone (forage level)
 Some states expanded by building agricultural strategies
that created more energy, but which also exhausted
slow-renewing resources
states became more complex (increase pop, structural diversity,
more tech, storage of assets, etc)
Evolution of Cultural Systems
 Slow renewables were being exhausted and a greater
energy source was needed to support the bigger pop
So new tech accessed storages of non-renewable resources
(fossil fuels, oils, coal) whereby modern states and world
systems could emerge and pulse within its limits
Again, this resulted in greater complexity (as in pop, structural
diversity, military tech, etc) …but again, there is a limit
 So with limited resources, either the pop is forced to
decrease or more resources need to be captured
(through new tech)
Evolution of Cultural Systems
Social Structural Hierarchy:
represented by Division of Labor and 2 types of
consumers:
Elites:
own/control most of capital and natural
assets for production (1st World)
Non-Elites: control very little assets (3rd World)
When use of energy resources increase, Division of
Labor and Social Structural Hierarchy increase
As social hierarchy increases, gap in assets control
increases between Elites and Non-Elites
Evolution of Cultural Systems
Dimensions of Division of Labor and Social Structural
Hierarchy:
1. Increase control over resources and system processes
means greater hierarchical position
2. With increase hierarchy, there is smaller number of
individuals within that level
3. …and longer turnover times (last longer)
4. With greater total energetic resources, there’s greater
division of labor
Simulation
Simulation = “Limited Resources and the Rise
and Fall of World Civilizations”
World scale simulation with focus on new tech
and world pop size
Fig 1: Simple model of culture, people, and nature
Fig 2: Diagram for simulation
Humans make new tech to use greater natural resources
leads to depletion of limiting slow and non renewables
creates pop stress and collapse of world civilizations
more tech innovations, leads to pop expansion and assets
Simulation
(Fig. 1)
Simulation
(Fig. 2)
Simulation
Fig 3, 4, 5: Simulation runs
Different results when initial conditions and
efficiencies are varied (such as increase in coal
storage or decrease in agricultural efficiency)
Demonstrates process of self-org associated with
people, culture, and limited energetic resources
• non-linear expansion and contraction of civilizations
Simulation
(Fig. 3)
Fig. 3.1
Fig. 3.2
Fig. 3.3
Fig 3.4
Simulation
(Fig. 4)
Simulation
(Fig. 5)
Simulation
Fig. 3-5:
Similarities:
Agricultural system established first in
efficiency
then metal-using agriculture
then coal societies
then oil and gas societies
Simulation
Fig. 3-5:
Similarities:
storages of slow and non-renewable
resources decreased continuously with each
change in system (fig. 3.2)
storages of natural assets decreased as
world pop increased (fig 3.3)
Simulation
Fig. 3-5:
Similarities:
world pop increased as total world assets
increased and natural storages decreased
together
world pop decreased as storages of nonrenewable sources and natural storages
decreased to a critical level
Simulation
Fig. 3-5:
Difference:
In runs 1 and 3, both world pop and world
assets pulsed more than once
suggests that before non-renewable storages
depleted, a critical threshold of pop, assets, and
environ. storages was reached
• led to collapse, rebuilding, and final collapse as nonrenewables depleted
Concluding Remark
 Today:
 World oil storage will reach peak within next few
decades
 Period of energy contraction b/ diminishing returns on
fossil fuel use
 Not much great new tech for more non-renewable
resource capture
 Our pop growth is decreasing
 Perhaps more need for recycling and environment
conservation
Le Fin
Download