COSYSMO Application At BAE Systems
Gan Wang
COSYSMO Workshop
23rd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling and ICM Workshop
USC Campus, Los Angeles, CA
Oct. 29 & 30, 2008
©2006 BAE Systems.
COSYSMO Implementation at BAE Systems
• Developed System Engineering Estimation
Model and Process (SEEMaP)
– Estimating end-to-end, system engineering
and integration effort in a system development
program
– Company-wide, common estimating tool
deployed across major sites, lines of business
(LoBs) and operating groups (OGs), including
New Hampshire, San Diego, New Jersey, New
York…
SEEMaP Workbook:
Encapsulating Tool and Process
• Desktop tool, calibrated with historical
program data across LoBs
– With organization and product line-specific
calibrations
• Applied to
– ROM estimates
– Engineering bid & proposal
– Trade studies
2
Early Results Excellent
• Deployed in 2007-2008 to E&IS OG
– Applied to: ROM, bid & proposal, risk analysis
– Mandated use by several organizations
• Outstanding correlation achieved between estimate and
actual in calibrations
• Early experience shows excellent
result:
– Variance with other methods
(bottom-up): 2–25%
– Effort to create estimate: 2-8 hours
SEEMaP (COSYSMO)
Calibration
– Cost saving and cycle time
reduction: 85–95%
– (Bottom-up may take up to weeks)
3
Quantitative Risk Analysis
• COSYSMO provides single-point estimates
– With fixed driver counts and classification
Sizing
Parameters
Degrees of
Reuse and
Difficulties
• Integrating Crystal Ball quantifies the uncertainty and provides quantitative risk
analysis through Monte Carlo Simulation
– Crystal Ball will provide a quantified output range of the various scenarios, with a
probability of occurrence
– A sensitivity analysis provides insight into which inputs most effect the outcome
• Now it is possible to offer (true) 50/50, 80/20, 20/80 risk positions
– Not just to claim them
4
Monte Carlo Simulation Generates an Estimate Distribution
Input
Distribution
Monte Carlo
Simulation
5
In the Works
• Total Engineering Estimation Model and Process (TEEMaP)
– Extending SEEMaP & COSYSMO capabilities to total engineering
– Estimating the total, end-to-end engineering effort in development a system
– Deployment in 2009
• Apply to company LCM Framework
Validate contract
pricing & quick
trades for scope
negotiation
Prepare Proposal
1B
Milestone Reviews
2A
2B
Initial Design
2C
3A
3B
System
Qualification
4
5
In-Field
Support
Prepare Bid/No Bid
Information
TEEMaP
Integration
of System
Phase Reviews
Mobilize
TEEMaP
TEEMaP
Contract
Accepted
TEEMaP
Evaluate technology
insertion, upgrades,
& new opportunities
Production,
Installation and
Commissioning
Develop cost
targets & validation
of total/functional
engineering bids
Design
System
ROM to determine
Cost & Risk positions
relative to PTW
6
Disposal
7
TEEMaP
Develop engineering
baselines and
milestone reviews &
ETCs
SRR
CDR
SDR/PDR
PRR
TRR
6
Questions and Comments
Gan Wang
gan.wang@baesystems.com
703-668-4259
7