Group Decision Optimization
with Delphi and Ontology
A Study For DARPA
Adam Pease
Articulate Software
Ted Gordon
Consultant
.
The
decision is
not likely to
have
serious
negative
consequenc
es
The
decision is
likely to be
effective
The
decision
can be
implemente
d quickly
Weights
Avg.: 4
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 5
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 7
Justify
Governments
modify
school
curricula to
remove
cultural
biases
Avg.: 4
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 5
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 2
Justify
The world
implements a
vastly
improved
disease early
warning
system
Avg.: 4
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 5
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 7
Justify
UN sponsors
vigorous antiterrorist
campaign
among
religious
leaders
Avg.: 4
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 5
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 7
Justify
The
proposed
decision is
plausible
The
decision is
likely to
provide
useful
feedback to
alter future
strategy
The
decision
has
reasonable
cost
Avg.: 7
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 6
Justify
Avg.: 8
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 9
Justify
Avg.: 3
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 4
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 4
Justify
Avg.: 7
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 6
Justify
Avg.: 8
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 9
Justify
Avg.: 3
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 4
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 4
Justify
Avg.: 7
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 6
Justify
Avg.: 8
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 9
Justify
Avg.: 3
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 4
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 4
Justify
Avg.: 7
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 6
Justify
Avg.: 8
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 9
Justify
Avg.: 3
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 4
Justify
Avg.: 6
Responses:
5
Reasons.
Input 1
Justify
Scores of proposed decisions so far:
Group
Score
Your Score
The world implements a vastly improved disease early
warning system
199
205
UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among
religious leaders
176
200
Governments establish dialogs with dissidents
150
210
The UN employs advanced detection systems for all of
its WMD on site inspections
175
195
Governments build redundancy into societal and
technical infrastructure
153
100
Governments modify school curricula to remove
cultural biases
150
75
0
20
Candidate Decisions
Systematically alter policy to defuse terrorist
recruitment
When you are satisfied with your inputs click save and it will be added to the group’s scoring.
Cell under consideration:
Candidate Decision: UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among religious leaders“
Criterion: The decision is likely to be effective
Given
Value
Reason
8
The question, it seems to me is whether anyone can call the religious
leaders together and point them in the same direction
5
As likely as not to be effective
2
This is bound to backfire
Global SOFI 2005
Objectives
•
How have the SOFI projections changed over time?
•
Are the data sources used for the variables contained in the SOFI during
the last five years still appropriate? If not what sources replace them?
•
Has the historical data provided by these sources changed over the years?
Even though history is history, some providers of data change the data they
published earlier as a result of new analysis techniques, changing
definitions, and late inputs from primary sources.
•
Forecasts of each variable were made in each year that SOFI was provided;
how do these forecasts compare to actual data now available in 2005?
•
Where the forecasts differ from actuality, are reasons apparent?
Five Years of SOFI: Variables
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
2. Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries
3. GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)
4. Pct of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries)
5. CO2 atmospheric, ppm
6. Annual population additions (millions)
7. Percentage of world population unemployed
8. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)
9. Annual AIDS deaths (millions)
10. Life Expectancy (years)
11. Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)
12. Debt/GNP Developing Countries (%)
13. Forest Lands (Million Hectares)
14. Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day
15. Terrorist Attacks (Number injured or killed)
16. Violent Crime 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)
17. Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free
18. School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)
19. Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries)
20. Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons
SOFI 2005
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
High in 2003 and Low in 2004
• The favorable data in 2003 included:
– A dip in the number of wars
– A dip in the ratio of debt to GDP
– Relative low terrorism casualties compared to 2001 and 2004
• And in 2004 the situation worsened because of
– An unexpectedly high number of terrorist caused casualties
– The percentage of people living in countries classed as not free
increased as a result of Russia being reclassified.
SPFI 2001- 2005
1.2
1.1
1
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
SOFI 2005 (with TIA)
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
14
12
10
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
Millions per Year
Population Additions
US Census Bureau, data and forecasts
90
85
80
2001
2002
2003
75
2004
2005
70
65
Four Questions
•
Are the data sources used for the variable still active and appropriate?
YES. US CENSUS BUREAU IS AUTHORITATIVE
•
Has the actual historical data provided by those sources changed?
