Millennium Project
Beijing Node Report of 2003
San Francisco, July 17- 18, 2003
Main Activities
A.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
M P activities:
• Round 2 of the Middle East Peace
Scenario Study
• Round 2 of the 2050 Science and
Technology Scenarios Study
Main Activities
B.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Publication
Following the three previous years’
publication of Chinese translation
of State of the Future, 2002 version
has been submitted in April and
expected the to be published in
September
C. Forums and conferences on
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
special hot future issues in China
• World Internet Ecocity Conference,
February- June, 2003
• Forum of Rethinking the urbanization
& Modernization after SARS
• Forum of ecological health & security
for sustainable future
• Beijing eco-vision scenario
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Forums of Hot Future
Issues in China
SARS
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
SARS is a kind of civilization,urbanization,
high-tech disease
• City >> Rural
• High building >> Low building
• High-tech medicine >> Self-health
care
• Strong people >> Elder and children
Health
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
• Physical & psychological individual
health
• Production & consumption process
health
• Local & regonal ecosystem health
• Cultural & political institutional
health
Terrible evolution
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Man is becoming more and more
fragile, lazy, slack and dependent
Wealth
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
• Gain is better and Top is proud?
• Lose is better and Middle is safe
Lessons from internet ecocity conference
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
•Main achievements of this internet conference
•Problems and weaknesses of this internet conference
•Improve communication and information exchange,
eco-scientific discussion culture
How to close the gap between science/ theory and
practice.
•Introduction of Internet-conference to China and
developing countries
•Win and integrate a wider public into the "ecocommunity"
ECOCITY: THE HUMAN
SETTLEMENT OF FUTURE
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
• General strategy between Eco-CITY and urbanization,
globalization, modernization
• State of the art of ecological philosophy, methodology &
aesthetics.
• Holistic approaches to the eco-complex of production/
consumption/ reduction.
• Methodological achievements in eco-assessment and ecoevaluation
• Adoption and integration of economy in ecology framework
• Eco-institution: policy, participation, integration
• Case-studies of Future: discussion & evaluation of realized cases
• Main restraints for faster urbanization (e.g.: car-based economy)
• Eco-culture and Eco-Networking in Eco-cities/ Eco-polis
• Global-regional-local / general and special
Beijing-Tianjin
Urbanization in China
Yangtze Delta
Pearl Delta
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Urbanization in China
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Long term impacts & strategies of rapid &
large scale urbanization in East China
• rapid economic growth
• high density development
• large scale urban sprawl
• dramatic increase of private car
• fast modernization of life style in
East China
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Characteristics of China’s Urbanization
• Beijing construction 2002: 30 million m2
area finished, 90-100 million m2 being
constructed
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
City：Cement Forestry？
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Long term impacts & strategies of rapid &
large scale urbanization in China
l Impacts on hydrological, meteorological, biological
and landscape process, ecological footprint and nature’s
service
l
Impacts on material, energy, capital and people
flow
l
Impacts on production mode, consumption style
and social behavior
l Threatening to people’s health and life security
l Internet culture and its influences on people’s life
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Long term impacts & strategies of rapid &
large scale urbanization in China
• Less controlled regional and urban ecosystem planning;
• Stagnancy and Exhaustion of Resource Input-Output;
• Fragmentation and Agglomeration in System Structure and
Function;
• Short-sighted & mechanism lacking in dealing with the
relationship between parts & whole;
• High stress and incompatibility of natural resources;
• The loss of traditional culture and identity;
• The widening of social and regional gaps.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Eco-vision of Beijing City
• rapid economic growth
• high density development
• large scale urban sprawl
• dramatic increase of private car
• fast modernization of life style in
East China
Ancient Beijing landscape
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
“是邦之地，左环沧海，右拥太行，北枕居庸，南襟河济，形胜甲于天下。”
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Bicycle Kindom
Transition into car city
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
1%
Car Taxi
3%
9%
23%
18
4%
5%
Bus, subway
27%
2000年
32%
58%
bicycle
38%
Beijing
mobility
1986年
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100
%
自行车
公共交通
小客车
出租车
其他
87年北京城市绿化现状图
87年北京市热岛分布图
01年北京城市绿化现状图
01年北京市热岛分布图
——北京市城市规划设计研究院
2003.06
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
1985
Built up area of
Beijing
2001
1991
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Rethinking a more sustainable future
Learn experiences from
traditional civilization (symbiosis,
resource recycling and selfreliance) to reform industrial
civilization (competition, nature
exploitation and profit driving) in
an eco-cybernetical way.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Rethinking a more sustainable future
•
limited carrying capacity of the planet
can not maintain the high quality of life
experienced in industrialized countries
like US;
• switch the development goal from
material wealth to include individual
and ecosystem health and spiritual faith
as well is absolutely necessary.
eco
culture
eco-
scape
ecoindustry
ecosecurity
ecosanitation
Five Facets of
Ecocity
Development
---- from
Shenzhen Ecocity
Declaration
Five Facets of Ecocity Development (1)
Source
源
Flow
流
Ecosanitation
Sink
汇
生态卫生
Pool
库
Mind
心
Five Facets of Ecocity Development (2)
Water
饮水
Food
食物
Ecosecurity
Life
生命
生态安全
Environs
栖境
Disaster
灾害
Five Facets of Ecocity Development (3)
Inter-sectorial
coupling
Life
cycle
coupling
Ecoindustry
生态产业
Regional
coupling
Functional Econiche
orientation adaptation
Five Facets of Ecocity Development (4)
Geo地理
Hydro水文
Ecoscape
Bio生物
生态景观
Aero大气
Anthro人文
Five Facets of Ecocity Development
Cognition
认知
Food & shelter
Wealth & Utility
Morality & ethics
Ethics
伦理
Ecoculture
生态文化
Tangible
物态
believing & values
Understanding the world
Institution
Intangible
体制
心态
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Five models for sustainable future
in China
• Top-down demonstration model
• Self-initiating & ambitious driving model
• Bottom-up self-sustaining & demanddriving model
• Scientific catalyzing & academic inspiring
model
• International cooperation based passive
model
Long term impacts
•
•
•
•
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Watershed exhaustion;
Natural resource deterioration;
Ecosystem service declination;
Heavy pollution industry transformed
from east;
• Environmental impacts of large water
and energy engineering project;
• Widening gap between urban and rural
area, between richer and poor area.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Key issues for eco-security
l Social eco-security: plague, poverty,
injustice, inequity, religion, isolation,
desperation
l Economic eco-security: counterecologically production, consumption,
reduction, circulation and regulation
l Natural eco-security: system level
disorder in water, fire, soil, wood and
metal
W
H
F
+
+
+
II
+
+
-
III
-
+
-
IV
-
+
+
V
+
-
+
VI
+
-
-
VII
-
-
-
VIII
-
-
+
WIN-WIN-WIN：I
Wealth
Health
Faith
Future Integration
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Capitalism
Socialism
efficiency
equity
Sustainable
Future
Environmentalism
vitality
Future Integration
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Science & Technology
knowledge
Believing
Future
spirit
Governance
order
Marketing
well being
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Global Harmony
Man & Nature be in one
God & Satan be in one
Rich & Poor be in one
Thanks!
Beijing Node for Millennium Project
18 Shuangqing Road, Beijing 100085,
Email：wangrs@mail.rcees.ac.cn