Titan against Titan:
What Technology will Win?
From: Heavily Centralized Control Paradigms
To:
An Increasing Decentralized World via Internet
and Web Technology
John Waclawsky Ph. D.
Services Architecture and Governance
Motorola, Inc.
Agenda
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Commonality vs. Competition
Some Innovation Chemistry
Chemistry Migration Lessons
Innovation Eco-systems Model and Area
of Common Benefit
Goals and Results
Technology Comparisons
Some Challenges …Always Something
New!
Lessons Learned
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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2
Competition and Commonality
Standards vs. De facto
ISO
IETF
ETSI
3GPP
W3C
A Key Standards Perspective:
Common mechanisms are good …for applications too?
1. Some applications can leverage standards …billing etc.
2. Belief: Common control into the application space will facilitate
interoperability, easier application creation, more application
utility and numerous new applications will emerge by extending
commonality. This is a common perspective of IMS/SIP
advocates

BUT: has IMS/SIP led to any new applications?
“differentiation IS the game”.... Geoffrey Moore
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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3
Competition and Commonality (continued)
Standards vs. De facto
de facto: Un-commonality is standard for applications
•Standards typically commoditize products
tend to make products and services look more or less alike
•Standards may be giving competitors some control or even veto power
•Applications don't want to “talk” to each other for business reasons
•Innovators always look beyond standards for ways to lead
Smell Test: Will competition stop?
…a single solution /application / signaling / control / format / data protocol, or
any other common way to serve customers in a non-competitive manner…
Applications drive technology usage, not the selection of
some common protocol or standard.
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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4
Where is Innovation Thriving?
…and what is driving it, …as if we didn’t know!
Consider the extended OSI model
as “semi-permeable membrane
for innovation molecules”!
…a part of the Four Area Innovation Model
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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5
The “extended” OSI Model
The upper three layers are mainly about competitive issues
L10 - Technology Religion
L9 - Politics
Semi-permeable membrane
L8 - Revenue and Profit
L7 - Applications
L6 - Presentation
L5 - Session
L4 - Transport
L3 - Network
L2 - Data Link
Model extended because:
•Accelerating technology changes
•Disruptions and redefinition
•Relentless on-going innovation
•Business decisions are colored by:
•Politics/Ideology,
•Financial considerations
•Technology religion (driven
aspects of a company’s or even
an individual’s personality).
L1 - Physical
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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6
Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
1- System-Based
Religion
L10
Open Competition
3 – Component-Based
Politics
L9
Finance
L8
Telco / Cable co
TITAN s
L7
L6
Internet Technology
TITAN s
L5
L4
L3
L2
7
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
2 – Connectivity Innovation
L1
4 – Connectivity Innovation
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RESULTS: Innovation Movement: Mostly “FROM” the Internet
Restricted Competition
Environment: Telco/Cableco
Open Internet
Environment
L10 - Religion
OSI
Layering
L9 - Politics
ISDN
L8 - Finance
}
SMS
PARLAY
Parlay-X
L7 - Applications
L6 - Presentation
CAMEL/IN
SIP-3GPP
?
L5 - Session
L4 - Transport
GSM/GPRS
L3 - Network
X.25
ATM, DSL
L2 - Data Link
DWDM, EDFA
L1 - Physical
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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}
IM, eMail
VoIP
Web
SIP-IETF
TCP/UDP
Network
Management
IP
Ethernet
8
Innovation Migration Lessons
1. Telco/Cable co's
physical connectivity
2. Internet
services
3. Upper layers: highlight the Telco/Cable co struggle
at services.
4. Lower Layers: Telecom industry innovation has
been centered on basic transmission technologies
(e.g., DWDM, EDFA, DSL, GSM)
5. Sometimes innovation stays within an eco-system
and can be quite successful within it: SMS (what
about IM), SIP (what about non-SIP)
6. Things change over time.
E-mail -> AOL -> Gmail
L10
OSI
L8
LTE
IM, eMail
L7
SMS
L6
L5
VoIP
}
Web
SIP-IETF
?
WiMAX
L4
GSM/GPRS
Internet is willing to eat its own children as well as the
children of others. It isn’t apparent that any telco/cableco’s
innovations are eating any Internet children.
