.
2004 SOFI
For the Millennium Project
Planning Committee
July 30, 2004
SOFI Evolution
Year 1: Initial experiment. Projections were
single value.
Year 2: Trend Impact Analysis introduced;
judgments made by staff.
Year 3: Sensitivity test involving high AIDS,
proliferation and WMD by terrorists.
Year 4: Judgments made by panel; node
SOFI's.
Changes From 2003 SOFI
For the SOFI
Global panel estimates of best and worst values of 20 variables and
their weights
More precise definitions of some variables
Use of new or improved sources for the historical data
Updated historical data
For the TIA's:
Global panel judgments about future developments that could affect
the variables.
Staff synthesized developments into a most important set
New baseline forecasts
Identified levels of uncerainty
Inputs From The Global Panel
Round 1 asked for inputs for SOFI:
Best and Worst outlook for 20 SOFI variables
Weights for the best and worst cases
Developments that could change the course of the SOFI
variables
Round 2 asked for judgments about likelihood, impact and
timing of the developments
Demography
Regional Demographics
Middle East & North Africa (2)
0.8%
North America (28)
10.9%
Africa (6)
2.3%
Latin America (101)
Asia & Oceania (51)
39.1%
19.8%
Sectoral Demographics
Europe (70)
27.1%
Other(24)
7.7%
IO (9)
2.9%
Univeristy (91)
29.4%
Government (49)
15.8%
Corporation (42)
13.5%
NGO (54)
Ind. Consultant (41)
13.2%
17.4%
Projections and Weights
1983
Infant Mort
2003
Best
Worst
Wt Best
Wt Wrst
86.7
52.4
30.0
50.0
3.706
3.714
Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries
2382.0
2740.0
3,000.0
2,775.0
3.726
3.842
GNP per capita
4,335
5,675
6,525.0
5,700.0
3.397
3.574
Percentage of Households w/ Access to Safe Water
60.7
80.9
90.0
80.4
4.015
3.967
CO2 atmospheric, ppm
337.9
367.5
370.0
400.0
4.094
4.231
Annual population additions millions
80.6
73.9
60.0
72.0
3.770
3.900
5.6
7.0
6.0
9.0
3.636
3.846
Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)
64.9
78.0
85.0
80.0
4.095
4.131
Annual AIDS deaths (millions)
0.00
3.10
2.0
5.0
3.714
3.741
Life Expectancy
56.8
63.8
70.0
64.0
3.500
3.531
31
25
15.0
30.0
4.098
4.133
Debt/GNP; Developing Countries (%)
24.7
42.9
35.0
50.0
3.655
3.887
Forest Lands (Million Hectares)
4087
3897
4,000.0
3,700.0
3.875
4.037
Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day
2295
2884
2,400.0
3,139.5
3.982
4.125
Terrorist Attacks
739
3361
1,000.0
4,000.0
3.719
3.836
Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 population)
1151
1077
900.0
1,175.5
3.517
3.625
Pct. World Population Living in Countries Not Free
41.7
35.0
25.0
35.0
3.458
3.589
48
69
80.0
70.0
4.067
4.140
70.6
97.8
99.0
95.0
3.684
3.946
14
17
12.0
20.0
3.759
4.089
Percent unemployed
Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr)
School Enrollment, secondary (% school age)
Percentage of population with access to local health care
Proliferation
.
.
Annual AIDS deaths (millions)
Terrorist Attacks
Number of Armed Conflicts (at lea
Proliferation
Percent unemployed
Infant Mort
Debt/ GNP; Developing Countrie
Violent Crime, 17 Countries (per
Percent of World Population Livi
Number of People Living on Less
Annual population additions millio
School Enrollment, secondary (%
GNP per capita PPP (constant 1
Percentage of Households w/ A
Life Expectancy (World)
Food availability Cal/ cp Developi
CO2 atmospheric, ppm
Forest Lands (Million Hectares)
Literacy rate, adult total (% of peo
Percentage of population with ac
Uncertainty
100*(Best-Worst)/2003 Value
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Developments: Probability,
Impact and Timing
.
1 Infant Mortality
Rate (deaths per
1,000 live births)
2. Food availability
Calories per capita
in Developing
Countries
1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost
contraceptives.
