ECEN 2060 Lecture 2
August 28,2013
Frank Barnes
Electric Power Plants
2
ECEN2060
Basic Types of Electric Power Generation
Electro Static
Nicola Tesla ~1891
Electro Magnetic Induction – Rotating Machines
Faraday, Pixii, et al – 1850’s
Electro Chemical – Batteries
Alessandro Volta - 1792
Photo Voltaic – Solar Cells
Bell Labs - 1954
Energy and Power
• Energy: amount of work that can be performed by a force
– Various forms: potential, kinetic, chemical, electrochemical, electromagnetic,
nuclear, thermal, …
– Unit: Joule [J] = Watt [W] x second [s]
1 kWh = 1000 Watts x 3600 seconds = 3.6 million Joules
• Power: rate at which work is performed or energy is transmitted
– Unit: Watt [W]
– Electric power: voltage [Volts] x current [Amps]
• Example: Human (adult)
– Daily energy intake (as food): 8 MJ = 2.2 kWh
– Average power: 2.2 kWh/24 h = 93 W
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World Energy Consumption and Electricity Generation
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/highlights.html
x1012
x1015
BTU = “British thermal unit” (traditional unit of energy), amount of energy needed to heat 1
pound of water by 1oF
5
1 BTU = 1055 J = (1055/3600) Wh = 0.293 Wh
ECEN2060
Recent Changes In Power Generation
• 1
6
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Energy Conversions
Laws of thermodynamics:
Energy conversions are possible, but losses (as thermal energy or
heat) are inevitable
Chemical
(e.g. fossil
fuels)
Nuclear
Loss
Heat
Loss
Kinetic
Loss
Kinetic
(hydro, wind)
Electromagnetic
(light)
Loss
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Electricity
Easy to
transmit and
easy to use
for a wide
range of
purposes
Do something
useful
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Electrical Energy Efficiency
Key energy efficiency opportunities
• Lighting
• Heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems
• Power for fast-growing computing and communication
infrastructure
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Energy Efficient Lighting
• Efficacy of various lighting technologies
• Electric discharge lamps: the need for ballasts
• Operation and design of electronic ballasts
• Trends in solid-state
(LED) lighting
Efficiency 63
Lumens/watt
10
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Electrical Energy and National
Domestic Product
11
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Per capita Energy Use: USA, NY, CA
12
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Electrical Prices
13
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Electrical Prices (2008-2013)
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Fossil Fuel Costs
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Fossil Fuel Costs (2008-2013)
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17
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Problems for 21st Century Engineers
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Problems for 21st Century
Engineers
Peak Coal
A coal power plant
Worldwide possible coal production
TOE = “Ton (1000 kg) of Oil Equivalent”
1 TOE = 40 Million BTU = 42 GJ
ECEN2060
19
Problems for 21st Century Engineers
• Transportation accounts for
28% of the total energy
consumption in the U.S.
• 93% of this energy comes
from oil
ECEN2060
Peak Oil
20
Some History
• 1. Volta, Galvani
• 2.Fariday, Maxwell, Hertz, Marconi,
• Many Others.
• 3. Edison Lighting , replacement for gas lamps
• 4. The development of electric motors
– William Sturgeon electro magnet 1825
– Zenobe Gramme motor 1873
– Show figures
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ECEN2060
Electrical Energy Engineering
• In the late 19th century Electrical Engineering started the
revolution in generation, transmission and distribution of Electric
Power
Nikola Tesla
Tesla’s polyphase ac power distribution, and motors/generators based on rotating magnetic field
• In the 20th century, Electrical Engineering revolutionized
Communication and Computing
William Shockley, John Bardeen,
Walter Brattain
Transistor, Bell Labs, Dec 1947
2007 quad-core processor, more than
500 million transistors
• Electrical Engineering is now at the core of many existing and
emerging green energy technologies
22
ECEN2060
The Evolution of the Electric GRID
• Thomas Edison
– Established the Edison Electric Light Co with financing from J.P. Morgan and the Vanderbilts in
1878
– Patented a long lasting light bulb with “a carbon filament” in 1880
– Patented a distribution system for electricity in 1880
– Founded the first investor owned electric utility in 1882, in NYC - supplied electricity to 59
subscriber customers for electric lighting
– Installed a street lighting program in Roselle New Jersey in 1883
– By 1887 Edison had set up 121 power grids around the US
– Throughout the 1890’s the battle between Edison and Westinghouse (DC vs. AC power) raged.
