` How might regional production networks be shaped by regional agreements on standards? John Humphrey Caris Conference, Sussex, May 2008 Two meanings of deep integration Process: Reducing barriers, harmonisation, etc. Regional trade agreements one route Outcome(deep market integration): Regional production systems Enhanced division of labour Productivity increases 2 Share of parts and components in machinery trade (%) 80 1990 2000 Per Cent 70 60 50 40 30 ina nesia h C o Ind nd rea aysia pines a o l i K l Ma Philip Tha Source: Ng and Yeats, 2003, pp. 34-35. an p a J China Processing Trade, 1999 Imports Other S. Korea Singapore Taiwan US & EU Japan Source: Lemoine and Ünal-Kesenci, 2004, p. 833 Exports Other Japan US & EU Source: Gourevitch et al. 1997 Source: Gourevitch et al. 1997 If we find vertical trade and regional production systems without the harmonisation of standards associated with deep integration, what difference would standards harmonisation make? a) Given that standards are heterogeneous, what might be the impact of different types of standards on “real market integration”? b) Under what circumstances do we expect “global” standards, whether public or private, to make regional harmonisation redundant? Standards and transnational company regional networks Regional product standards largely superfluous Product standards often defined globally: IEEE, colour descriptors in textiles etc. Regional offshoring based on company standards Service standards more important : Banking standards and regulatory environment Transport standards and regulations Migration and mobility arrangements: Visas, recognition of qualifications, etc. . Harmonisation of prior national standards consumption markets To create regional consumption patterns Harmonise national product standards in region Eliminate standards as barriers Reduce transactions costs Services standardisation New regional product standards to facilitate vertical trade Standards change regional value chains Increase vertical trade: Currently, intra-firm or direct firm-to-firm dealings – processing trade More outsourcing, including to local companies Increase production concentration Centralised production, decentralised consumption 11 Harmonised standards and regional trade Facilitates trade and supply chains linking smaller companies, who have higher transactions costs. Reduces costs of localisation of supply chains for foreign-invested companies – standard products Allows companies easier access to regional market Harmonisation of “services” helps all manufacturing firms Reduces costs of customisation by codifying information Pre-Trade Vertical Trade Country A Country A Stage 3 Country B Country B Stage 2 Country C Country C Stage 1 13 Pre-Trade Country Specialisation Country A Country B Country C Country A Country B 14 Country C Conclusion Harmonised standards will make a difference even in the presence of deep market integration TNCs with regional production networks benefit from service standard harmonisation Standards will facilitate outsourcing Standards will facilitate centralised production for regional market Standards will enable more outsourcing between firms previously producing within national boundaries