The $250,000,000,000 Question!
Why Large Projects Continue to Fail -- with the Same,
Predictable Lawsuits that Follow … All Over the World?
Global IT Technical Debt [Gartner 2010]
2010: Over $500 Billion; By 2015: Over $1 Trillion
2016 USC CSSE Annual Research Review
Warren S. Reid, Managing Director
WSR Consulting Group, LLC
Management, Technology & Litigation Consulting
E-mail: wsreid@wsrcg.com;
Website: www.wsrcg.com;
Office: 818/986-8842
1
Systems Fail Again
&
Again
& Again…
• It’s NOT about:
Hardware, architecture, language, code, technology
• It’s NOT about:
IBM, Oracle, CSC, HP, or SAP
• It’s about:
People – Committed, trained, empowered: team; PM; execs
• It’s about:
Processes – Situational “best” practices w flexibility
• It’s about:
Product – Greatly meets real STK rqts; QA; Maintainable
© 2001-2016 by Warren S. Reid All Rights Reserved
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Some Large System
Realities
Small projects usually succeed; large ones often fail.
• People: The bigger the project : the more important good
management becomes.
• People: E&E; Team Play; Training; Attitude; Commitment
• Process: Early sizing, early risk analysis, and early
parametric estimates are key success factors.
• Process: Change control is a key factor for LS success.
• Process: Quality control is a key factor for LS success.
• Product: The pressure to use shortcuts is > in LS Projs
The major cost drivers vary widely between small and large
applications.
List Created by Capers Jones with additions by Warren S. Reid
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SYSTEMS FAIL: & Continue To Do So!
All size projects
Standish Group: Chaos Study Results 2004 - 2015
Aggregate
2004
2006
2008
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Definition
Succeeded
29%
35%
32%
29%
27%
31%
28%
29%
On-time, on
schedule, target
Failed
18%
19%
24%
22%
17%
19%
17%
19%
Cancelled b4
complete; not used
Challenged
53%
46%
44%
49%
56%
50%
55%
52%
Later, Over budget,
~66% rqmts
Challenged (Average Overruns):
2004: Time: 84% Cost: 56% Requirements delivered: 64%
2012: Time: 74% Cost: 59% Requirements delivered: 69%
Between 2011 - 2015, for Large waterfall projects (ERP),
the failure rate is 42%!!! *2015 CHAOS Report
In my experience, litigated Large-scale projects have even greater
overruns than the challenged project statistics above.
© 2001-2016 by Warren S.
Reid All Rights Reserved
Results are similar to other surveys: e.g., Robbins-Gioia;
Conference Board; KPMG Canada; OASIG; Panorama; etc.
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Same in Virtually Every Litigation … All Over the World!
“He Said … She Said”
CUSTOMER
VENDOR, CONSULT, INTEG.
1. System doesn’t work
1. Customer changed mind
2. Limited functionality
2. Customer kept changing scope
3. System failed in field
3. Client did not do BPR
4. Bad training
4. Customer not properly trained
5. Will Never Work (full of bugs)
5. Only “2-more-mos” Bad data/convert
6. Developer failed @ PM & SIPM
6. Customer failed @ PM/SIPM
7. Bait & Switch
7. Wrong Cust people
8. Promised SDM abandoned
8. Forced SDM abandonment
Oftentimes, BOTH sides are right & contribute to failure – but at different %s
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© 2001-2016 by Warren S. Reid All Rights Reserved
The Balancing Act
Cost
Stakeholder
Expectations
Golden
Triangle
Quality
The Platinum Star
The “Very Risky”
Balancing Act
Schedule
© 2001-2016 by Warren S. Reid
All Rights Reserved
Scope
Risks
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Known Risks BEFORE
Projects Start:
1. People Risks
2. Requirements Risks
3. Technical Risks
4. Project Risks
5. Process Risks
6. Product Risks
Now that you know them:
plan for, mitigate, manage, avoid, delegate them!
© 2001-2016 by Warren S. Reid All Rights Reserved
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Relevance?
Everything Old is New Again!
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Criticality of Systems Maintainability
Calibrating COCOMO II for Projects w High Turnover
Using Funct Size Measures for SW Maintenance
Tradeoff Analysis of Strategies for Sys Qualities
COSYSMO 3.0 Workshop
SW Maintainability by domain/program lang
Agile Fitness Assessment; Resilient Agile
More
© 2001-2016 by Warren S. Reid All Rights Reserved
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The Success Triangle:
On-time, -budget, -target!
(abbreviated)
SUITABLE
PRODUCT
[RELY, RUSE
DFlex; PREC]
“State-of-Art”?; SYSTEM vs. System GL Readiness OCM/BPR
Methodically tested rqmts; Reliable/efficient arch, RTM, RTS, T/O ->Maint
© 2001-2016 by
Warren S. Reid All
Rights Reserved
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
[Team Cohesion]
Prepare/manage: good contract, project est/WBS, $$/sch/scope; QA/STK/Risks, progress, variances CP, OCM
Communicate honestly, openly, timely w actionable status/plans; Make proper use of PSC; PMO; CCB; IV&V
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AFTER YEARS OF EXPERIENCE:
THE PLATINUM ANSWER!
h
d(y)
p
f(y)
:
+ (l)+
2
(c) = P R
© 2001-2016 Warren S. Reid All Rights Reserved
10
AFTER YEARS OF EXPERIENCE:
THE PLATINUM ANSWER!
h
d(y)
p
f(y)
:
+ (l)+
2
(c) = P R
© 2001-2016 Warren S. Reid All Rights Reserved
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