AC won out because of the better efficiency of AC power systems.
• Electrification of the country became a national priority (TVA,
Columbia River, etc) in the 1920’2 / 30’s
• Optimization of the networks, loads, generators, controls,
infrastructure were ongoing.
• Regulation became a necessity as more and more of the population
became dependent on the grid.
Some History
The Edison 1882 vs Westinghouse 1886
The AC-DC fight.
– See Bernstein “The Grand Success” IEEE Spectrum 1973 Vol 10, No 2. In
spite of the politics AC won out because of the ability of the transformer
to change voltages cheaply and the lower line losses at high voltage and
lower currents. This lead to the usefulness of longer transmission lines
and central power plants
The power P is given by
P = I V cos θ
and the Losses are given by Pl = I2 R
Where I is the current, V is the voltage or potential
R is the resistance, and θ is the phase angle between the voltage and current
for a sinusoidal signal
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ECEN2060
AC Transmission Lines
1. 3kV line in Oregon from Willamette River to Portland
1890
2. A mine in Telluride Colorado Kept it from going broke.
3. Samuel Insull and the concept of regulated utilities.
Many customers distributed so as to complement the day
and night loading to pay the large capital costs.
4. The value of a monopoly with minimum number of
wires. Need to have it regulated to keep from
bankrupting the users. Need for public investors for the
large capital costs.
25
ECEN2060
Some History
3. Led to the very rapid growth of the use of electric
power with the economies of scale going to large
generation facilities and long transmission lines and
low cost transformers.
4. A question today is with the decreased cost of
inverters to go from one voltage to the next both
DC to DC and AC to DC and DC to AC, and the
decreasing cost of solar cells and wind energy have
the location of the economies of scale shifted in
location?
26
ECEN2060
Regulations
A. The advantages of a single supplier of electric power for a
given geographic area lead to monopoly but this in turn lead
to a need for regulation and the establishment of public
utility commissions, PUCs.
B. Large Utility Holding Companies up until 1929 made large
amounts of money with pyramid schemes and may losses in
the crash.
C This lead to the Public Utility Holding Co. Act of 1935 for gas
and electricity and also the security exchange commission.
SEC
This broke up many companies and limit their size and
geographic area.
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Public Utility Act of 1978
1. Driven by the oil shock of 1973 from the middle east
2. Provided incentive for energy efficiency, renewable
energy sources and small gas fired turbines.
3. The Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act of 1978
A. Allows for Independent power producers to connect to
the utility owned grid so that they did not have to
provide all there own power and back up.
B. It required utilities to purchase excess power from
qualified sources at a just and reasonable price base
on avoided costs to produce that power by the utility.
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Energy Policy Act 1992
1. Opened the grid to more competitors of any size and
using any fuel and to sell it anywhere.
2. This lead to transmission capacity problems where the
owners favored their own generation sources.
3. This lead to FERC order 888 which tried to eliminate
anticompetitive practices and the creation of
Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional
Transmission Organizations (RTOs). There are now 7 of
these.
These balance the loads and generation on an hourly and 15minute basis and set the whole sale price of power.
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Types of Utilities and Non-utilities
1. Investor owned utilities: Xcel, AEP, PG&E, etc.
2. Federally owned utilities: TVA,U.S. Army, Bureau of
Reclamation, Bonneville Power Administration etc.
3. Publicly owned utilities (municipal): Colorado Springs ,
Ft. Collins, Boulder (?)
4. Rural Electric Cooperatives
5. Independent Power Producers.
These do not operate transmission and distribution systems
and do not have the same regulatory constraints. They can
generate power for their own use and sell to the grid. IPP’s as
of 2010 generate about 40% of the electric power
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Competitive Markets
1. Opening up ownership of generation,
transmission and distribution and reduction of
regulation with objective of reducing price and
adding renewable energy.
2.California had high priced electricity and took the
lead to allow competition.
3. It worked for awhile until Enron and about 30
others figured out how to make more money by
restricting the amount of power they generated.
4. This lead to rolling blackouts and high prices.
Peak at $1500/MWh vs < $5/MWh
31
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The Fixing by Controlling the
Generation Capacity in California
• 1. Total cost to California estimated at $71
billion.