YES
•
How do forecasts made in earlier years compare to actual data now available in
2005?
LOWER; THE CENSUS BUREAU’S FORECASTS NOW SHOW AN UP-TICK IN
POPULATION ADDITIONS LATER IN THIS DECADE.
•
Where the forecasts differ significantly, are reasons apparent?
CHANGING METHODS OF ESTIMATING AND INCORPORATION OF NEW AIDS
AND HIV DATA, RATES OF SURVIVAL INTO OLD AGE, AND INCORPORATION OF
THE RESULTS OF THE 2000 US CENSUS
Results Summary
Example
Variable
1.infant mortality rate (deaths
per 1,000 live births)
2. Food availability cal/cap in
developing countries
Are the data sources used for
the variable still active
and appropriate?
Yes. US Census Bureau:
Yes. FAOSTAT is the
authoritative source.
3. GDP per capita (constant
1995 $US
Yes. Source should be WDI
available on line with
subscription
4. Percentage of households w/
access to safe water (15
most populated
countries)
Data sources provide data only
at infrequent intervals;
the most consistent
seems to be WDI
Has the actual historical data
provided by those
sources changed?
How do forecasts made in
earlier years compare to
actual data now
available in 2005?
Very little
The forecasts by the us census
bureau have been quite
consistent
The small change in
expectations for 2010
between forecasts come
from data adjustments
made by US Census
Bureau.
A bit and further changes can
be expected as a result
of FAO’s updated
statistical methodologies
Comparison is good even
though a new
extrapolation technique
is being used.
Artifacts of methodologies
Yes, a bit
Yes
Excellent comparison
Current data are tracking well
Where the forecasts differ
significantly, are
reasons apparent?
Forecasts are comparable
Reasons not apparent
Terrorism Statistics
• US Department of State in its annual report titled Patterns of Global
Terrorism provided succinct and apparently accurate counts on the
number of terrorist incidents and the number of casualties
• This year however, the Department changed the report’s format and
omitted these statistics.
• The change in policy came after the release of figures that were
challenged as being too low.
• After the controversy “…. there were over 9,000 victims of significant
international terrorism last year, of which 1,907 were killed. ….”
Possible Ethics Scenarios
– The rise of trans-humanism
– New attitudes toward death
– The designed human
– The stasis of religion
– From ethics to law
Women’s Study
Round 1
Question Example
Women are the most significant suppliers of family labor and efficient managers of household food security.
They produce and manage over 50% of all the world’s goods and services in the unpaid sectors. In addition,
women (whether naturally or through acculturation) bear greater responsibility at al levels of society for nurture,
education, food production, cooperative sharing volunteering and conflict resolution. Mainstream economics
still treats these services of women as “un-economic” because they are usually unpaid.
1. Rural poor women have developed survival strategies that could be useful in developing local
economies; yet they are largely untapped.
2. Economic theory ignores many contributions made by women and the cost of replacement of
these goods and services.
Added suggestions
Round 2
Question Example
1. Gender Issues
Traditional cropping methods used by rural women are not fully
considered in the design of strategies to protect and sustain
the environment.
Adequate safe water sources are not available to women, as
household managers for their children and families.
Women are not involved in helping local communities to make a
sustainable use of water.
Information about means for limiting family size is often not
available to women and girls.
Women generally have little knowledge about how they can
participate in the process of democratization.
Women are largely under-represented in government bodies and
in other sectors of the public sphere.
2.
Importance
Globally
3.
Being Addressed
Globally
4.
Importance in my
Country
5.
Being Addressed in
my Country
Round 2
Question Example
1. Future Development
1A. Improving the efficiency of water use in agriculture by 75%.
1B. Cheap, efficient, means for providing potable water from salt or brackish sources at prices
comparable to naturally available water in quantities sufficient to ease global water issues.
1D. Demonstration of methods to improve collective intelligence while reducing anti-social behavior.
1E. Demonstration of the possibility of an environmentally, economically, and culturally sustainable city
of at least 1 million people.
1F. Simple, inexpensive, effective medicines and corresponding delivery systems to treat widespread
diseases and epidemics
2.
Impact
(positive or
negative
)
3.
Importance to
women
if it were
to occur
4.
Likelihood by
2030
Round 3
Question Example
• Focus on actions
• May be interviews