59.9
-3.51
11.1
1.2 China and India becomes 50% urbanized
52.3
-3.70
16.4
1.3 Social marketing and public health education changes
some critical health practices of 10% of people
62.6
-3.81
8.7
1.4 Standard vaccinations of 70% of all children under five
years
57.5
-4.46
7.2
1.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75% of women
49.3
-4.08
9.2
1.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches
85%
47.4
-3.57
11.9
1.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15%
60.5
3.08
7.6
1.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world
diminishes by 50%.
43.1
-3.92
8.4
2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20% due to counter-terrorism
and/or disease prevention practices.
59.9
-3.60
4.8
2.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world
diminishes by 50%. (See 1.8))
43.1
2.66
9.6
2.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free
vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries
45.9
2.76
9.5
2.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and
distribution reducing food waste by 10%.
57.5
2.76
7.6
2.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including
climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2% of the
world’s crops
60.8
-3.73
7.8
2.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in
arable land of 3%.
66.5
-4.13
10.2
Weights
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
Weight "Worst"
4
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4
Weight "Best"
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Interpretation of Likelihood
Likelihood by or before 2014
•
•
•
•
•
5 = almost certain
4 = very likely
3 = as likely as not
2 = unlikely
1 = almost certainly not
= 90%
= 75%
= 50%
= 25%
= 5%
Interpretation
of Impact Ratings
Impact (percent) =
(median of the panel’s input-1) / 4 x (max plausible percentage)
Maximum Plausible Impact
Variable
Max
Plausible
Impact
(%)
Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
3
Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries
4
GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US)
20
Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15 Most
Populated Countries)
8
CO2 atmospheric, ppm
10
A Special Problem
• There were many cases where the impacts were obviously negative
and yet the respondents’ answers indicated positive impacts.
• Why?
– Instructions about the possibility using a negative impact were not
emphasized
– Because “negative” and “positive” impacts could be interpreted as
either:
• Moving the curve up or down
• Moving the curve in a beneficial or detrimental direction
• Intent:
– A positive impact means that if the development were to occur, the
variable it affected would increase in numerical value, even if this were
a socially unfavorable direction.
– A negative impact would mean that if the development were to occur,
the variable it affected would decrease in numerical value, even if this
were a socially favorable direction.
Solution:
Assigned Impact Values
4.1 Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20% globally
4.2 New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10% per unit of agricultural production.
4.3 Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water; drought in others, makes water 5% less available on the
whole.
4. Percent of Households with
access to safe water (15
Most Populated
Countries)
4.4 Improved sanitation increases clean surface water by 5%
4.5 World population growth of 20% (See 2.10)
4.6 Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies able in the poorest regions
4.7 Construction and use of high volume inter-watershed pipelines
4.8 Terrorists contaminating water supplies; supplies remain unusable for decades.
Trend Impact Results
Food Availability
100.0
2500
90.0
2450
80.0
70.0
Base
60.0
UQ
50.0
MED
40.0
LQ
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Cal/Cap (Develop[ing Countries)
Deaths per 1,000 live births
Infant Mortality Rate
2400
2350
UQ
2250
MED
2200
LQ
2150
2100
2050
2000
1980
2015
Base
2300
1985
GNP per Capita
5000
Base
UQ
4000
MED
LQ
3000
2000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Percent (15 Most Populated Countries)
1995 Dollars per Person
6000
1985
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Percentage of Households with Safe Water
7000
1000
1980
1990
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
Base
80.0
UQ
75.0
MED
70.0
LQ
65.0
60.0
55.0
50.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Trend Impact Results (2)
Population Additions (Annual)
Atmospheric CO2
88
390.0
86
380.0
84
82
360.0
Base
350.0
UQ
MED
340.0
Millions
Parts per Million
370.0
MED
LQ
74
320.0
72
310.0
300.0
1980
UQ
78
76
LQ
330.0
Base
80
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
70
1980
2015
1985
1990
2005
2010
2015
90
8
7
6
Base
5
UQ
4
MED
LQ
3
2
1