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Power Generation
• 1. Primary Sources
– A. Sun
– B. Radioactive Decay
– C. Tides, (Moon)
2. Secondary Sources by conversion from Solar
A. Photosynthesis to Wood, coal, oil, natural gas, then
conversion to heat , mechanical, electrical
B. Hydro, Wind
Conversion from mechanical to electrical
C. Solar to Electrical by photovoltaic cells, PV
D. Solar to Electrical by Thermal Electric Junctions
3. Nuclear Power plants conversion of heat to mechanical to
electrical
33
ECEN2060
Basic Motor or Generator
B

V    E  dl   
 dS  
t
t
34
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Electrical to Mechanical Energy
Converter and Reverse.
35
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Additional Geometries
36
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Induced Voltage
37
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Basic Steam Power Plant
38
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Carnot’s Diagram
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Some Fundamentals
• Carnot Cycle Limits Efficiency of Heat Engines
• Start with Heat Energy QH at high temperature
• Extract work W and reject heat Qc at low
temperature
• The conservation of energy requires that
QH = W + Qc
Qc
  1
• The thermal efficiency
QH
• Define Entropy Loss S  Q which increase
T
• Therefore
Tc
 max  1 
TH
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ECEN2060
Some Limits
1. Peak temperature of Materials
Fe: 1535oC & Tungsten: 3370o C
2. Calculations for Temperature in Kelvin Tk = 273 + Tc
3. Boiling water limits seem to be about 600o C
therefore η < 66% (typically 33% to 42%)
4. Rankine Cycle includes Change of state from Vapor
to fluid ( most coal plants)
5. Brayton Cycle stays as a gas. (Gas turbines)
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Heat Rate
• 1. Define Heat Rate as power output divided by the
efficiency.
• 2. 1BTU/kwh =1.0055 kJ/kWh
• 3. Coal fired plants Typically 10,800 kJ/kWh
– Current peak around η =42% and Heat rate of
8571KJ/kWh or 9042 BTU/kWh
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ECEN2060
Example
1. Assume: Heat rate = 9042 BTU/kWh, Carbon
content of the Coal 25 kgC/GJ (GJ=109 joules) &
10% of the losses up the stack and 90% to cooling
water.
𝐵𝑇𝑈/𝑘𝑤ℎ
2. Find the Efficiency η= 3412
= 42%
9042𝐵𝑇𝑈/𝑘𝑤ℎ
3. Find the Rate of CO2 Emissions
9042𝐵𝑇𝑈 1055
Carbon Emissions =25𝑘𝑔𝑐
x
x 𝐵𝑇𝑈 = 0.2273kgc/kWh
𝑘𝑤ℎ
109
CO2 weight 12 + 2 x16 = 44
44𝑔𝐶𝑂2
so CO2 emissions =0.2273𝑘𝑔𝑐
x
= 0.833kg CO2 /kWh
𝑘𝑤ℎ
12𝑔 𝐶
43
ECEN2060
Example
4. Find the added cost for a CO2 tax of $30 per metric
ton (1000kg) in cents/kWh
• 0.98kg CO2/kWh x $30/1000kg = $0.0294/kWh
5.Find the once through flow rate of cooling (gal/kWh)
to limit the cooling water temperature to 20o F
58% of the energy is wasted and 90% of that goes into
the water
0.9 𝑥.58 𝑥9042𝐵𝑡𝑢/𝑘𝑊ℎ
Cooling water =1𝐵𝑡𝑢
= 28.3gal/kWh
𝑙𝑏
𝐹 𝑥20𝐹 𝑥 8.34𝑙𝑏 /𝑔𝑎𝑙
6. If we use evaporative cooling how much water do
need? Make up water =0.9𝑥0.58𝑥9042
= 3.93gal/kWh
144𝑥8.34
44
Capacity Factor
Define Capacity Factor, CF: as the fraction of the
rated power, PR , at full capacity generated on an
annual basis.
Annual energy in
(kWh/yr) = PR(kW)x 8760hr/yr x CF
Typical plant operates about 70% of the time.
45
ECEN2060
Variable Loads
The loads fluctuate with time of day and minute by minute. The
power output varies with speed of machine, speed up with drop
in power and slow down with increase.
46
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\
Control
1. Need to control voltage, current, phase and
frequency with changing loads and variations in
generator output power to match generation to
load.
2. The voltage and frequency outputs change with
the speed of the generator. An increased load
results increase torque and decrease in generator
speed and thus frequency and power output.
3. Control by increasing/decreasing steam flow,
4. Short term fluctuations are smoothed by inertia
of the large machines.
