TOM ABEL Self-Organization of Cultural-Natural Systems Shenin Mesdaghi Anthro 179a Prof. White UCI Basic Background Info Apply complexity theory to the evolution of biological and cultural systems Evolution is a multi-scaled, hierarchical process that involves biological evolution and… at larger scales: the self-organization of ecosystems, and at smaller scales: physical/chemical selection Humans self-organize and pulse (expand and contract) within limits of the available resources of the environment try to analyze/understand human cultural patterns within nature through the context of thermodynamics and dissipative structures Thermodynamics = study patterns of energy change 1st Law: Total Energy of a system and its surrounding is constant energy cannot be created or destroyed 2nd Law: The entropy of a closed system is continually increasing. Entropy in the inner system decreases only if entropy in the outer system increases. entropy = measure of the unavailable energy of a system Evolution of Natural Systems Any change in nature is irreversible, constructive, and non-determinant (2nd law) Thermodynamically, nature self-organizes at hierarchical, multi-scaled levels How does nature become self-organized? Nature organizes itself as it dissipates energy (releases thermal energy) and, consequently, as it forms dissipative structures [Prigogine, Stengers] Evolution of Natural Systems In more detail… the existence of free-floating matter and energy are not purposeful in themselves unless internal factors evolve that “control” or structure them So, the existence of energy gradients (such as between the sun and earth’s surface) leads nature to create dissipative structures that interact with a system and its surroundings Evolution of Natural Systems These self-organizing structures facilitate or accelerate the dissipation of energy through the formation of autocatalytic feedback cycles Since nature uses a lot of energy to build and maintain these structures, it would benefit to gain more energy (through this feedback mechanism), creating more hierarchical structures that need more energy Evolution of Natural Systems Over time, biogeophysical systems (or complex ecosystems) evolve that capture, use, and dissipate more of the available solar and earth deep heat energy Eventually life, and later, human culture emerge that further accelerate this process of dissipation Evolution of Natural Systems Process is not gradual, linear, or lead to equilibrium Instead it fluctuates between rapid energy dissipation, followed by longer periods of renewal and storage or likewise, there are pulsing patterns between the building of energy storages, followed by the autocatalytic consumption and dissipation of energy Evolution of Natural Systems Maximum (Em)power Principle: [Odum] “Self-organizing systems disperse energy faster, maximizing the rate of entropy production by developing autocatalytic dissipative structures” Inversely, “Self-organizing systems develop autocatalytic storages to maximize useful power transformations” Evolution of Cultural Systems Ecosystems self-organize around renewable energy use (mainly solar energy and earth deep heat) Results in pulsing between storage and release of energy in the form of nutrients and biomass occurs at multiple spatial and temporal scales Evolution of Cultural Systems But in human time scale, we perceive some storages and resources as: renewable: water, air, grass slow-renewable: topsoil, trees requires many years to return non-renewable: oil, coal, gas, metals, fossil fuels Evolution of Cultural Systems Although all life generally self-organizes around, pulses, or are restrained (in pop) by these non/slow/renewable stores of energy and resources, human culture is particularly unique: in a short time scale, humans modify, capture and use additional environmental storages, and later, create human cultural storages (assets and more people) through innovation and technology leads to pop pulsing to current large number Evolution of Cultural Systems With resource intensification through new tech, pop growth occurs, requiring more energy intake so for example, foraging (low dissipation of energy) is replaced by agricultural strategies (higher dissipation of energy) that capture more energy by utilizing slow, non, and renewables However, there is pop stress and pulsing due to limits of environmental resources so either pop decrease or resources increase (through more human labor and new tech) leads to rise and fall of cultural societies Evolution of Cultural Systems So in more detail… Chiefdoms and small states rose and collapsed (pulsed) with environmental storages of soil, wood, water, and stone (forage level) Some states expanded by building agricultural strategies that created more energy, but which also exhausted slow-renewing resources states became more complex (increase pop, structural diversity, more tech, storage of assets, etc) Evolution of Cultural Systems Slow renewables were being exhausted and a greater energy source was needed to support the bigger pop So new tech accessed storages of non-renewable resources (fossil fuels, oils, coal) whereby modern states and world systems could emerge and pulse within its limits Again, this resulted in greater complexity (as in pop, structural diversity, military tech, etc) …but again, there is a limit So with limited resources, either the pop is forced to decrease or more resources need to be captured (through new tech) Evolution of Cultural Systems Social Structural Hierarchy: represented by Division of Labor and 2 types of consumers: Elites: own/control most of capital and natural assets for production (1st World) Non-Elites: control very little assets (3rd World) When use of energy resources increase, Division of Labor and Social Structural Hierarchy increase As social hierarchy increases, gap in assets control increases between Elites and Non-Elites Evolution of Cultural Systems Dimensions of Division of Labor and Social Structural Hierarchy: 1. Increase control over resources and system processes means greater hierarchical position 2. With increase hierarchy, there is smaller number of individuals within that level 3. …and longer turnover times (last longer) 4. With greater total energetic resources, there’s greater division of labor Simulation Simulation = “Limited Resources and the Rise and Fall of World Civilizations” World scale simulation with focus on new tech and world pop size Fig 1: Simple model of culture, people, and nature Fig 2: Diagram for simulation Humans make new tech to use greater natural resources leads to depletion of limiting slow and non renewables creates pop stress and collapse of world civilizations more tech innovations, leads to pop expansion and assets Simulation (Fig. 1) Simulation (Fig. 2) Simulation Fig 3, 4, 5: Simulation runs Different results when initial conditions and efficiencies are varied (such as increase in coal storage or decrease in agricultural efficiency) Demonstrates process of self-org associated with people, culture, and limited energetic resources • non-linear expansion and contraction of civilizations Simulation (Fig. 3) Fig. 3.1 Fig. 3.2 Fig. 3.3 Fig 3.4 Simulation (Fig. 4) Simulation (Fig. 5) Simulation Fig. 3-5: Similarities: Agricultural system established first in efficiency then metal-using agriculture then coal societies then oil and gas societies Simulation Fig. 3-5: Similarities: storages of slow and non-renewable resources decreased continuously with each change in system (fig. 3.2) storages of natural assets decreased as world pop increased (fig 3.3) Simulation Fig. 3-5: Similarities: world pop increased as total world assets increased and natural storages decreased together world pop decreased as storages of nonrenewable sources and natural storages decreased to a critical level Simulation Fig. 3-5: Difference: In runs 1 and 3, both world pop and world assets pulsed more than once suggests that before non-renewable storages depleted, a critical threshold of pop, assets, and environ. storages was reached • led to collapse, rebuilding, and final collapse as nonrenewables depleted Concluding Remark Today: World oil storage will reach peak within next few decades Period of energy contraction b/ diminishing returns on fossil fuel use Not much great new tech for more non-renewable resource capture Our pop growth is decreasing Perhaps more need for recycling and environment conservation Le Fin