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Pct of People (age 15 and above)
9
Percent Unemployed
2000
Literacy Rate
Unemployment
0
1980
1995
85
80
Base
UQ
75
MED
LQ
70
65
60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Trend Impact Results (3)
Annual Aids Deaths
Life Expectancy
4.5
70
4
68
3.5
66
64
Base
2.5
UQ
MED
2
Years
Millions
3
MED
LQ
56
1
54
0.5
52
0
1980
UQ
60
58
LQ
1.5
Base
62
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
50
1980
2015
1985
1990
2005
2010
2015
40
35
30
Base
25
UQ
20
MED
15
LQ
10
5
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
With over 1,000 Deaths per Year)
40
With over 1,000 Deaths per Year)
2000
Number of Armed Conflicts
Number of Armed Conflicts
0
1980
1995
35
30
Base
25
UQ
20
MED
15
LQ
10
5
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Trend Impact Results (4)
Forest Lands
People Living on Less Than #2/day
3500
4900
3000
4500
Base
UQ
4300
MED
4100
LQ
3900
Millions of People
Million Hectares
4700
Base
2500
UQ
MED
2000
LQ
1500
3700
3500
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1000
1980
2015
1985
Terrorist Attacks
2000
2005
2010
2015
1300
9000
1200
8000
7000
Base
6000
UQ
5000
MED
4000
LQ
3000
2000
Per 100,000 population
Number of Killed or Wounded
1995
Violent Crime (17 Countriees)
10000
1100
Base
1000
UQ
900
MED
800
LQ
700
600
1000
0
1980
1990
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
500
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Trend Impact Results (5)
School Enrollment (Secondary)
People in Countries Not Free
100
45.0
90
30.0
Base
25.0
UQ
20.0
MED
LQ
15.0
Pct School Age
35.0
10.0
80
Base
UQ
70
MED
LQ
60
50
5.0
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
40
1980
2015
1985
1990
Access to Local Health Care
100
30
95
25
90
Base
UQ
85
MED
LQ
80
75
70
1980
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Nuclear Proliferation
Number of Countries
Percent (15 most populated countries)
Percent World Population
40.0
20
Base
UQ
15
MED
LQ
10
5
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
SOFI 2004
State of the Future Index 2004
1.3
1.2
1.1
Baseline
1.0
LQ
Med
0.9
UQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
SOFI Comparison
Comparison of SOFI's
1.3
1.2
B Line 04
LQ 04
1.1
Med 04
1.0
UQ 04
B Line 03
0.9
LQ 03
0.8
Med 03
UQ 03
0.7
0.6
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
.
Expectations
"Best" Minus Median TIA Forecast
100* (Best- Median TIA)/Median
Terrorist A ttacks
A nnual A IDS deaths (millions)
Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries
Number of A rmed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/
Nuclear P roliferation
P ercent unemployed
Debt/GNP ; Developing Countries (% )
Number of P eople Living on Less than $2 per day
Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
P ercent of World P opulation Living in Countries t
A nnual population additions millions
GNP per capita P P P (constant 1995 $US )
Life E xpectancy
CO2 atmospheric, ppm
S chool E nrollment, secondary (% school age)
P ercentage of Households w/ A ccess to S afe Wat
Forest Lands (Million Hectares)
TIA worse than panel’s “best”
Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and
P ercentage of population with access to local hea
V iolent Crime, 17 Countries (per 100,000 populat
-100
-80
-60
-40
Percent
-20
0
20
.
SOFI Computation
Estimates of Best
and Worst Values
Raw Data for
Each Variable
Baseline Calculation
Statplan
Sheet 1
Trend Impact
Analysis
Event Statements
Event/ Variable
Matrix
Estimates of
Probability and
Impacts
Sheet 2
Sheet 3
Variables:
Best and Worst
Weights
SOFI
Calculation
Sheet 4
Sensitivity Test
• Development: “Weapons of mass destruction
used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people”
– Panel:
• Probability by 2013: 51.33%
• Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people
killed or wounded:” 15.2%
• Time for the impact: 7 years
– New:
• Probability by 2013: 51.33%
• Impact on the variable: “Terrorist Attacks, number of people
killed or wounded:” 1,250% (about 100,000 people)
• Time for the impact: 0.25 years
High Impact Event
Terrorist Attacks
Number of Killed or Wounded
120000
100000
80000
Base
UQ
60000
MED
LQ
40000
20000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
A Different Future
State of the Future Index 2004
1.3
1.2
1.1
Baseline
1.0
LQ
Med
0.9
UQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Policy Simulation
Development
Orig
Prob
Orig
Impact
Orig
Timing
New
Prob
New
Impact
New
Timing
51.33
1,250
0.25
10
1,250
0.25
52.6
-4.23
9.5
75
-50
5
15.2: “Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000
people”
9.4 “Developed nations commit the resources necessary to end AIDS and
treat HIV”
Effect of Policies
State of the Future Index 2004
1.3
1.2
1.1
Baseline
1.0
LQ
Med
0.9
UQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015