47
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Generator Control System
48
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Control
1. Target is to control frequency to between 59.98Hz
and 60.02Hz. If you get below 59.7Hz, you want to
shed load to prevent damage to motors etc.
2. Different generators have different ramp rates
– Coal fired plants may take a day or two build up from a
cold start. They are not designed for rapid cycling.
Expansion of the Cherokee Boiler 20 + inches from cold
to hot. +/- 10% not so bad and faster.
– Gas fired generators 10 to 12minutes. Idyll
requires 30 to 50% of the fuel.
– Solar and wind can change in seconds or less.
49
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A More Complete Coal Fired Generator
System
50
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Some Characteristics
1. These are big plants: 400MW to 700MW.
2. Big difference between old and new coal plants. 33%
vs. 42% efficiency. Improved by raising temperature
from 564o C to 600o C and pressure from 260 bar to 300
bar. Two or three stage turbines w/ 90% efficiency,
generator 90% + (1 bar is a little less than an
atmosphere = 0.1 MPa )
4. Post combustion capture 20 to 30% loss in output.
Hg with activated carbon, Particulates with electrostatic
precipitator. SO2 with limestone and H2O
51
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Combined Cycle Gas
52
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Some Characteristics
1. Control NOx with lowering temperature of the
flame.
2. Fluidized bed can capture sulfur
3. Integrate coal gasification, syngas CO,H, H2O,
CH4 , with combine cycle to get high efficiency.
Can clean up S, CO2, N2 more easily
CO2 Emissions
• New EPA rules will require all new to produce Coal
fired plants to produce less than 1000 lb/MW of CO2
– Current Coal fired plants produce 1769 lb/MW of CO2
– Gas fired plants produce 800 to 850lb/MW of CO2
– New EPA rules will require Carbon capture on coal fired
plants and the cost currently mean they will not be built.
– However, it is likely that the low priced coal in the US will
be shipped overseas.
– Current prices for natural gas are between $1.90/Kft3 and
$2.50/Kft3 . Before fracking (i.e. shale gas discovery),
prices were about $6 to $12/Kft3
54
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Gas Turbine
55
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Gas Fired Turbines
• Alstom New turbine: 450 MW ramp up in 10
minutes from less than 20% of maximum load at
standby
• Industry standard: 40 to 50 % at standby
• Efficiency 40% Combined cycle 60%
• Mitsubishi by working at higher temperature
17000C gets to 62 to 65% efficiency.
• GE gets 38.5% in simple cycle combined cycle
58.5% on 648MW
• Hitachi same ball park
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ECEN2060
Gas Turbine
1. The compressor can take up to 2/3 of the
power.
2. Small turbines about 20% efficient
3. Larger ones over 10MW 30% using
aero-derived turbines to 45% efficiency.
4. Using the exhaust heat improves efficiency
Combined Cycle Plant
ECEN2060
58
Heating Values for Some Fuels
59
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Nuclear Power
60
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Nuclear Power
61
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Nuclear Power
62
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Distributed Generation
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The Power Distribution System
1. The large size of this system in the US
A. 275,000mi of high voltage transmission lines.
B. 950,000 MW of generation capacity
C. Serves 300 million people
D. Cost over $1trillion
E. Value ? Large systems smooth out the loads and
provide back up for loss of a generator or repairs.
64
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Typical Load Profile
65
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US Electric Power System
• Inexpensive
(about 10 ¢/kWh)
• Taken for granted
66
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A more detailed view
hnks
Fr
67
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Transmission Connections
68
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Typical Transmission and Distribution
Lines
69
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Distribution Network
70
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Conventional Power Systems
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Industry Segmentation – 5 Groupings
• Public Utilities
– Non-profit, government
owned (state & local)
– Financed by General
Obligation or Revenue Bonds
– PUC governance
– Profits are not subject to
Federal Income Tax
– Distribute power supplied from the grid, but a few generate
& transmit too
– 61.5 % of the number of companies
– 10.5% of the generation capacity
– 15.0% of the revenues
– 14.5% of the customer base
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
72
Industry Segmentation – 5 Groupings
• Investor – Owned
– Regulated / franchised monopolies for defined geographic
areas
– Stock holder owned companies governed by a B.O.D.