L9
ISDN
SIP-3GPP
Layering
Network
Management
L3
X.25
ATM, DSL
L2
DWDM,
EDFA
L1
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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TCP/UDP
IP
Ethernet
9
Restricted Competition
1- System-Based
Networking
Protocol Layers
Religion L10
Internet Technology is
becoming increasingly
Finance L8
important to the restrictive
competition environment by
L7
providing access to and
L6
interacting with the
L5 incredible number of web
destinations
Benefit by leading
Politics
Benefit by following
Benefit by following
Open Competition
L9
L4
Benefit by following
L3
Area of Common Benefit!
L2
10
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
L1
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Early / Obvious Model Conclusions
 Everyone needs the bottom four layers of the
OSI model
The split is over how to exploit the top of the extended OSI model
 Incentive to follow successful lower layer
standards and, as a result, allow networkconnected products and services to enjoy
access to the widest audience
 Create new standards to extend connectivity
when new technologies emerge or provide ways
to better leverage the internet, such as WiMAX
“connectivity is its own reward” was often echoed by the early
Internet participants, and is embodied in Metcalfe’s law
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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11
Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Politics
L9
GOALS:
•Standardizing communications
Finance
including:
•Interoperability between applications
in their respective vertical markets,
• End-user control
• Total control of application behavior.
L8
Meeting goals rooted in existing
thinking about networking
•A highly-controlled, but muchreduced experimentation environment
•Depressed innovation activity
•From our innovation migration
lessons, it is becoming more apparent
the trend is that the Internet is taking
over
• Standardize communication, NOT
application behavior or control of end users.
• Everyone to benefits from connectivity.
L7
RESULTS:
L6
RESULTS:
GOALS:
L5
L4
L3
L2
• Experimentation for new applications,
services and technology exploded
•Innovation breeding ground spawning
numerous high-market capitalization
companies: Amazon, Google, eBay…
•Enormous wealth engine - February 6th
2006 SIP Forum[1] presentation that
concluded “The Internet is responsible for
the largest creation of shareholder value in
the shortest time in history.”
[1] http://www.sipforum.com/
12
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
L1
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Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
Open Competition
Religion L10
Politics
A recent
example
is SIP
IMS
L9
Will SIP cross-over?
Finance L8
IMS possibilities?
L7
Defacto
L6 Moving this way?
L5
Benefit by following
Benefit by following
Benefit by leading
L4
Area of Common
Benefit
Benefit by following
The standardized lower levels have also helped solve the bootstrap problem for
L3
innovators. These layers facilitate the spread of new, unconventional products and
services at the higher layers of the protocol stack. Via existing standardized lower
L2 and install the software needed to use
networking layers, anyone can now download
such
new innovations driving concepts such as social networking. That's a key reason
13
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
L1 critical mass so quickly.
new innovations can reach
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Restricted Competition
System-Based Innovation
Networking
Protocol Layers
Religion
L10
Politics
System technologies about control:
L9
Finance
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
Control technologies are mainly
desired by companies in the
restrictive competition eco-system
but have little value for the end-user
customers.
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
Other related issues:
1. Infrastructure costs!
2. Privacy concerns!
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
3. Missing services/functions?
L2
Open Competition
Component-Based Innovation
Consider an evolution about relationships
Mash-ups
• Mash-ups
• P2PP2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts
• Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content: Tags
• Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic Scattering
• Network coding
Many of these technologies have
demonstrated considerable end-user value (for
example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many
provide little or no value to the restrictive
competition eco-system.
14
L1
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Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Application vs. No Application
Politics
L9
Is thinking about applications
passé?
Finance
Centralized:
delivered and
controlled by a
server
e.g. IMS and SIP technologies are
designed around an application
infrastructure supporting paradigm
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
Distributed: Built
on demand,
distributed and
controlled by the
end user devices
Mash-ups and P2P technologies
L3
Is current core network controlled thinking
about applications becoming obsolete?
L2
15
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
L1
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P2P (edge to edge)
Anyone can offer
a service to anyone else!
Mainly Involves:
 Sharing of resources by direct
exchange (NO man in the middle!),
 Ability to self organize (NO control from
the middle!),
 Deal with intermittent connectivity (NO
state maintained or master data base in the
middle!),
…of the peers, for the peers, by the peers
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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16
Networking
Protocol Layers
Restricted Competition
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Control: of What? …and How?
