:
Progress Report on Synthesis of Technical Panels and Preliminary Scenarios Development
AAFC
CFIA
CSA
CRC
DND
EC
FOC
HC
IC
NRC
NRCan
NSERC

TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is…
Systematic exploration of the longer-term future of science and technology, and their
potential impacts on society, with a view to identifying emerging factors driving change, and the areas of scientific research and technological development likely to influence change and yield the greatest economic,
environmental and social benefits over the next 10-25 years.
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The ideas, potential developments and prospective events envisioned in this report have been identified by participants as situations that could occur in the future. They do not purport to be predictive. The approach we are taking relies upon consulting a wide range of expertise, with the expectation that through our collective experience, imaginative abilities and interactive knowledge of technological development pathways, we can begin to construct a coherent view of some of the major developments that can be anticipated within a 10-25 time horizon.
This is the nature of foresight - creating a range of plausible future elements that in their diversity should alert readers to the kinds of issues and perspectives they may not have initially considered in longer term research planning and contingency thinking.
Accordingly, this report reflects the combined views of the participants, and the best wisdom and creative thinking that we could stimulate with the tools of foresight, but it clearly does not represent an official view of the Government of Canada or any of its
Departments and or Agencies.
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•
Pilot project proposed by NRC, endorsed by FINE DMs and
ADMs.
•
Pilot project independent of any other S&T funding.
•
Funded by participating agencies.
• Multi-departmental Working Group identified 2 key technology sectors for study:
–
GEOSTRATEGICS : including geo-spatial data sensing, gathering, artificial intelligence, pattern analysis and knowledge management.
– BIOSYSTEMICS : including nano to global biotechnology, eco and food systems, emergent and convergent trends in health, genomics & disease mitigation and cognitive science.
• Project Team led by NRC Office of Technology Foresight composed of seconded staff and consultants
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• Create a futures context & discussion framework for the development of policies, agendas & investment strategies for S&T and R&D.
• Initiate a network to create discussion and emerging consensus on where and how to collaborate among departments, agencies & other stakeholders.
• Strengthen & focus networks of collaboration among
Canadian & international experts in advanced 'geo' and
'bio' S&T.
• Design and test a collaborative learning methodology and process for the inclusion of S&T input to the policy process.
5

Society and Politics
Economics and Finance
Science and Technology
Communities of Practice
6

• Alignment along priority areas
• Often operate as specialty ‘silos’
• Use S&T as a specialty skill set
• Compete for attention and funding
•
May have conflicting priorities:
– Environment vs. Resource management
– Economic development vs. Security
– Short term efficiency vs Long term effectiveness
– Opportunities may be missed or problems narrowed to comply with mission boundaries
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• Alignment based on horizontal, affiliated disciplines with traditional ways of working together on broad issues
• Society and Politics
– Value-based, distributes authority
– Operates on political, executive level
• Economics and Finance
– Money-based, distributes resource
– Operates at central bureaucratic level
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• Knowledge-based, distributes capability
•
Fragmented, does not act as a true horizontal policy vector
•
Traditions of inter-disciplinarity only now developing
• Significant innovation potential
– Efficiency of existing programs
–
Formulation of new policies
– Avoidance of problems created by a purely commercial research agenda
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Sustainability science;
Remote environmental sensing
Metabolomics;
Technology convergence/genetics
DNA-based early warning;
Advanced power systems
Microbial ecosystems;
Remote diagnosis/diseases
Personalized medicine;
Biotechnology;
Human global health/environment
Predictive modelling;
Security/Info systems, networks
Integrated nanotechnology
Regenerative medicine
Advanced computational systems
Climate change from space
Sustainable manufacturing
Intelligent robotics systems
Space for environmental security
Biomass energy
Changing northern environment
Space-enabling technologies
Biodiversity/Invasive species
Canada’s sea floor
Virtual ocean
Proteomics/economy, health
Space Surveillance and National Security
Intelligent Autonomous Systems.
Clean hydrocarbons, H
2
Sensors/Activators - health
Biodiversity info for KBE
Security of Info Infrastructure
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The future horizons and applications of geo-spatial data and related knowledge management technologies for decision support, including pattern recognition software, wireless communications infrastructure futures, and links to major new capacities in surveillance, ecological monitoring and resource management technologies.
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How will geo-strategic knowledge, technology and prospective applications likely to be available in 2015 reshape our understanding of Canada, its land, sea and air/space resources, and provide new capabilities for national security, and the stewardship and sustainability of Canada’s resources?
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The convergence of nanotechnology, ecological science, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences, and their prospective impacts on materials science, the management of complex public systems for bio-health, eco and food system integrity and disease mitigation.
13