– Operate in all states except Nebraska
– Provide generation, transmission & distribution - e.g. Excel
Energy
– 6% of the number of companies
– 39% of the generation capacity
– 60% of revenues
– 68% of the customer base
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
73
Industry Segmentation – 5 Groupings
• Co-ops
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Owned by the customers
Operate in 47 of the 50 states mostly in rural areas
Most buy power from the grid & distribute
27% of the number of companies
5% of the generation capacity
11% of the revenue
13% of the customer base
• Federal
– Owned by US Government
– Primarily generation - 200 hydroelectric plants
– 6.7% of the generation capacity
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
74
Industry Segmentation – 5 Groupings
• Non-Utility
– CHPs
• Use waste heat from centralized heating plant
(industrial cooking, firing, etc.), power sold to grid
– QFs
• Small generation facilities facilitated by PURPA.
Sell to Grid
– IPPs
• Independent Power Producers that only
supply to the grid, much of it to cover peak loads
– 1738 entities are reported but only 181
included in the EIA statistics
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
75
2013 Generating Capacity – 1,153 GW
Generatiion Capacity - 2013 - (MW)
600000
484623
500000
420117
400000
300000
200000
114958
100000
58030
75420
Co-Ops
Federal
0
Public Utilities Investor Owned
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
Non Utility
76
2013 Output – 4.2M GWhrs
Output - 2013 - (GWhrs)
1800000
1600000
1400000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1619991
435370
209075
Public
Utilities
6/27/2016
1617663
Investor
Owned
Co-Ops
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
285844
Federal
Non Utility
77
2013 Customer Base – 144M
Number of Customers - 2013 (M)
120
98.61
100
80
60
40
21.09
18.6
20
0.04
6.17
0
Public
Utilities
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Investor
Owned
Co-Ops
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
Federal
Non Utility
78
2013 GWhrs Sold – 3.3M
End Customer Demand - 2013 - (GWhrs)
2500000
2038708
2000000
1500000
1000000
576847
413278
500000
225530
43563
0
Public
Utilities
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Investor
Owned
Co-Ops
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
Federal Non Utility
79
2013 Industry Annual Revenue – $370B
Industry Revenue - 2013 - ($M)
250000
220043
200000
150000
100000
54880
52734
40897
50000
1882
0
Public
Utilities
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Investor
Owned
Co-Ops
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
Federal
Non Utility
80
Power Generation By Energy Type
Electric Power Generation by Energy Type - 2012
%
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
37
30
19
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er
m
0.1
0.6
G
eo
W
in
d
Hy
dr
o
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
0.4
O
th
er
3.5
1
Nu
cle
ar
Pe
tro
le
um
Bi
o
M
as
s
NG
Co
al
1.4
So
la
r
7
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Power Sources
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Power Industry Baseline - Summary
A great track record
– The foundation industry in
our economy
– Stable and consistent growth
– Reliable delivery of cheap power
– Consistent ROI’s in the financial market
– Conscientious investment in infrastructure to
match growth in demand
– Highly responsible management
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
83
So Why Change Anything
• Environmental concerns
– Atmospheric carbon impact on climate
– Increasing carbon load from developing
economies & increasing demand
– Increasing costs to mitigate emissions
– Coal is being phased out – too costly to build and operate
• System capacity
– Increasing demand for electric power
– Load peaks / supply valleys
– Retirement of old / obsolete facilities (see next 2 slides)
– NG technology replacing coal at a rapid rate
– What are the long range implications on NG reserves
• System configuration
– Is a large centrally controlled network the most efficient / reliable if
most of the base load generation capacity goes to CCNG?
– Smaller scale production & more localized distribution = reducing
transmission losses (25% of power generated
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84
Aging Statistics on Generation Capacity
• Oldest Plants are hydroelectric
• Coal being retired or refitted at a
rate of 50 -100 per year.
• CCNG is the replacement
technology of choice
• More than 300 plants are
scheduled for decommissioning or
conversion to NG in the next 3
years
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
Type
On Line in 2011
Coal
1436
Nuclear
437
Hydro
133 major (US
gov)
1632 private
Nat Gas
No data
85
So Why Change Anything – contd.
• Operating Costs?
– As fossil fuel supplies deplete,
operating costs will rise
– Current US recoverable coal reserve is 270 years
– Current US Natural Gas supply is 93+ years, but consumption rates
will double in the next 2-5 years
• Social Implications
– How will coal mining industry be impacted
– How will the railroads be impacted
• Life cycles / timing / scale – What to use beyond NG 25 - 50
– 10 to 20 years to deploy new technology fully
– 25 - 50 year longevity for new technologies
– Long range planning and execution are a necessity.