Politics
Centralized: IMS
and SIP
L9
If so? …should we run
Finance
L8
Will
IM
be
the
future
Distributed:
P2P
language parsers
control
paradigm?
and
IM
underneath?
L7
Network and
Systems
Management
Concentration of State and
Complexity
Operations
and Control
L6
IMS Core
Walled
Garden
Applications
L5
SIP control plane
L4
Media and Signaling
conversion
Billing and Back Office Functions
L3
We are moving from an early L2technology world where we had
to talk to machines in their language to an emerging world
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
L1
where machines will talk
to us in our language
17
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Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
Open Competition
Religion
L10
Another Example: Circuit Voice vs. VoIP
Politics
L9
What about Lawful Interception (LI)?
Centralized: Circuit
Switched network is
BTW: this is
easy
Finance
L8
L7
all
true for any
kind of traffic
Distributed: VoIP
 IP provides numerous
methods to ensure data
security.
L6
 Data network: Session
Border Controller (SBC)* as L5  no standardized manner
the point of convergence
to distinguish voice packets
for VoIP packets.
 no telling which path the
L4
Implementing LI on SBC is the VoIP
equivalent of wire tapping on a circuit
IP packet will take
switched network.
L3
*SBC is typically a VoIP session aware device that governs the
manner in which VoIP calls are initiated, conducted and
terminated in a network.
 what headers get added.
L2
Decentralization is effecting LI too!
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
L1
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18
Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
System-Based Innovation
Religion
L10
Politics
System technologies about control:
L9
Finance
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
Control technologies are mainly
desired by companies in the
restrictive competition eco-system
but have little value for the end-user
customers.
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
Other related issues:
1. Infrastructure costs
2. Missing services/functions
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
3. Privacy concerns
L2
Open Competition
Component-Based Innovation
Consider an evolution about relationships
• Mash-ups
• P2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts
• Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content: Tags
• Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic
Traffic Scattering
Scattering
• Network coding
Many of these technologies have
demonstrated considerable end-user value (for
example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many
provide little or no value to the restrictive
competition eco-system.
19
L1
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The world isTraffic
increasingly
connected
scattering
What could
end-users see?
Bluetooth(R)
Cable TV
802.11a
Internet
802.11b/g
Digital
Rabbit ears
GSM/GPRS
CDMA
What could
STB’s see?
Satellite TV
IR
TV/Radio
RFID
GSM/GPRS
GPS
CDMA
UWB
UWB
WiMAX
WiMAX
UMTS
UMTS
802.20
802.20
TV / Radio
NFC
NFC
Etc.
Etc.
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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20
Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
System-Based Innovation
Religion
L10
Politics
System technologies about control:
L9
Finance
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
Control technologies are mainly
desired by companies in the
restrictive competition eco-system
but have little value for the end-user
customers.
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
Other related issues:
1. Infrastructure costs
2. Missing services/functions
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
3. Privacy concerns
L2
Open Competition
Component-Based Innovation
Consider an evolution about relationships
• Mash-ups
• P2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts
• Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content: Tags
• Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic Scattering
• Network
Networkcoding
Coding
Many of these technologies have
demonstrated considerable end-user value (for
example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many
provide little or no value to the restrictive
competition eco-system.
21
L1
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Network Coding
• Network coding is a field of information theory and coding theory and
is a method of attaining maximum information flow in a network
• The core notion of network coding is to allow and encourage mixing of
data at intermediate network nodes.
• In contrast to traditional ways to operate a network that try to
avoid collisions of data streams as much as possible
• A receiver sees these data packets and deduces from them the
messages that were originally intended for the data sink.
• This is an elegant principle that implies a plethora of surprising results
http://searchnetworking.techtarget.com/sDefinition/0,,sid7_gci1267914,00.html
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=breaking-network-logjams&SID=mail
Is current core network controlled thinking
about packets becoming obsolete?
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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22
Restricted Competition
Networking
Protocol Layers
System-Based Innovation
Religion
L10
Politics
System technologies about control:
L9
Finance
• IMS
• Quality of Service (QoS)
• Deep Packet Inspection (DPI)
• RST Injection for TCP protocol
• Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)
• Digital Rights Management (DRM)
Control technologies are mainly
desired by companies in the
restrictive competition eco-system
but have little value for the end-user
customers.