How can the federal government better understand the complexities and interdependencies of Canada’s food, health and environmental systems, and develop a 10+ year horizon of actionable intelligence for research and policy in these areas, given new knowledge about emergence, behavior of populations, disease ecology, genomics, etc.?
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• Scale
– Nano-scale observations at low end
– Data handling and simulation at high end
• Convergence
– Unity at the material level
• Consilience
– High level models may result in unity at theoretical level
• Emergence
– Seeking to understand rules for networks, tipping points, systems structure, chaos and complexity
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Exa
Peta
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
Hecto
Deca
1
Deci
Centi
Milli
Micro
Nano
Pico
Femto
Atto ecology bioinformatics epidemiology
Giga scale
Increased
Understanding of systems
Dynamics & integration
Physics Chemistry Biology biogeneration
Genetic engineering
Semiconductor photonics genomics
Nanoscale
Increased ability
To observe &
Work with matter
At atomic level
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Computers Biotech
Networks
Bits
Genes
Neurons
Atoms
Nanotech
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Nano Bio Info/Cogno
• Unity of theory and knowledge
• Vertical integration using computational models
• Hybrid technologies
– Nano-medecine
– Quantum computing
• May well include social sciences
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•
We approach Geostrategics from a application perspective, as opposed to the technology areas offered in Biosystemics.
•
6 Topics Identified by the Scoping workshop:
1. Environment & Resources
2. National Security & Emergency
3. Transportation
4. Sustainable Cities and Urban Development
5. Heath Risks and Hazards
6. Ocean and Inland Water Resources
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Geoscience
Climatology
Photonics
Nanotechnology
Atmospheric Science
Biology
Robotics
Knowledge
Management
Systems
Enable:
•
•
•
•
•
• Two week weather prediction
Climate/ environmental prediction
Land/ biosphere prediction
Prediction of air/water quality
Prediction of natural hazards
Efficient management of resources
Renewable Energy
Urban Studies
Advanced
Materials
IT = Information Technology
Meteorology
Oceanography
Mapping
Ecology
Real-Time Systems
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Sensors
Sensor Web
Information Synthesis
Access to Knowledge
Science & Architectures
Sensors
• 3D Detectors
• Non-Linear Optics
•
Tunable Lidar
•
Advanced microwave
• Micro Lidar
• Warm Focal Planes
•
Large Telescopes and
Antennas
• Biological Markers
Sensorweb
• Adaptive Data
Management
• Automated Calibration
•
Reconfigurable
Communications
• Autonomous Operations
•
Multi-Functional
Structures
•
Rad-Tolerant
Microelectronics
Information Synthesis
•
Space/Ground Programming Env.
• Reconfiguration Management
• Open Model Architecture
•
Parallel Systems
• Geo-spatial DBMS
• Standards & Protocols
Access to Knowledge
•
Human Computer Interface for
Geo-Spatial Datasets
•
Collaborative Environments
• Distributed Visualization
• High Bandwidth Delivery Systems
• Data Mining/Dynamic Data Fusion
• Geo-reference Standards
Source: Dr. Bob Ryerson, NRCan
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DELIVERABLES & REPORTING
• Summaries of results for each stage: scoping workshops; technical panels; synthesis, and scenarios.
• High priority 'robust' + disruptive or transformative technologies.
• Potential collaborative R&D strategies.
• Potential new planning and contingency roles or foci for government, industry and academia.
• Suggestions for action, including; horizontal
S&T/R&D mechanisms and partnerships, capacity requirements, best practices, & improvements to project methodology.
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Present
•Nanotubes
•Nano-coatings
•Liposomes
•Lapping compounds
Convergence
•Microbivores
•Photonic crystals
•Molecular switching
•Sensors
Future
•Quantum dots
•Catalyst
•SET
•Self-org manufacture
Consilience
•Reproduction of natural processes
(DNA)
•Enable macro n/w
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Present
•Moore’s Law
•Internet
•Data Mining
•Simulation
Convergence
•Bio-interface
•Asynchronous
•Low energy chip
•Gigaflop modeling
Future
•AI - Smart
•Controls
•Autonomic
•Pervasive
Consilience
•Singularity – change so rapid it can only be managed by transhumans
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Present
•Top-down models
•Epidemiology
•Model results
•H. Scale dynamics
Convergence
•Biological models
•Replication
•Adaptation
•Heuristic
Future
•Bottom-up
•Eco-epidemiology
•Model basic activity
•Micro-dynamics
Consilience
•Unified world view will require high level of cross-disciplinary education.
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Present:
• Distributed silos
• Fragmented data collection
• Fragmented infrastructure, systems
• Some
Interconnections
• Data focused
• Lack of real-time coverage, data, systems
• Difficult data integration
Future:
• Integrated Geo Utility at system level
• Open system integrated infrastructure
• Integrated data collection
• Seamless to users; “get what you want when you want it”
• Real-time coverage, data and systems
• Significantly wireless
• Integrated, inexpensive sensors
• AI and pattern recognition & pervasive surveillance
• Sensor webs with bio, physical, chemical and physical measurements
• Peer to peer calibration and validation real time
• Smart maps
• Smart systems
•
27 support focused for customers