– Quarter to quarter thinking simply won’t allow the right decisions
to be made. Who is doing that today?
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86
Types of Generation Facilities - Coal
Type - C O2 / S ox / NOx E mis s ions
P lant C harac teris tic s
P lant C os ts (2012$)
Number
Nominal
Overnig ht F ixed O&M
Variable
NE MS R equired
C apac ity Heat R ate
C apital C os t ($/kW- O&M C os t
(MW) (B tu/kWh)
C os t
yr)
($/MWh) Input P er G W
Total
C os t
$B
C oal - 2,244 / 13 / 6 lbs / kMWhr
S ingle Unit Advanced P C
650
8,800
$3,246
$37.80
$4.47
N
1.54
4.994
Dual Unit Advanced P C
S ingle Unit Advanced P C with C C S
1,300
650
8,800
12,000
$2,934
$5,227
$31.18
$80.53
$4.47
$9.51
Y
Y
0.77
1.54
2.257
8.042
Dual Unit Advanced P C with C C S
1,300
12,000
$4,724
$66.43
$9.51
N
0.77
3.634
600
8,700
$4,400
$62.25
$7.22
N
1.67
7.333
1,200
8,700
$3,784
$51.39
$7.22
Y
0.83
3.153
520
10,700
$6,599
$72.83
$8.45
N
1.92
12.690
S ingle Unit IG C C
Dual Unit IG C C
S ingle Unit IG C C with C C S
•
PC = Pulverized Coal
– Pellet sized coal fed to burners to make steam which drives a steam turbine generator set
– Lowest Operating Cost , Lowest Installation Cost of coal alternatives
– Dirtiest of the major sources
– Dual Unit preferred because they share common buildings and condensate facilities
•
IGCC = Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
– Coal is converted into a gas, then burned in a gas turbine to turn a generator
– Waste heat generates steam to run a steam turbine – most efficient conversion of coal to electricity
– Adds $900M to Dual PC facility construction, $2.75 per MWhr to production cost and increases fixed
OH
•
CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage
– Adds $1.4B to construction for a dual units
– More than doubles operating cost and fixed OH
– Emissions from burning or conversion of coal are removed from effluent and stored
87
•6/27/2016
IGCC with CCS – Cleanest, but most expensive
ofLecture
coal options
per GW
ECEN 2060
on Change
Types of Generation Facilities – Natural Gas (NG)
T ype - C O 2 / S ox / NO x E m is s ions
P lant C harac teris tic s
Nom inal
C apac ity Heat R ate
(MW) (B tu/kWh)
S ingle Unit IG C C with C C S
P lant C os ts (2012$)
Num ber
O vernig ht F ixed O &M
Variable
NE MS R equired
C apital C os t ($/kW- O &M C os t
C os t
yr)
($/MWh) Input P er G W
T otal
C os t
$B
520
10,700
$6,599
$72.83
$8.45
N
1.92
12.690
C onventional C ombined C ycle
620
7,050
$917
$13.17
$3.60
Y
1.61
1.479
Advanced C C
400
6,430
$1,023
$15.37
$3.27
Y
2.50
2.558
Advanced C C with C C S
340
7,525
$2,095
$31.79
$6.78
Y
2.94
6.162
85
10,850
$973
$7.34
$15.45
Y
11.76
11.447
210
9,750
$676
$7.04
$10.37
Y
4.76
3.219
10
9,500
$7,108
$0.00
$43.00
Y
100.00
710.800
Natural G as - 1135 / .1 / 1.7 lbs / kWhr
C onventional C T
Advanced C T
F uel C ells
•
CC = Combined Cycle
– Gas turbine burns NG to turn a generator
– Waste heat generates steam to run a steam turbine
– Installation cost comparable to dual coal PC, operating cost lower than coal
– Displaced all oil fired and many coal fired plants
– Half of the CO2 emissions & 1/3 the NOx emissions compared to coal. Negligible SOx
•
CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage
– Adds 3.6B to construction cost per generator
– More than doubles operating cost
•
CT = Centralized Turbine
– Used for peak generation capacity only
– Can be turned on and off quickly & efficiently
– Triple the operating cost of CCNG facilities
6/27/2016
ECEN 2060
Lecture on Change
– 2 x more expensive than conventional
CCNG
88
Types of Generation Facilities – Big Capital
T ype - C O 2 E m is s ions
P lant C harac teris tic s
Nom inal
C apac ity Heat R ate
(MW) (B tu/kWh)
P lant C os ts (2012$)
Num ber
O vernig ht F ixed O &M
Variable
NE MS R equired
C apital C os t ($/kW- O &M C os t
C os t
yr)