L8
L7
L6
L5
L4
L3
Other related issues:
1. Infrastructure costs
2. Missing services/functions
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
3. Privacy concerns
L2
Open Competition
Component-Based Innovation
Consider an evolution about relationships
• Mash-ups
• P2P
• Encryption
• People technology
• Creating: Blogs, user generated content, podcasts
• Connecting: Social networks, virtual worlds
• Collaborating: Wikis and Open Source
• Reacting to others: Forums, Ratings, Reviews
• Organizing content: Tags
• Staying aware: RSS, widgets and Twitter
• Cloud computing (XMPP)
• Traffic Scattering
• Network coding
Many of these technologies have
demonstrated considerable end-user value (for
example, Bit Torrent, Skype, etc.) but many
provide little or no value to the restrictive
competition eco-system.
23
L1
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QoS
How can QoS work today and in the future? ….when you consider…
• Emerging future: overlay techniques (P2P), mash-ups, traffic
scattering, network coding.
• Encryption or use packet-obfuscation
Lowest prioritization for all encrypted traffic? – Privacy is systematically discriminated against.
• Most of the time the SERVERS ARE SLOW and NOT the network.
• Low Utilization is a fundamental part of network design
Redundancy for reliability. Capacity for peak loads. What does it mean to run a link/box at 10%?
• Race with Moore's Law
Link queue can empty faster than you can run instructions to make QoS decisions.
• QoS adds complexity
Fiber capacity shifts bottlenecks from pipes to nodes and because of the enormous fiber speeds
available, adding node queues to the mix of things that need to be QoS configured and managed
doesn't appear to simplify the QoS challenges.
• Where is the ROI?
• etc.
QoS is NOT an adequate substitute for capacity and
potentially makes a bad situation much worse
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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24
At the Heart of the thing known as
“The Internet”
• It’s an environment that fosters experimentation
Clearly "the place" for innovation of communication services
Seems to be about the absence of impediments
The lack of impediments seen in one eco-system and not the
other appears to be making a huge difference in where innovation (and
the associated wealth it generates) will be most successful.
• More experimentation then more luck!
More $$$!
A major part of innovation is what we can call unexpected usage (or luck).
However, the luck seems to be on the Internet side these days.
• Application-independent,
TCP/IP or UDP are the backbones of the end-to-end nature of the Internet.
If history is any guide, a betting man would probably look for the next large market
cap company to be about services and come from the Internet eco-system.
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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25
A Major Challenge for the Restricted
eco-system Technology….
How can any technology which relies on extensive core
network control and takes an application focus and consider
packet information invariant, adapt to overlay techniques
found in P2P networks, traffic scattering, network coding,
the increasing use of encryption, the emergence of cloud
computing, as well as trends related to dynamically
composed and instantiated concoctions (formally known as
applications) at the edge of the network?
The web is becoming “THE” programming development
platform. Now, many view the web as the ultimate
programming platform that helps all of humankind
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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26
Lessons Learned

Early, half-baked is rewarded better



Everyone wants to differentiate their products
People always dream of reaching de facto nirvana
Lock in your customers
 striving for perfect is the enemy of good, and doing so is very
time consuming, very expensive, and easily by-passed
 mine your customer set with derivative products and
advertising;



Politics (or group affiliation) overrides many choices
Economic incentives to succeed in the market are the
major goals tied to differentiation strategies
Technology religion (personality preferences) will
override the benefits of standards to product developers
and people running companies focused on success.
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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27
Conclusions
Which Titan is winning??
Restricted vs. Open – this debate is still
being waged on the technology
battlefield
…The Internet eco-system has spawned
great wealth, a massive number of
jobs and even helped governments to
grow tax revenues across the planet.
Understanding competition dynamics on innovation is critical for any company
trying to anticipate where the technology is going, instead of chasing it
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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28
Advice ….Some Thoughts
It is about winning…..
You should ask for: …the serenity to
accept the things I cannot change, the
courage to change the things I can,
…..(and most importantly)…
…the wisdom to know the difference!
Technology Trends: Titan vs. Titan
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29