• Technology acceptance (e.g. privacy vs. security)
• International conflicts, war
• Terrorist attacks (chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear, information, internet)
• Unexpected natural disasters
(floods, droughts, hurricanes etc.)
• Climate change acceleration
• Satellite, ground station failures
• Collapse of the economy, financial system
• Collapse of the United Nations, change in world order
• Human made disasters and accidents (e.g. Walkerton, genetic accident)
• Technology breakthroughs or commercialization of unknown military technologies with significant impact
• Pandemic
• Interstellar events
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•
Nanotechnology
•
Designer materials
• Increasing information processing power of semiconductors, photonic,
DNA, quantum computing
•
High speed, high bandwidth communications
•
Semantic internet
•
Smart systems and agents
• Autonomic software (self-repair and automatic code generation)
•
Wireless communications, including peer to peer communications and computing
•
Portable fuel cells and new forms of power generation
•
Real-time information systems
•
Robotics, nanorobotics
• Organic, bio sensors
•
Integrated, inexpensive, smart sensors
(nano, bio, chemical, physical, optical)
•
New human-machine interfaces (e.g. direct link to the brain)
• Virtual reality based visioning and decision-support tools
• Telepresence
•
Smart vehicle technologies
•
Geopositioning systems
• Micro, nano satellite constellations
•
Ocean technologies
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• Axes of Uncertainty : boundaries of expectation, quadrants of contrast
• Themes that Colour : technovectors and societal receptions; social diversity
• Projective Analytics : projecting the present and adding “spice to the space”
• Wildcards and Inversions : thinking the unthinkable and the reversals
• S&T Emergent & Determinant : technology as the dominant driver and critical differentiator
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• Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies
• Informing R&D planners, policy makers
• Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking
• Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights
• Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologies
• Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments
• Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts
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• GAIA Strikes Back – technology
& systems collapses, pervasive barriers
•
Agility Advantage Can : succeeding, adapting, competing, diversifying
• Co-Evolu-Innova-tion : Gov’t & communities as co-innovators
• Insecure Cocoon : terrorism unchecked, ever present
• Virtual Avatar: cyber-reality
• Genomic Anomic : biotech transformations & upsets
• Comfortably Numb : big brother takes care through technology
• Birkenstock Bicycle : toward assured sustainability
• Cool is Cruel : cultural fixations for technology, & fast shifts
• O Say Can You C AmeriCanada?:
Canada slow merge into the USA
• Navigation Net : fully enabled wireless net functionality
• Techno Freak : reversals of sociotechnical potential into problems
• Other Sides : parallel worlds of values & technology co-existing
• True North Long & Narrow : life on the fringe
• Invisible Hand : vibrant 21 st century marketplaces
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