($/MWh) Input P er G W
T otal
C os t
$B
Uranium - 0 lbs / kWhr
Dual Unit Nuclear
2,234
N/A
$5,530
$93.28
$2.14
Y
0.45
2.475
C onventional Hydroelectric
500
N/A
$2,936
$14.13
$0.00
N
2.00
5.872
P umped S torage
250
N/A
$5,288
$18.00
$0.00
N
4.00
21.152
G eothermal – Dual F las h
50
N/A
$6,243
$132.00
$0.00
N
20.00
124.860
G eothermal – B inary
50
N/A
$4,362
$100.00
$0.00
N
20.00
87.240
Hydroelec tric - 0 lbs / kWhr
G eothermal - 0 lbs / kWhr
•
Nuclear – Thermonuclear generation of Steam
– Low operating cost
– Installation per GW are comparable to coal
– Issues with spent rod waste disposal, no atmospheric emission
– Historic concerns over safety
•
Hydroelectric – Gravitational fall of water to turn generator
– Construction costs comparable to coal (excluding land for retention), $0.00 fuel costs
– Limited to areas where continuous flow of water is available over a suitable drop in elevation
– Permitting is difficult because of land inundation
– Issues in some watersheds over fish reproduction (e.g. Columbia River Project and salmon fisheries)
•
Geothermal – Recovery of earth’s core heat to generate steam
– Construction costs very high, payback on energy cost is measured in centuries
89
– Limited to areas with access to geothermal
6/27/2016
ECEN 2060sources
Lecture on Change
Types of Generation Facilities – Alternative
T ype - C O 2 E m is s ions
P lant C harac teris tic s
Nom inal
C apac ity Heat R ate
(MW) (B tu/kWh)
P lant C os ts (2012$)
Num ber
O vernig ht F ixed O &M
Variable
NE MS R equired
C apital C os t ($/kW- O &M C os t
C os t
yr)
($/MWh) Input P er G W
T otal
C os t
$B
Wind - 0 lbs / kWhr
O ns hore W ind
100
N/A
$2,213
$39.55
$0.00
Y
10.00
22.130
O ffs hore W ind
400
N/A
$6,230
$74.00
$0.00
Y
2.50
15.575
100
N/A
$5,067
$67.26
$0.00
Y
10.00
50.670
P hotovoltaic
20
N/A
$4,183
$27.75
$0.00
N
50.00
209.150
P hotovoltaic
150
N/A
$3,873
$24.69
$0.00
Y
6.67
25.820
B iomas s C C
20
12,350
$8,180
$356.07
$17.49
N
50.00
409.000
B iomas s B F B
50
13,500
$4,114
$105.63
$5.26
Y
20.00
82.280
50
18,000
$8,312
$392.82
$8.75
N
20.00
166.240
S olar - 0 lbs / kWhr
S olar T hermal
B iomas s - > than c oal
Munic ipal S olid Was te > than c oal
Municipal S olid W as te
•
Wind – Atmospheric air flow drives generator
– Issues with inconsistent output due to lack of adequate wind energy. Needs a storage solution
– Must be located where prevailing winds are continuous
– Capital costs are high because of relative low volumes of production
– Fuel cost is $0.00
•
Solar – Photovoltaic generation in semiconductor film
– Requires large surface areas to accumulate energy and convert to electricity
– Issues with inconsistent output due to sun cycle. Needs a storage solution
– Installation costs are very high because of low volume production
– Fuel costs $0.00
•
Biomass & Municipal waste – Burn organic material to generate steam
– Dirty and expensive to set up, Does
reduce landfill contributions
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
90
Summary of Tradeoffs Between Technologies
Type
Capital Cost
($B / GW)
Ops Cost
($/MWhr)
Fixed Cost
($/kWyr)
CO2
Emissions
Issues
Dual Coal
wo CCS
2.257
4.47
31.18
2.1 lbs / kWhr
Particulate emissions
SOx and NOx emissions
Dual Coal w
CCS
3.634
9.51
66.43
2.1 lbs / kWhr
Lower particulate carbon
Dual IGCC
wo CCS
3.153
7.22
51.39
2.1 lbs / kWhr
CCNG
wo CCS
1.479
3.60
13.17
1.2 lbs /kWhr
CCNG
w CCS
6.162
6.78
31.79
1.2 lbs / kWhr
Nuclear
2.475
2.14
93.28
0 lbs / kWhr
Huge political resistance
Disposal of waste rods
Wind - on
shore
22.130
0.00
39.55
0 lbs / kWhr
No economy of scale for
production of turbines
Solar – PV
150 MW
25.820
0.00
24.69
0 lbs / kWhr
No economy of scale for
production of solar panels
6/27/2016
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
91
Tradeoff Analysis - Issues
• “Clean” power is very expensive to set up.
