State of the Future
and the
Global Futures
Collective Intelligence System
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project
UN
Universities
Organizations
Millennium
Project Governments
Corporations
NGOs
… May become a TransInstitution
46 Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews,
special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
39 Chapters
1,300 pages
Largest
collection of
Internationally
peer-reviewed
methods to
explore the
future ever
assembled in
one source
15 Global Challenges
How can
sustainable
development
How
can sustainable
developmentbe
be
1
achieved
for
all
while
addressing
achieved for all while addressing global
global climate change?
climate change?
2
How
can
have
sufficient
How
caneveryone
everyone have
sufficient
clean
waterwithout
without conflict?
clean
water
conflict?
15
How
can
ethical
How
can
ethical considerations
considerations
3
How can
population
growth
and
How
can
population
growth
and
become
moreroutinely
routinely
become
more
resources
be
brought
into
balance?
resources be brought into balance?
incorporatedinto
into global
decisions?
incorporated
global
decisions?
4
14
How
can
democracy
How
cangenuine
genuine democracy
How
can
and
How
canscientific
scientific and
emergefrom
from authoritarian
emerge
authoritarian
technological
technological breakthroughs
breakthroughs be be
regimes?
accelerated
to
improve
the
regimes?
accelerated to improve the
5
human condition?
How
Howcan
can policymaking
policymaking be be
human condition?
13
mademore
more sensitive
to to
How
can
energy
made
sensitive
How
cangrowing
growing energy
global
long-term
demandsbe
bemet
met safely
and
demands
safely
and
global long-term
perspectives?
efficiently?
efficiently?
perspectives?
How
can transnational
6
12
How
can
How
canthe
the global
global
How cancrime
transnational
organized
networks be
convergence of
of information
organized crime networks be
convergence
information
stopped
from
becoming
more
and communications
stopped
from
becoming more
and communications
technologies work for
powerful
and
sophisticated
powerful
and
sophisticated
technologies
work for
everyone?
global
enterprises?
global
enterprises?
everyone?
7How
11
How
thechanging
changing
ethical
market
Howcan
can the
How can
can ethical
market
status
women
improve
statusof
of women
improve
economies be
encouraged
to
economies
be
encouraged
to
the
human
condition?
help
reduce
the
gap
between
the human condition?
help reduce the gap
rich and poor?
How
can
shared
values
and
new
10 How
between rich and poor?
can shared values and new
8
thethreat
threat
of new
Howcan
can the
of new
and and
security
strategies
reduce
ethnic How
security
strategies reduce
ethnic
reemerging
diseases
and
immune
conflicts,
terrorism, and
the
useuse
of of
reemerging diseases and immune
conflicts,
terrorism,
and
the
microorganisms be reduced?
weapons
of
mass
destruction?
microorganisms
be reduced?
weapons of mass destruction?
How
can
the
capacity
to
decide
be
9 How can the capacity to decide be
improved
thenature
nature
of work
improvedas
as the
of work
and and
institutions change?
change?
institutions
2012 State of the Future Index
Where are we winning?
1. Access to water
2. Literacy rate
3. Life expectancy at
birth
4. Poverty $1.25 a day
5. Infant mortality
6. Wars
7. HIV prevalence
8. Internet users
9. GDP/capita
10.Women in
parliaments
11.School enrollment,
secondary
12.Energy efficiency
13.Population growth
14.Undernourishment
prevalence
15.Nuclear proliferation
Where are we losing?
1.
2.
3.
4.
Total debt
5. GHG emissions
Unemployment
6. Terrorist attacks
Income inequality 7. Voter turnout
Ecological footprint/
biocapacity ratio
Where there is no significant
change or change is not clear
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Corruption
Freedom rights
Electricity from renewables
Forest lands
R&D expenditures
Physicians per capita
Overly Optimistic
Overly Pessimistic
Too Optimistic
Too Pessimistic
Too Pessimistic
Collective Intelligence
•
•
•
•
•
It is an emergent property
from synergies among
• data/info/knowledge
• software/hardware
• experts and others with insight
that continually learns from feedback
to produce (nearly) just in time knowledge for better
decisions
than these elements acting alone.
Each can change the other
Global Futures CIS
• Interoperable, Searchable, Editable
• For each of the 15 Global Challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Expert Discussion Groups
Bookmarklet scanning system
Use of RSS News Feeds Aggregator
Key web resources
Situation Chart to update and improve
Short and Long text to update and Improve
Related computer models
• Futures Research Methodology
• 39 Chapters with groups to update and improve
• All previous MP research
• Software (Models, Delphi, Futures Wheel, SOFI, Papers, briefings, Video)
For further information
Jerome C. Glenn
The Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW,
Washington, D.C. 20016 USA
+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
Jerome.Glenn@millennium-project.info
www.StateoftheFuture.org