Nevada State Climate Office
Douglas P. Boyle
douglasb@unr.edu
Department of Geography
University of Nevada, Reno
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
2015 WY Precipitation
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Precipitation % of Normal
Nevada/California SNOTEL Water Year (Oct 1) to Date Precipitation % of Normal
Owyhee River
Northern Great Basin
83
Apr 16, 2015
68
Water Year (Oct 1)
to Date Precipitation
Basin-wide Percent
of 1981-2010 Average
69
Lower
Humboldt
unavailable *
52
Truckee
Carson
50 - 69%
110 - 129%
130 - 149%
Clover
Valley
83
Eastern
Nevada
48
70 - 89%
90 - 109%
Snake
River
Upper
Humboldt
78
<50%
77
53
Lake
Tahoe
51
48
>= 150%
* Data unavailable
at time of posting
or measurement
is not representative
at this time of year
Walker
Southern Nevada
Provisional data
subject to revision
0
37.5
75
Miles
150
The water year to date precipitation percent of normal represents the
accumulated precipitation found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin
compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on
the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Prepared by:
USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center
Portland, Oregon
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
Douglas P. Boyle
SWE % of Normal
Nevada/California SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal
Owyhee River
Northern Great Basin
37
Apr 16, 2015
17
Current Snow
Water Equivalent
Basin-wide Percent
of 1981-2010 Median
Clover
Valley
26
15
6
Lower
Humboldt
unavailable *
Truckee
Snake
River
Upper
Humboldt
27
<50%
58
Carson
Eastern
Nevada
1
50 - 69%
70 - 89%
0
90 - 109%
110 - 129%
130 - 149%
Lake
Tahoe
16
24
>= 150%
* Data unavailable
at time of posting
or measurement
is not representative
at this time of year
Walker
Southern Nevada
Provisional data
subject to revision
0
35
70
Miles
140
The current snow water equivalent percent of normal represents the
snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin
compared to the average value for those sites on this day. Data based on
the first reading of the day (typically 00:00).
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Prepared by:
USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center
Portland, Oregon
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
Douglas P. Boyle
2015 WY Temperature
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
2014 Warm Temperatures
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Reservoir Status
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
NRCS Volumetric Forecasts
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
U.S. Drought Monitor
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
U.S.D.M – Policy Impacts
2 0 1 5 S e c r e t a r i a l D r o u g h t D e s i g n a t io n s - A l l D r o u g h t
Accuracy of Drought Monitor is important!
Alaska
1:58,102,399
Hawaii
1:19,740,053
S e c r e t a r ia l D r o u g h t D e s ig n a t io n s fo r 2 0 1 5
D isaster Incidents as of A pril 15, 2015
State Boundary
County Boundary
Tribal Lands
U SD A Farm S ervice A gency
Production, E mergencies and C ompliance Division
W ashington, D .C.
April 15, 2015
Primary Counties: 302
Contiguous Counties: 150
1:23,520,203
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Puerto R ico
1:5,592,808
Douglas P. Boyle
Assessing Drought Status
Questions from public about the DM
• Why is ____ D4?
• Why isn’t ____ D4?
• What does D4 mean?
• Is the drought over?
• How much precipitation do we need to end the drought?
• When will that happen?
• Is the drought due to global warming?
• Are we in the beginning (or middle) of a “mega-drought?
CA-NV DM & Water Conditions Discussion
• Discuss latest local water conditions, impacts, actions, and the DM
• Provide a coordinated response to DM authors and others
• Single most valuable resource for NSCO.
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Recommendations to DM Authors
“As of the end of
December, Denio was
above 150% of normal
precipitation while
eastward at
McDermitt it was
closer to 50%”
We need help!
Move to D4
Move to D3
Move to D1
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Information
Large number of weather &
climate products available
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
L.T. Drought Indicator Blend
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
S.T. Drought Indicator Blend
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Information
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Information
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Analysis Tools
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Availability of Observations
How accurate are these products
and tools?
The topography, geology, and
weather patterns in the West
require a large number of real
climate observations to characterize
the spatial and temporal variability.
We have the least number of
climate observations in these areas.
Desperately need more real
observations of climate variables to
understand and assess uncertainty
and product limitations.
We need your help!
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
3-month Temperature Forecast
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
3-month Precipitation Forecast
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle
Seasonal Drought Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
Drought Tendency During the Valid Period
Valid for April 16 - July 31, 2015
Released April 16, 2015
Depicts large-scale trends based
on subjectively derived probabilities
guided by short- and long-range
statistical and dynamical forecasts.
Use caution for applications that
can be affected by short lived events.
"Ongoing" drought areas are
based on the U.S. Drought Monitor
areas (intensities of D1 to D4).
Author:
Rich Tinker
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center
NOTE: The tan areas imply at least
a 1-category improvement in the
Drought Monitor intensity levels by
the end of the period, although
drought will remain. The green
areas imply drought removal by the
end of the period (D0 or none).
Drought persists/intensifies
Drought remains but improves
Drought removal likely
Drought development likely
http://go.usa.gov/hHTe
Department of Geography, University of Nevada Reno
Douglas P. Boyle