and operate
• Alternative energy types are not mature
– Storage for generation black outs
– Need volume production to drive down unit cost
– Reliability and maintenance learning curves are steep
• Lowest cost systems now are CCNG plants
• Coal is already being replaced with CCNG
– Long term NG energy supplies will be an issue
• Long term CO2 impacts will be a concern
– Displacement of millions of people due to sea level rise
– Reduction of arable land due to draught and repopulation pressures
– How will these impacts be factored into the costs of energy
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
92
Significant Changes Have Occurred in the Industry
• Conversion to natural gas fuels
• Large investments in air quality
improvements especially in coal fired plants
• Rate deregulation in the 1990’s failed
– ENRON manipulation of supply
• Grid management system (Smart Grid) helps minimize
crashes, balances loads, reduces excess capacity
• Localized pockets alternative
– Wind
– Solar
– Bio Mass
• A lot effort has gone in to load optimization
– Lighting
– HVAC
– Motors
6/27/2016
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
93
3 Sides of the Energy Argument
• Nothing needs to change
–
–
–
–
Global warming is a farce. Political agenda in Wash D.C.
Large sums are being spent on debunking the data / science
Fostered by those with a big stake in the present economics
Use cheapest sources of energy (CCNG)
• We are running out of time
– Intolerable climate change due to green house gases
– Eliminate all fossil fuel consumption
– Energy conservation a strategic imperative
• The system will continue to be governed by economics not politics
– Core issues with alternative sources must be resolved before they can be
deployed. More work is needed
– Investment in alternative sources will be paced by the market
$$$$$$
• New additions must demonstrate technical
and economic competence
• Decisions will be based on costs & ROI
• Investment in Grid management reduces excess capacity
• Replacement and additional capacity will be CCNG
6/27/2016
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
$$$$
$$
$
$$
$$$
$$$$$
94
Scientific / Political / Realities – To the Nay Sayers
• Global warming evidence is not fiction
• How much is caused by human activity and how much is due to natural
phenomenon is unclear
– However the effects of both are additive!
• Legislation on pollution controls at coal fired power plants will
continue to become more stringent
– driving plant cost up for both initial investment and operating costs
– Use of coal for generating electricity will continue to decline
• Converting obsolete capacity to cleaner alternatives is good politics
and good business
– Installing pollution free sources for new capacity is problematic
– The industry has to continue to develop alternatives
– Decisions on which ones fit best will be made on a regional /
company by company basis
• The question is “Who Should Pay for the Development?”
6/27/2016
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
95
Economic Realities – To the Alarmists
• The installed base can not be scrapped in
favor of new power generation alternatives
– $ write off of existing generation ~ $5T - 10T
– $ investment required for the alternatives ~ $20T
– Operating cost differentials favor
new technology - $3 - $10 /MWhr, but
– $12.6B - $42B / yr saving for 4.2M GWhrs
– 595 year payback (best case)
– 2381 year payback (worst case)
• Conversion to new technology
will depend on fixing deficiencies and ROI
– Replacement
– Demand driven incremental capacity
6/27/2016
ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
96
Forecasted New Plants – NG Dominates
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ECEN 2060 Lecture on Change
97
Electrical Energy Efficiency
Key energy efficiency opportunities
• Lighting
• Heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems
• Power for fast-growing computing and communication
infrastructure
98
ECEN2060
Loading Profile in California Summer
1999
99
ECEN2060
Revenue /KWh
100
ECEN2060
Revenue /KWh (May 2013)
101
ECEN2060
US Electricity Flow
T&D (Transmission and Distribution) losses: 1.31/13.83 = 9.5%
Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.doe.gov/ (excellent source of energyrelated data)
102
ECEN2060
103
ECEN2060
104
ECEN2060